[AusRace] Classifying runners - a system

[Tony Moffat]

Past performance racehorse analysts have a problem - how to determine class.
Others say it's in the breeding, most others say it's in ability especially
that which seems to enable one runner to dominate the rivals in a race, to
stare them down it is said, written. 

Look, chromosomes aside, and that 'eye of the tiger' assertion is wandering
into witchcraft territory, there may be an answer arithmetically.

There are a couple of methods in literature. Paul Renniks did some work and
published papers and a book about this, and most things. Pro Calibre (that's
the name s/he uses folks) went deep into decimal points in another, though
similar, method. Allan De Lisle is another who uses places gained as a
method of defining class.

First Renniks:

Multiply the wins by 1, multiply the seconds by .33, multiply the thirds by
.16. Add these together and compare then divide this number, (the addition
completion) into the total prizemoney won by this runner (and rank the
results - I added this bit). It seemed like a non-event to me, in that the
good scores rarely correlated to a win, or place, and yes, it didn't improve
if I went from the bottom up, or the top down.

De Lisle asked:

Multiply first by 1 , seconds by .75, 3rds by .5, fourth places gained by
.33, fifth places by .25, unplaced by .20 then sum the first three of these
to get the first score for each runner. The other data is used in continuing
equations (which I won't divulge here) but prizemoney won is a component as
is the prizemoney this race, and, importantly, the runners beaten until this
point.  There was a rating method sold by an English stockbroker based on
this (Marsdon?)

Pro Calibre  said:

The last three runs determines the quality of the racehorse, regardless of
the time line involved, or if there is a spell in there, the last three
outings tell us everything.

(a) Look at the form of the favourite then look for runners with similar or
better form. 123 is not as good as 122 and 121 and 111 are better than both.
To simplify, and expedite, circle every place for every runner out to 4th
place and make decisions off the number of circles applied to the last three
runs of each entrant. 99% of placing runners have a 4 or better in their
form line (I am quoting the author now) so form inside and including 4 is
important (they said paramount)

(b) next time, maybe

Cheers

Tony




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