[AusRace] The Four Factor - a system

[norsaintpublishing at gmail.com]

Sounds bloody complicated Tony. All these systems do.


On Fri, 6 Aug 2021 at 17:58, Tony Moffat <tonymoffat at bigpond.com> wrote:

> I wrote:
> "I'll have another read of the literature and see if I have it working as
> it
> should - I'll let you know."
>
> Re this - I can't see how to re-do this differently.
>
> I have the four(4) pages of instruction scanned if anybody wants a copy let
> me know.
>
> Cheers again
>
> Tony
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
> Sent: Wednesday, 4 August 2021 10:37 PM
> To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
> Subject: [AusRace] The Four Factor - a system
>
> 'FormFlash' scores (ratings) were sold in the 70's by Turf Monthly staff
> and/or affiliates - I subscribed for a while, I got them cheaper with a
> subscription to the magazine.
>
> (a)The Four Factor (FF) was a happenstance that they promoted. It was often
> seen that a good run three starts ago could be replicated in the upcoming
> race.
>
> Further, if the 4th run before that (referring to the good run) was also a
> good run then this also could be replicated in the upcoming race. Think
> 999*1*999*2*99 as the 10 run form figures. The choice (the selection or
> pick) was made from the 3rd last race, although a choice for the same
> runner
> arising in the 7th last race was seen as 'confidence'.
>
> (b) Co-incidentally, Turf Digests (TD) promoted a similar form pattern
> occurrence although their data was sourced in the late 40's. They wrote
> that
> runners with form figures less than or equal to 4th at 3 runs back and
> again
> at 7 runs back WOULD be replicated (or bettered) in the upcoming race. But,
> as always, the problem is the number of runners  it selects, often 5 or so.
> This plan requires you to identify the runners included in the run 7 back
> even though they don't appear in the run 3 back. An inclusion from the 7th
> series, and an inclusion from the 3rd series form the system runners
> although they may be different, this is the basis of why so many runners
> are
> selected, up to 5 or more. TD require you to rank all the runners so that
> the best performed become first picks, although they may have run 3 or 4th
> or worse on the day. Mostly it did not affect the selections (it couldn't I
> guess)
>
> FF results for last 10 races today
> Won 2.80,6.00,9.60,Loss,Loss,2.40,5.20,Loss,6.20,3.10. Two of those losses
> would be removed if you hunted for 3rd best results on the selection day
> and
> included them - there are 20 horses all up in these results, there would be
> 30 all up in the modified scheme (if you chose that course of action)
>
> TD results for last 10 races today
> WON 2.80 (3 selected),6.00 (4, 1st to 4th),Loss(4),Loss (4,2nd,3rd), Loss
> (3,0),Loss (5,2nd to 4th),Loss (3,2nd),Loss
> (4,2nd),6.50(4,trifecta),6.20(3,1st,3rd)
> To defend themselves the authors may say that the plan is not for operation
> on days other than Saturday, or something
>
> Another way - probably
>
> I'll have another read of the literature and see if I have it working as it
> should - I'll let you know.
>
> Cheers
>
> Tony
>
>
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