[AusRace] The Four Factor - a system

[Tony Moffat]

'FormFlash' scores (ratings) were sold in the 70's by Turf Monthly staff
and/or affiliates - I subscribed for a while, I got them cheaper with a
subscription to the magazine.

(a)The Four Factor (FF) was a happenstance that they promoted. It was often
seen that a good run three starts ago could be replicated in the upcoming
race.

Further, if the 4th run before that (referring to the good run) was also a
good run then this also could be replicated in the upcoming race. Think
999*1*999*2*99 as the 10 run form figures. The choice (the selection or
pick) was made from the 3rd last race, although a choice for the same runner
arising in the 7th last race was seen as 'confidence'.

(b) Co-incidentally, Turf Digests (TD) promoted a similar form pattern
occurrence although their data was sourced in the late 40's. They wrote that
runners with form figures less than or equal to 4th at 3 runs back and again
at 7 runs back WOULD be replicated (or bettered) in the upcoming race. But,
as always, the problem is the number of runners  it selects, often 5 or so.
This plan requires you to identify the runners included in the run 7 back
even though they don't appear in the run 3 back. An inclusion from the 7th
series, and an inclusion from the 3rd series form the system runners
although they may be different, this is the basis of why so many runners are
selected, up to 5 or more. TD require you to rank all the runners so that
the best performed become first picks, although they may have run 3 or 4th
or worse on the day. Mostly it did not affect the selections (it couldn't I
guess)

FF results for last 10 races today
Won 2.80,6.00,9.60,Loss,Loss,2.40,5.20,Loss,6.20,3.10. Two of those losses
would be removed if you hunted for 3rd best results on the selection day and
included them - there are 20 horses all up in these results, there would be
30 all up in the modified scheme (if you chose that course of action)

TD results for last 10 races today
WON 2.80 (3 selected),6.00 (4, 1st to 4th),Loss(4),Loss (4,2nd,3rd), Loss
(3,0),Loss (5,2nd to 4th),Loss (3,2nd),Loss
(4,2nd),6.50(4,trifecta),6.20(3,1st,3rd)
To defend themselves the authors may say that the plan is not for operation
on days other than Saturday, or something

Another way - probably

I'll have another read of the literature and see if I have it working as it
should - I'll let you know.

Cheers

Tony


-- 
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com