[AusRace] How somebody did something different to get a bet - a system

[Tony Moffat]

Moe Quad
R5 - 4,5,9,3
R6 - 8,6,9,1
R7 - 1,3,6,13
R8 - 2,3,8,12

For revue read review, one is all fun and navels, and the other is no fun at
all
$41 for 50% with 3 in each leg

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Wednesday, 4 August 2021 8:38 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] How somebody did something different to get a bet - a
system

To clarify, the decimals quoted are meant to represent the prize money
distribution (.55 for first, .17 for second, .08 for third and so on) which
is a generalisation of how the distribution occurs now - it may have been
(marginally) different back in the day when 'Roo was utilising them. They
say (I'm just repeating it) that prizemoney is an indication of
class/ability and better horses, and the thinking is that the better horses
will beat others and hopefully win, or place. Any revue shows this method
does choose winners and place getters regularly. It may be another route to
an end that can be achieved several ways, calculating a prize money winning
percentage, when the total prizemoney won is a similar indicator. Often the
chosen runners will be deep in the black, $20, $30 or more, and run above
their station (but not win/place). Still, the comfort is that the end result
is something you calculated, it's yours and nobody else does it that way.

Cheers

Tony


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Tuesday, 3 August 2021 11:11 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: [AusRace] How somebody did something different to get a bet - a
system

'Roo' Purcell was a sneak, not because he could, but because he had to be.

snipped
WHAT HE MAY HAVE DONE;

Average and price the winning percentages of jockeys, then compare that
price with those on offer, any prices less than the calculated
dividend/price may have enhanced his belief that today was the day, there
was confidence from the money outlayed. Fine, but he could get that, or a
similar statistic, from trainer results too. There had to be more, besides,
he was betting in hundreds on the rails and surely not just on that
information.

And, using the prizemoney distribution ratio, determine the total ratio won
off the last 4(?) Starts. Today the multiples are .55 (point 55),
.17,.08,.045,.03,.025 repeated until the whole sums to 1 (7th place out to
10th place. So a 1234 on prior runs would display as .045+.08+.17+.55 = .845
then use that as a multiplicand of the total prizemoney (say, 125000 * .845
= 105625) then rank(?) the results.

Another way - perhaps

A good bloke who was still on course weekly when I left to travel.




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