[AusRace] Strata System - by Roger Dedman
Tony Moffat
tonymoffat at bigpond.com
Sun May 24 01:28:14 AEST 2020
STRATA SYSTEM – a system devised by Roger Dedman
He says “the following system, sold in naïve good faith in the early 1960s
demonstrates a weak point of all systems based on past results.
Having noticed that many good priced winners, especially in better quality
races, came from near the bottom of the weights, I tried to find other
factors common to these winners.
Examining such factors as barrier, recent form I was able to reduce the
number of losers without markedly affecting the number of winners
Only plausible sounding clauses were included (in the selection process) –
the results could have been improved greatly by excluding horses with names
starting with A,F,G,H,N,O,R,T,V or W but that would be ridiculous as a
clause “
Or would it? I have system(s) where just this clause/factor is omnipresent,
excluding runners with names commencing with (la-la) or with letters in a
sequence, or if the letters backwards agree with you. Look, I didn’t say
they were good systems did I?
Roger Dedman was contacted by Tony Moffat by email and I requested
permission to quote the rules of this system. Doctor Dedman wrote “Yes I am
happy for you to quote those sections from my book” Roger Dedman is the
author of Commonsense Punting – A Mathematical Approach and the new version
of this Commonsense Punting Revisited.(CPR).
The system is in the earlier versions of the book. I have scanned the
relevant pages and can mail that to whoever asks.
Part A
(1) Operate only races where the prize money is $2500 or more (this was
then remember)
(2) Disregard wfa races, set weights races
(3) Consider only horses handicapped to carry bottom weight, equal bottom
weight. Take no notice of allowances (Apprenti or overweights) – only the
allocated bottom weight.
(4) Consider the three form figures for each horse. The total must sum to
less than 12 (12 or less in the results) Do not consider a horse with 0 in
its form figures. Do not consider a horse with fewer than 3 form
figures.(<=12)
(5) The horse must be drawn to start no further out than barrier 10 –
except in jumping races when the barrier is ignored.(<=10)
(6) If two or more qualify prefer the horse with the lower total of the
three form figures; if still equal choose the horse with the innermost
barrier. If there is a scratching reconsider the disregarded horses.
Part B(1)
(i) Applies to Open handicaps and trial handicaps of 1600
metres or longer (a mile he said), with 12 or more starters where the prize
money is less than $1600 (this was then, right)
(ii) Disregard races for 2yo, 3yo, 4yo, wfa, special weights,
set weights, jumpers, welters and high weights.
(iii) Disregard race if more than 5 horses handicapped on
bottom weight.
(iv) Consider only bottom weights or up to two pounds above the
bottom. Results are for bottom weight and up to 1.5 kilos.
(v) Ignore emergency runners (Em 1, Em2, etc) your considered
runner must be allocated the bottom weight (or up to 1.5 kgs more) and not
some horse in the race out of pity (or something including whatever)
(vi) The runner must start in barrier less than (and including)
10
(vii) The runner fulfilling these rules is your selection. The
selection will have less than 3 pounds (1.5 kilograms) less than the next
weight band. (54 kg v 55.5-56kg)
Part B(2)
(a) (Presumably) if you cannot get a selection within that weight band
rule at (vii) the form figures of a horse under consideration must include
one placing (3,2,1) and must not contain an 0. My Access data recognizes 0
as 9 (and 9 as 9 also)
(b) The total of the last two form figures must be:
14 or less if both runs were on a metro track
10 or less if one run was on a metro track
7 or less otherwise
Neither of the last two runs must have been over jumps
Note that in Part B(2) a horse may qualify if it has only two form figures,
but not if it has one form figure.
If more than one horse qualifies prefer the runner with the higher weight
with one exception; if there is only one horse on the bottom weight then it
is the selection. That’s not contradictory.
Still two or more contenders then prefer the runner with the most metro
runs; prefer the smaller total of the last two form figures (last two of
three runs); prefer the runner with the innermost barrier.
Some results Part A (bottom weight, 3 form figures sum to 12 or less,
barrier 10 or less)
Flemington R7 Lord Von Costa unp 12.70/3.50
Randwick R7 Switched 2nd 3.80/1.60
Newcastle R7 The Patrician Unp 20.60/4.90
Randwick R8 Man of Peace 1st 9.70/2.50
Flemington R8 Shot of Irish 2nd 2.80/1.40
Eagle Farm R9 Ella Devine 2nd 18.70/4.60
Murray Bridge R8 Oh Mo 2nd 8.60/2.70
Belmont R7 Lukes Gold 1st 21.80/4.70
Belmont R8 Pastry 3rd 5.90/2.40
Belmont R9 Bar Trader 2nd 38.40/9.10
The last couple of hours of racing today.
If there were more than 3 (so 4 or more) selections I moved on and away.
My data, previous form, comes as a block of 10 runs, simply X is not shown,
it’s not a race, it’s not important apparently but that causes a clash here.
(a) back in the day when this was first published a X3 would show as a form
figure 3 preceding a horses name, remember that? Today the data arrives as
9986654323 (say) so that the last three are 3,2,3, and that sums 8 which is
well within the parameters of the system – but it wasn’t the authors
intention for it to appear that way. I have summed the last three runs in
any event. The worst form figure is a 9, that really means the runner hasn’t
fired in that race and that figure 9 covers all the places greater than 9
also (a 14th is a 9) and being a 9 it doesn’t show the demon 0. Never mind,
a 9 is pretty woeful normally.
Some results for Part B (1600m+, 2 form figures sum to 14 or less, not
2,3,4yo, wfa, jumps, welters or highweights, 12 or more starters, race type
can be mixed age,sex)
Race 1 Flemington Nashville Sound 3rd 10.50/2.80
Race 1 Belmont Hip Wiggle 1st 4.30/1.70
Race 8 Flemington Shot of Irish 2nd 2.80/1.40
Race 5 Belmont Petticoat Junction Unp 6.20/2.10
Race 9 Belmont Bar Tradet 2nd 38.40/9.10
Cheers
Tony
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