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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>STRATA SYSTEM – a system devised by Roger Dedman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>He says “the following system, sold in naïve good faith in the early 1960s demonstrates a weak point of all systems based on past results.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Having noticed that many good priced winners, especially in better quality races, came from near the bottom of the weights, I tried to find other factors common to these winners. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Examining such factors as barrier, recent form I was able to reduce the number of losers without markedly affecting the number of winners<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Only plausible sounding clauses were included (in the selection process) – the results could have been improved greatly by excluding horses with names starting with A,F,G,H,N,O,R,T,V or W but that would be ridiculous as a clause “ <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Or would it? I have system(s) where just this clause/factor is omnipresent, excluding runners with names commencing with (la-la) or with letters in a sequence, or if the letters backwards agree with you. Look, I didn’t say they were good systems did I?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Roger Dedman was contacted by Tony Moffat by email and I requested permission to quote the rules of this system. Doctor Dedman wrote “Yes I am happy for you to quote those sections from my book” Roger Dedman is the author of Commonsense Punting – A Mathematical Approach and the new version of this Commonsense Punting Revisited.(CPR). <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>The system is in the earlier versions of the book. I have scanned the relevant pages and can mail that to whoever asks. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Part A<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(1)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>Operate only races where the prize money is $2500 or more (this was then remember)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(2)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>Disregard wfa races, set weights races<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(3)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>Consider only horses handicapped to carry bottom weight, equal bottom weight. Take no notice of allowances (Apprenti or overweights) – only the allocated bottom weight.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(4)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>Consider the three form figures for each horse. The total must sum to less than 12 (12 or less in the results) Do not consider a horse with 0 in its form figures. Do not consider a horse with fewer than 3 form figures.(<=12)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(5)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>The horse must be drawn to start no further out than barrier 10 – except in jumping races when the barrier is ignored.(<=10)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(6)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>If two or more qualify prefer the horse with the lower total of the three form figures; if still equal choose the horse with the innermost barrier. If there is a scratching reconsider the disregarded horses.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Part B(1)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst style='margin-left:54.0pt;mso-add-space:auto;text-indent:-36.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(i)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>Applies to Open handicaps and trial handicaps of 1600 metres or longer (a mile he said), with 12 or more starters where the prize money is less than $1600 (this was then, right)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:54.0pt;mso-add-space:auto;text-indent:-36.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(ii)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>Disregard races for 2yo, 3yo, 4yo, wfa, special weights, set weights, jumpers, welters and high weights.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:54.0pt;mso-add-space:auto;text-indent:-36.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(iii)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>Disregard race if more than 5 horses handicapped on bottom weight. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:54.0pt;mso-add-space:auto;text-indent:-36.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(iv)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>Consider only bottom weights or up to two pounds above the bottom. Results are for bottom weight and up to 1.5 kilos.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast style='margin-left:54.0pt;mso-add-space:auto;text-indent:-36.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(v)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>Ignore emergency runners (Em 1, Em2, etc) your considered runner must be allocated the bottom weight (or up to 1.5 kgs more) and not some horse in the race out of pity (or something including whatever)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:18.0pt'><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst style='margin-left:54.0pt;mso-add-space:auto;text-indent:-36.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(vi)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>The runner must start in barrier less than (and including) 10<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='margin-left:54.0pt;mso-add-space:auto;text-indent:-36.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(vii)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>The runner fulfilling these rules is your selection. The selection will have less than 3 pounds (1.5 kilograms) less than the next weight band. (54 kg v 55.5-56kg)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Part B(2)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(a)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>(Presumably) if you cannot get a selection within that weight band rule at (vii) the form figures of a horse under consideration must include one placing (3,2,1) and must not contain an 0. My Access data recognizes 0 as 9 (and 9 as 9 also)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3'><![if !supportLists]><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(b)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span lang=EN-US>The total of the last two form figures must be: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><span lang=EN-US>14 or less if both runs were on a metro track<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><span lang=EN-US>10 or less if one run was on a metro track<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><span lang=EN-US>7 or less otherwise<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><span lang=EN-US>Neither of the last two runs must have been over jumps<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle><span lang=EN-US>Note that in Part B(2) a horse may qualify if it has only two form figures, but not if it has one form figure.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraphCxSpLast><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>If more than one horse qualifies prefer the runner with the higher weight with one exception; if there is only one horse on the bottom weight then it is the selection. That’s not contradictory.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Still two or more contenders then prefer the runner with the most metro runs; prefer the smaller total of the last two form figures (last two of three runs); prefer the runner with the innermost barrier.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Some results Part A (bottom weight, 3 form figures sum to 12 or less, barrier 10 or less)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Flemington R7 Lord Von Costa unp 12.70/3.50<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Randwick R7 Switched 2<sup>nd</sup> 3.80/1.60<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Newcastle R7 The Patrician Unp 20.60/4.90<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Randwick R8 Man of Peace 1<sup>st</sup> 9.70/2.50<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Flemington R8 Shot of Irish 2<sup>nd</sup> 2.80/1.40<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Eagle Farm R9 Ella Devine 2<sup>nd</sup> 18.70/4.60<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Murray Bridge R8 Oh Mo 2<sup>nd</sup> 8.60/2.70<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Belmont R7 Lukes Gold 1<sup>st</sup> 21.80/4.70<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Belmont R8 Pastry 3<sup>rd</sup> 5.90/2.40<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Belmont R9 Bar Trader 2<sup>nd</sup> 38.40/9.10<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>The last couple of hours of racing today. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>If there were more than 3 (so 4 or more) selections I moved on and away.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US> My data, previous form, comes as a block of 10 runs, simply X is not shown, it’s not a race, it’s not important apparently but that causes a clash here. (a) back in the day when this was first published a X3 would show as a form figure 3 preceding a horses name, remember that? Today the data arrives as 9986654323 (say) so that the last three are 3,2,3, and that sums 8 which is well within the parameters of the system – but it wasn’t the authors intention for it to appear that way. I have summed the last three runs in any event. The worst form figure is a 9, that really means the runner hasn’t fired in that race and that figure 9 covers all the places greater than 9 also (a 14<sup>th</sup> is a 9) and being a 9 it doesn’t show the demon 0. Never mind, a 9 is pretty woeful normally.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Some results for Part B (1600m+, 2 form figures sum to 14 or less, not 2,3,4yo, wfa, jumps, welters or highweights, 12 or more starters, race type can be mixed age,sex)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Race 1 Flemington Nashville Sound 3<sup>rd</sup> 10.50/2.80<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Race 1 Belmont Hip Wiggle 1<sup>st</sup> 4.30/1.70<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Race 8 Flemington Shot of Irish 2<sup>nd</sup> 2.80/1.40<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Race 5 Belmont Petticoat Junction Unp 6.20/2.10<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Race 9 Belmont Bar Tradet 2<sup>nd</sup> 38.40/9.10 <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div id="DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br />
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<td style="width: 55px; padding-top: 13px;"><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><img src="https://ipmcdn.avast.com/images/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png" alt="" width="46" height="29" style="width: 46px; height: 29px;" /></a></td>
<td style="width: 470px; padding-top: 12px; color: #41424e; font-size: 13px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Virus-free. <a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank" style="color: #4453ea;">www.avg.com</a>
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