[AusRace] FW: Info wanted - please

Mon May 4 21:30:45 AEST 2020

Thanks Len

If possible can you advise the 4th, 5th and 6th  campaign figures

Very comprehensive, very useful also

Tony

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Monday, 4 May 2020 4:31 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Info wanted - please

I make it somewhat different.

I looked at 224,096 horses, and have 183,512 having a second campaign
(indicated by a break of 41 or more days between the end of first campaign
and the start of the second). 

Thus a "dropout" of 18%. Of course over such a long period of time training
methods and other factors may have changed. I took data between 1995 and
present, deleted all that had run before 1997 so that other than a 2 year
break, I picked up their first start, and deleted all that had run since
1/1/2018 so that I only had horses that finished racing (or were having a 2+
years spell).

For first campaign, I have:

Total Horses 224,096

   Runs           N

         1      73503

         2      56347

         3      38303

         4      23653

         5      13790

         6       7759

         7       4439

         8       2431

         9       1440

      10+      2431

Average 2.69, Median 2

for second campaign, I have:

Total Horses 183,512

         1      25658

         2      28257

         3      28721

         4      26180

         5      22164

         6      16687

         7      11770

         8       8061

         9       5404

  10+       10610

Average 4.41, Median 4

for third campaign I have:

Total Horses 141,644

         1      16517

         2      17971

         3      18518

         4      18526

         5      16427

         6      13800

         7      11232

         8       8339

         9       6061

  10+       14253

Average 5.12, Median 4

From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Monday, 4 May 2020 17:11 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Info wanted - please

Hi Rob - you are, totally (but that's ok)

I was wanting the number of runs in a horses 'campaign', on average.

What I got was on their first appearance they hung around for 4 runs on
average, then went for a spell.

After that spell, they returned for 7 runs, had a spell, then returned again
for 7 runs - I think you see the pattern now?

had a spell, then four runs, a spell, 6 runs etc. 

Y? I arksed. I was wondering if, say, 8 places off 16 runs may not be
stronger in merit than 4 off 8 or some other combination resulting in 50%
(say).

Rather than slice in groups of 5 runs, as in 5,10,15,20 to get a statistic
it is now possible to get an overview after 4 runs, then the 11th run, then
the 18th run, then the 22nd run, this being the sum/summation of 4+7+7+4.

Look it is not precise, not every runner has had 4,7,7,4 runs but a large
number have and what I have is close to what has occurred. That is why we
have odds, and thank you, and your mates, for those.

There is more on this, the runs in a 'campaign' question, in Roger Biggs
book 'A Handicapping Miscellany' page 73 and also his 'More Handicapping My
Way' page 39.

Cheers

Tony

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robbie
Waterhouse
Sent: Monday, 4 May 2020 1:22 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Info wanted - please

Are you saying "runners with 40+ starts resuming after 84+ days" run, on
average, 4th 1st up, 7th 2nd up etc?

Forgive if I'm misunderstanding totally.

Rob W

4-7-7-4-6-4-7 for runners with 40 starts (10000+ contenders out to their 5th
year at this game)

What is surprising, although it is often mentioned, is the 45% of runners
that are cut after their first 'campaign', perhaps never to race again.

It is interesting that the two persons who responded had similar figures.
They, the responders, both consider longer than 35 days  a 'spell' and after

42 days away the horse is re-set as a first upper.

The numbers quoted above are for 84+ days away from the track.

Cheers, and thank you

Tony

Subject: [AusRace] Info wanted - please

Is there a database gun who can tell me the average runs for each 'campaign'
for horses.

The runs at age is not important but the runs in their first, 2nd, 3rd and
subsequent campaigns is of interest to me.

Y?. I had been looking at places v runs and it seemed the tired win/place
record wasn't working (for me)

I was wondering if a stronger stat might be deduced from this info - the
least number of runs to accrue the most places off an average.

Thanks in advance

Cheers

Tony

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