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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Thanks Len<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>If possible can you advise the 4<sup>th</sup>, 5<sup>th</sup> and 6<sup>th</sup> campaign figures<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Very comprehensive, very useful also<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, 4 May 2020 4:31 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Info wanted - please<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>I make it somewhat different.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>I looked at 224,096 horses, and have 183,512 having a second campaign (indicated by a break of 41 or more days between the end of first campaign and the start of the second). <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Thus a "dropout" of 18%. Of course over such a long period of time training methods and other factors may have changed. I took data between 1995 and present, deleted all that had run before 1997 so that other than a 2 year break, I picked up their first start, and deleted all that had run since 1/1/2018 so that I only had horses that finished racing (or were having a 2+ years spell).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>For first campaign, I have:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Total Horses 224,096<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> Runs N<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 1 73503<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 2 56347<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 3 38303<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 4 23653<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 5 13790<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 6 7759<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 7 4439<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 8 2431<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 9 1440<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 10+ 2431<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Average 2.69, Median 2<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>for second campaign, I have:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Total Horses 183,512<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 1 25658<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 2 28257<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 3 28721<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 4 26180<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 5 22164<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 6 16687<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 7 11770<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 8 8061<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 9 5404<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 10+ 10610<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Average 4.41, Median 4<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>for third campaign I have:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Total Horses </span><span lang=EN-US style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>141,644</span><span style='color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 1 16517<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 2 17971<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 3 18518<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 4 18526<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 5 16427<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 6 13800<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 7 11232<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 8 8339<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 9 6061<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> 10+ 14253<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Average 5.12, Median 4<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> Racing <b>On Behalf Of </b>Tony Moffat<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, 4 May 2020 17:11 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Info wanted - please<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Hi Rob – you are, totally (but that’s ok)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I was wanting the number of runs in a horses ‘campaign’, on average.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>What I got was on their first appearance they hung around for 4 runs on average, then went for a spell.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>After that spell, they returned for 7 runs, had a spell, then returned again for 7 runs – I think you see the pattern now?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>had a spell, then four runs, a spell, 6 runs etc. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Y? I arksed. I was wondering if, say, 8 places off 16 runs may not be stronger in merit than 4 off 8 or some other combination resulting in 50% (say).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Rather than slice in groups of 5 runs, as in 5,10,15,20 to get a statistic it is now possible to get an overview after 4 runs, then the 11<sup>th</sup> run, then the 18<sup>th</sup> run, then the 22nd run, this being the sum/summation of 4+7+7+4.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Look it is not precise, not every runner has had 4,7,7,4 runs but a large number have and what I have is close to what has occurred. That is why we have odds, and thank you, and your mates, for those.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>There is more on this, the runs in a ‘campaign’ question, in Roger Biggs book ‘A Handicapping Miscellany’ page 73 and also his ‘More Handicapping My Way’ page 39.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Robbie Waterhouse<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, 4 May 2020 1:22 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Info wanted - please<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#7030A0'>Are you saying “runners with 40+ starts resuming after 84+ days” run, on average, 4<sup>th</sup> 1<sup>st</sup> up, 7<sup>th</sup> 2<sup>nd</sup> up etc?</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#7030A0'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#7030A0'>Forgive if I’m misunderstanding totally.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#7030A0'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#7030A0'>Rob W<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#7030A0'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>4-7-7-4-6-4-7 for runners with 40 starts (10000+ contenders out to their 5<sup>th</sup> year at this game)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>What is surprising, although it is often mentioned, is the 45% of runners that are cut after their first ‘campaign’, perhaps never to race again.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>It is interesting that the two persons who responded had similar figures. They, the responders, both consider longer than 35 days a ‘spell’ and after<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>42 days away the horse is re-set as a first upper.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>The numbers quoted above are for 84+ days away from the track.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Cheers, and thank you<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><br><b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] Info wanted - please<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Is there a database gun who can tell me the average runs for each ‘campaign’ for horses.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>The runs at age is not important but the runs in their first, 2<sup>nd</sup>, 3<sup>rd</sup> and subsequent campaigns is of interest to me.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Y?. I had been looking at places v runs and it seemed the tired win/place record wasn’t working (for me)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>I was wondering if a stronger stat might be deduced from this info – the least number of runs to accrue the most places off an average.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Thanks in advance<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div id=DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellspacing=3 cellpadding=0 style='border:none;border-top:solid #D3D4DE 1.0pt'><tr><td width=69 style='width:41.25pt;border:none;padding:9.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=46 height=29 id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://ipmcdn.avast.com/images/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png"></span></a><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=588 style='width:352.5pt;border:none;padding:9.0pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:13.5pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#41424E;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Virus-free. </span><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#4453EA;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>www.avg.com</span></a><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#41424E;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>