[AusRace] Info wanted - please

[Tony Moffat]

Hi Rob - you are, totally (but that's ok)
I was wanting the number of runs in a horses 'campaign', on average.
What I got was on their first appearance they hung around for 4 runs on
average, then went for a spell.
After that spell, they returned for 7 runs, had a spell, then returned again
for 7 runs - I think you see the pattern now?
had a spell, then four runs, a spell, 6 runs etc. 
 
Y? I arksed. I was wondering if, say, 8 places off 16 runs may not be
stronger in merit than 4 off 8 or some other combination resulting in 50%
(say).
Rather than slice in groups of 5 runs, as in 5,10,15,20 to get a statistic
it is now possible to get an overview after 4 runs, then the 11th run, then
the 18th run, then the 22nd run, this being the sum/summation of 4+7+7+4.
 
Look it is not precise, not every runner has had 4,7,7,4 runs but a large
number have and what I have is close to what has occurred. That is why we
have odds, and thank you, and your mates, for those.
 
There is more on this, the runs in a 'campaign' question, in Roger Biggs
book 'A Handicapping Miscellany' page 73 and also his 'More Handicapping My
Way' page 39.
 
 
Cheers
 
Tony
 
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robbie
Waterhouse
Sent: Monday, 4 May 2020 1:22 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Info wanted - please
 
Are you saying "runners with 40+ starts resuming after 84+ days" run, on
average, 4th 1st up, 7th 2nd up etc?
 
Forgive if I'm misunderstanding totally.
 
Rob W
 
4-7-7-4-6-4-7 for runners with 40 starts (10000+ contenders out to their 5th
year at this game)
What is surprising, although it is often mentioned, is the 45% of runners
that are cut after their first 'campaign', perhaps never to race again.
It is interesting that the two persons who responded had similar figures.
They, the responders, both consider longer than 35 days  a 'spell' and after
42 days away the horse is re-set as a first upper.
The numbers quoted above are for 84+ days away from the track.
 
Cheers, and thank you
 
Tony
 

Subject: [AusRace] Info wanted - please
 
Is there a database gun who can tell me the average runs for each 'campaign'
for horses.
The runs at age is not important but the runs in their first, 2nd, 3rd and
subsequent campaigns is of interest to me.
 
Y?. I had been looking at places v runs and it seemed the tired win/place
record wasn't working (for me)
 
I was wondering if a stronger stat might be deduced from this info - the
least number of runs to accrue the most places off an average.
 
Thanks in advance
 
Cheers
 
Tony
 
 
 

 
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