[AusRace] Dettori Day - from the book Taking Chances - used with permission

[Tony Moffat]

"Reproduced with permission of the Licensor through PLSclear."
The author has been contacted and given his permission to quote from his
book also

>From the book Taking Chances - Dr John Haigh - Oxford University Press

Further information here:
https://www.booktopia.com.au/taking-chances-john-haigh/prod9780198526636.htm
l

Taking Chances - Winning with Probability



On Saturday September 28 1996 Frank Dettori rode the seven winners on the
card at Ascot UK.

The English bookmaking fraternity reported they lost £40 million on the
day,it may have been more,and it seemed to be an unmitigated disaster,
according to the papers, although this was later reported as being 'the best
thing ever for racing' by the fielders themselves, punters got paid, well
paid, the media reported racing positively and there was renewed interest by
the public in caning the bookies. 

The press said 'the fifth win was expensvie, the 6th dismal, and by the 7th
it was time to turn out the lights' However if the accounting machinations
are looked at you can see the industry working to control and reduce their
losses.

Dettori's feat was so costly for the industry through a combination of
factors. One was the English tradition of accumulators, bets made early on a
multi choice of factors, but in this case on Frankie riding the card,
impossible, but they offered in excess of £250 k for odds, and they wrote
tickets on it early, in addition to singles and multiples involving Dettori
during the day. This was no up country hacking meeting either, there were
some top ho races including the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and a seasonal
championship could be decided, depending on trainers outputs, and then there
was TV - BBC covered the first 3 races, which included the Stakes, and as
the day progressed TV continued broadcasting, they cancelled or re-arranged
their programs as the afternoon progressed and the jockey became invincible,
it seems.
© Oxford University Press
A professional odds maker would likely see Dettori finishing well in at two
races, perhaps three all day, this day, apart from almost every other day he
rides. Knowing he rides like his mortgage depends on winning, they said, and
he attracts bets as a result, his mounts may be overbet often. Only one of
his rides was near favourite pre race and three of them were written as long
shots, 10/1 or more. Odds like that will attract early money and the off
course punter, of course, can bet at this scale or SP if joining later. On
this day, then, SP was determined from a selection of up to 100 bookmaking
companies working the races, and a chosen 6 or so on course. By far the
biggest market is off course at the hundreds or more shops in the streets of
suburbs and towns and this is money not transferred but controlled by the
actions of money on course, £50,000 on course opposed to several hundred
thousand off course.

As will be seen it was the off course shops who used their on course
contacts to finance and drive the on course sp down to lessen, but not
remove, the risk.The initial odds reflect their constructors judgement, or
more likely the assessment of what price would induce a bet. Obviously, big
bets on a runner will cause the odds to change, shorten, to protect the
money, and other odds on other runners may, may, lengthen to attract bets
for them. In their system, in a 20 horse race the shop may have a liability
of note on two runners, and a profit from 16 or more, with a break even
proposition on some also. It will happen that the shop will win if the
favouritie does.

Race 1: Wall Street started out at 5/2, 3/1 and started 2/1 favourite. No
surprises there
Race 2: Diffident was not favoured and won at 12/1 after being shopped at
10/1 for hours.
Race 3: was the main event at 3.20pm QEII Stakes, 7 starters and Corals had
Bosra Sham as favourite but Dettori mount Mark of Esteem, assisted by
accumulators was 10/3 second favourite. Bookies margin was about 12%. Direct
money alone would have allowed a profit on winning but the flow on of money
from previous races deleted that.

Alarm bells started to ring in betting shops everywhere, everything was
televised, and Dettori was a crowd favourite anyway

Race 4: Decorated Hero had been 14/1 and was now 8/1 and firming in a 26
runner field and romped in at 7/1 and the contingent liabilities
skyrocketed. It was Dettori Day alright, and there were more races.

The strategy was to bet heavily on course to drive down, and control, the sp
of future mounts in upcoming races. Timing was important as early big bets
would be laid off and the runner price might drift again. Big bets in the
closing minutes was the technique and the shops had reps on course for that,
cash or credit it seemed.
© Oxford University Press

Race 5: Fatefully attracted huge bets as the start time approached (10/3
into 7/4) and can be seen as a succesful plunge, not only because they
collected the winnings, but each £12 bet meant a loss of only £21 and not
£40, the accumulators were a problem but management, then control, was being
applied. That betting scenario can be explained by showing that 12 pound at
7/4 returns 33 pound, less your stake of 12 pound and your lay loss is 21.
10/3 (which we don't have) is 3.33 in our money. Returns 40 (alright 39.96
but they will pay you 40 folding)

Race 6: Lochangel won at 5/4. The BBC changed their programming to show this
race, a five horse affair, and the next race. The previous strategy was
repeated, and it seems more than £80k from each of several firms was
invested on course, to drive down the sp. Corals had outgoings of £600 k and
by betting back they reduced their liability by £225k and also won over
£100k. Nobody ever perhaps has spent so heavily hoping for the thing to run
last!

Race 7: A year earlier Dettori had won this same race, on the same horse,
Fujiyama Crest. It was now top weight, had performed dismally up to this
point in the season, 5 runs and nothing closer than 3rd, unplaced in the
last 2, 18 runners, and had opened earlier at 12/1, then 7/1 during Race 4,
then 4/1 after race 5, and now 6/4 at times.

 On course bookmakers have minimal running-on liabilities from previous
events and their prices should be or should reflect their own opinion of the
runners chances and that opinion altered or modified by bets. Thousands of
pounds were bet at 7/4 and yet oncourse bookies increased its price 2/1,
seeking more money. It was impossible to ride the winners of 7 races,
surely, so their belief was justified because of this.

Dettori said to the trainer 'if this one gets beat it's your fault, 'cos I'm
in form' 

Never mind, Fujiyama Crest ran into the lead and won at 2/1 sp 

In the back offices there were no celebrations. They had their winnings to
collect and a business to run and racing continued into the evening and
night. The best collect may have been a fixed odds accumulator written that
morning that returned £235k, others returned £25k at sp. Dettori was on the
favourite in the last three races.

© Oxford University Press

The bookies business continued. Next day Frankie had to wait until the last
race for his first victory, and his mounts in each race were very well
supported but lost. The recoup had begun it seems.


Ignoring the complications of multiple bets, and looking at direct money on
each race, wins by 75 of 93 horses racing on Dettori Day would have meant
profit for the books, the remaining 18 favoured the punters.
© Oxford University Press

The text is taken from the book 'Taking Chances - Winning with Probability'
by Dr John Haigh and is used with permission - 
© Oxford Publishing Limited (Academic) has granted a licence for your
request to use content from Taking Chances Winning with Probability
[9780198526636]
© Oxford University Press (Licensor) - Anthony G Moffat is the licensee
© The author, Doctor John Haigh was contacted by Tony Moffat at University
of Sussex and he gave permission for the following to be used. 
Thank you Dr Haigh
Thank you OUP 
The endeavours of Publishers' Licensing Services (PLSClear) are acknowledged
with gratitude -thank you Ben
The copyright symbol appears on each page.
Northerly, the G does not stand for Gaylord.

Dr Haigh has written a succession of books. Another of his, 'Beating the
Odds' with Rob Eastaway is good also and better because it describes a
strategy in darts, 501, and directs/implauds you to leave triple 20 alone
and go for the much more attainable 19, 16 or 14. I am not a darter, may be,
or a dart player but I was first told about this scoring strategy, and
ignoring the 20 segment, from a Jesuit priest, between his Rothmans and
driving back from Mass in a country village, all those years ago, in his
Valiant, me as an altar boy too.

Cheers

Tony




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