[AusRace] The Favourite Plan

[Tony Moffat]

The Favourite Plan
Often systems are centred around finding winners out beyond 4/1. At least at
4's ($5.00) it seems possible that a recovery will occur from the inevitable
draw down that happens. 
This one is old, and gets regurgitated each decade it seems, with a not so
subtle twist sometimes. The rules have variously required your selection to
(a) have won last start, and be fav today, or (b)  a favourite inside 2/1
and not a winner, (c) to be favourite pre-post and on course, (d)to be
favourite on course and not so pre-race. There are others, see (e) and (f)
below, and who knows, there may be versions incorporating weight carried, or
barriers. Barrier rules, restrictions, are so scientific in systems,
although no research is given, just outside some mystical barrier number is
quick sand or something
The thinking beyond the selection was (a) to be or seem genuine when
favourite, with the form and now the money support. (B) seems to now require
the weight of money to be favourite, although others in the race may have
better form characteristics. (C) just convinces itself it is the favourite,
no matter what and (D) is another way of being (B) maybe. (E) is a version
using the separation of prices, a short, perhaps red hot favourite and the
remainder beyond 4/1 - this is one system, perhaps the only one, I have seen
that relates solely to harness racing and (F) is applicable only to stable
double entries, when one runner is the favourite and the other is not so
popular. It happens, although occasionally lately Waller runners have caused
a bottle neck, with five or so running and, no, I don't know the work around
for that. Another had a race runner number exclusion, only less than or
equal to 13 runners.
These rules (1 & 2, below) are now applied to every day racing whereas
initially they were part of the selection rules for a system that operated
on 16 races only, in Melbourne and while I don't have results for that my
testing of it shows it was quite good, promising covers it.
I quote the rules for the second version of the system that I have, the only
one with a booklet accompanying the first page rules, then 3 pages of
results, and an advertisement for an overcoat and a hair product so that the
user will be well warm and his hair cemented in place, interestingly the
coat model is wearing a hat, and is being held by a leggy model in a flimsy
summer frock, all very 60's, and it seems to be at the sand track at
Brisbane, Albion Park. Buyers of the coat are eligible for 10 pounds off the
price of binoculars, see the stockist for details.
This version has the requirement that a second selection be supported also.
Read on.
Rule 1: The selection is the runner, with form, that is priced at LESS than
or EQUAL 2/1 ($3.00) at race time. 
Rule 2: If a selection is made under Rule 1, a second selection is made from
the runner which is 3rd in the betting, at that time (meaning race time)
My copy of this system was donated by 'Bron', or rather her father. 'Bron'
worked at the blue window in the tote building, at Flemington, on Saturdays
and public holidays. Her window was the $10 minimum although they accepted
all bets, $10 and above, and her window was opposite the Rails. She kept
serving throughout the bet up period, whereas the yellow window, minimum bet
$100, was shut, closed over, and you had to knock and it opened immediately,
one win bet transaction per customer, slam, watch your fingers. 'Bron' was
privy to the behind the scenes goings on with the on course tote there.
There was a dial indicator near her bench which showed the payout price, it
was called that, or the dividend, of each runner, updated continually, in
real time. This was the on course $1 tote, and these figures were melded
with holdings off course and it seemed they didn't change much, those payout
prices, firming more often. 
The after race telex was made up here, this telex was sent to newspapers
advising them the race by race results, the horse details of all the
runners, and the tote price, both in dollars and cents, and as a bookmaker
price equivalent. There was a lot of information in that telex, none, or not
a lot of it used by the papers, the "Sun" was an exception. The telex showed
the date, name of course, race number, name of race, prize money out to
fourth, distance, sp for bookie prices for all runners (and a tote
equivalent), breeding of the winner, barrier positions, not adjusted for
scratchings, except place getters, finishing margins, weights, without
deductions or overs, Judges (and TAB) numbers, jockeys, fluctuations of 10
or so in the market, and a favourite marker, an * against the horses name.
There would be a few SP who would like that telex I'm guessing.
Some of the results - they are not sequential nor complete, not dated, but
show the workings of the system. 
Caulfield R2 (1)Subarmas unp 7-4,9-5(2.75,2.80). (1) refers to favourite,
7-4 is bookie price, 9-5 is tote equivalent 9/5,+1 = 2.8..(2) Fujiyama 6-1
3rd.
Caulfield R4 (1)Jeffrey 1st - 8-11,4-5(1.80,1.80)..(2)Yawander 13-2,3rd
Sandown R2(1)Salvo 1st - 11-8,1-1(2.37,2.00)..(2)Wakiti Creek 7-2, 3rd
Sandown R3 (1) Fulminia 1st - 5-4,7-5(2.25,2.40)..(2)Attainment 10-1,2nd
Sandown R5 (1)Mt Venn 1st - 9-10,3-5(1.90,1.60)..(2)fell
Sandown R6 (1)Idolou 3rd - 6-4,2-1(2-50,3.00)..(2) Zambari 11-4,1st ..there
was 6-4,5-2,11-4 in this race
Sandown R7 (1) Grand Cidium 1st - 4-9,1-2 (1.44,1.50)..(2) Unplaced
The above was in 1973 - there are lines and lines of it.
Melbourne Cup Day '72 -I was there
R2 - Fav 2-1 unplaced, (2) Rickshaws Luck (3rd Fav rule) 1st 9-1, (4.90)
R3 - (1)Miss Ireland 1st - 11-8,(2.40), (2) Tricia Ann 2nd 13-4,(?)
R4- (1)m\Maria Scotia 1st - 2-1,(2.80), (2) Redgage Gardens 2nd 7-1(?)
R6- (1) Yawander 3rd - 7-4, (2) My Sabre 2nd - 7-2
Saturday
R1- Bon Cherie 1st -6-4 (2) Unp
R2- Yawander 1st -1-1 (2)My Sabre 2nd -8-1
R3 All Shot 1st - 1-2 (2) Unp
R5 Asgard 3rd- 6-6 (2) Ridgeway 2nd -9-2
R6 Gunsynd Unp -1-1 (2) Stormy Seas 1st 6-1
Ladies Day Thursday
R1 - (1)Fail (2)Fail
R2 Sincere Pride 1st - 11-8 (2) Fell
R3 All Shot 1st - 4-7, (2) Tauto 2nd 15-1
There were 568 races this season 72-73 and the favourite won 170 and placed
355 times (1-2-3)
Third favourite won 78 and placed 223 times in 568 races. There is an
incorrect calculation of
the odds required, win/place, to break even. The <=2/1 winner is shown as
67%.
There are several pages of results in the booklet, winning and not.

This period, to me, is the golden age of systems, and certainly there is a
lot of literature available from around this time, systems, methods, ideas,
etc.
'Bron' often backed her favourite off the tote payout indicator, this would
generally be shorter than the odds in the ring, the Rails board was within
view of her place of work. 

Cheers

Tony






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