[AusRace] Lords Prayer - a calculation in racing.

[Tony Moffat]

Mr Lord was a horse breeder, a farmer in the Western District, a football
club stalwart it seemed and would rather go to VFL than the races any day,
son, he told me.

He was big on horses racing 'over the sticks' and horses he bred, and sold
on, may have had success at it.
 Hurdle/Steeple racing in Metro Melbourne was big in time gone by, as you
know.

On a wet Saturday, a particularly wintry day only worsened, or bettered, by
wintry days in Tasmania, he sat and spoke about racing. 

Our place was beside the stand, and that stand had a café, with tea pot tea,
and then you could smoke everywhere but
we sat under cover and out of the wind, him with his Romeo and Juliet cigars
and me with my Rothmans, each with a mug
and me with apples and cream. 

Mr Lord said that steeple chasers can be compared indirectly by factoring
their finish in a similar distance because the
running, and jumping, was so severe any 'secrets' any runner had used to
prove superior to its opposition were known.

He maintained that distance, weight, then the steeples, evened things out,
not that it brought runners together it at least showed their capabilities
 with what they had on the day, referring to weight, finish. He used a
multiple 16.5, which was a number composed of many smaller corrections
multiplied together, although he did not reveal everything in the
composition of that number it is a factor in time representation in racing,
even today*.

He multiplied the beaten distance in the qualifying race by 16.5, then
divided that by the furlong distance of the race, 3200 metres = 16 furlongs
Then, in these modern times, multiplied that figure by .45 (point 45) to get
a kilogram rating for this runner.

 This value represents the weight relief the horse needs to improve next
start, distance being the same or similar. 

Mr Lord had a calculator with him on course for the avowed purpose of
multiplying and dividing, then writing the results of
each sum in his race book. 

I dubbed it Lords Prayer and he laughed, spluttered, then coughed, took a
sip and a draw, another sip,  and asked me my opinion, which I gave. It won.

Today 21/07/2019 it is Moss Trooper Steeple day in country Victoria, so the
legend lives on, great.

On the same day, but in the early 70's there was nobody on course, nobody
else I mean, and our ring beside the stand was a wet desert, devoid of life,
for the 28 minutes between settling and setting the board for the next.

 My Boss was generally first, and this bought a few in, some in long coats,
everybody in a coat of varying dimension lengthwise, some in hats, some in
beanies,
all ages and sizes, strolling along the betting boulevard, most writing,
glancing back and forth from their notes to the boards. 

There was the testing banter first, as in 'you're a bit skinny with that one
of Bourkes' which is a punter unique way of asking after a horse.
 Stewart spoke from the back left, the pencilling desk, 'which one' which
surprised the questioner, but humour took over with Stewart stating 'no he
is not riding two, the other one is in the race also'

K and S Bourke were on joint favourites at 6's this day. There were 20
nominees and 16 running.

 The Boss said, what is a fair price, and how much are you buying. The deal
was done, that is how he did his business then. There is often value out in
the 'suburbs', the secondary rings we will call them, although we were the
next rung down from the Rails, and often the Rails runner would come up to
us, our group, looking to lay off some field money, to cover contingences,
to buy some peace of mind like, he said. Then he would swear and say 'it is
so quiet  they are only backing 4 or 5 at most' whereas we may have started
slowly as I said, but the money was spread over 10 minimum, with smaller
bets on most of the rest, and it was still possible to make a book from
that. 

Stewart had his opinion, as did The Boss, and they differed, with the Boss
on side with the early favourite (not a Bourke horse, K or S) and Stu liked
another one, a tiny jumper which had won 5 for him, including the last two.

The Boss maintains that if you multiply the number of men on course by 150
you get a figure approaching available money. This day there may have been
120K available over 8 races, and that would turnover several times,
dependent on favourites, and there were perhaps 50 outfits vying for
business.

SUMMARY:

(i) Multiply the losing margin by 16.5, then divide the product by the
number of furlongs covered (essentially race distance divided by 2 - 200
metres in a furlong) - the result is a value you use to compare all runners
required in the race. It may be a weight correction, so that a figure of 2.7
represents 2.7 kgs required off the horse in the next run for it to improve.
A horse running 5 or more lengths out will get a weight change like that,
next, race, all other things being equal. No, it is not precise but it is
another way.

(ii) (*)16.5 is the figure in form assessement representing 6 * 2.75,
perhaps the distance covered in a second over the distance of the race. 1200
metres / 16.5 gives a value of 72.72, a middle placed time for a good track
run over 1200 m. There are values that increase and decrease as the distance
increases, or decreases eg a Gold Coast scamper over 850 will be over valued
at 16.5 - it may be closer to 19, also a 2400 metre Cup might be 15, or
something less than 16.5. The decimal side of it  is quite powerful, those
decimal points mean something - again, imprecise and another way.

(iii) Multiply the losing distance, in lengths by 2.75 and take away the
race distance, and the resulting figure is the distance this horse ran while
the winner crossed the line - 2.75*3.5 minus 1200 =1190.375, the metres your
runner completed in the race time of the winner. Now divide that distance by
the race time to get the metres per second of your runner. Do with this what
you will, it is directly comparable to other runs, and other runners so
that's a start.

Mr Lords equation has been repeated several times in other texts, I mean the
machinations of it, losing value times some other value divided by the
furlongs. He maintains that jumping races are good races for second string
horses, he had success he said, as I wrote, but he also reckoned that good
off spring of Better Boy, or Alcimedes, or any number of top flight sires
were likely winners in jumps races. He said he was thankful his were sired
by unpopular unknowns and performed as they did, often enough.

Cheers

Tony


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