[AusRace] The Bounce - a system

Tony Moffat tonymoffat at bigpond.com
Sun Jul 14 00:20:33 AEST 2019


One of mine for once

SELECTION RULES :-
(i) research a runners 3rd last run - if it placed 4th or better (meaning
3,2,1st) then failed at its next two starts - record its TAB number
(ii) research a runners 4th last run - if it placed 4th or better then
failed at its next two starts- record its TAB number
(iii)research a runners 5th last run - if it placed 4th or better then
failed at its next two starts - record its TAB number

4th or better means 4th or 3,2,1st.
View form entirely, ignore spells, DNF, F, LR, just look at the last 5 runs
of the horse and decide from that.
(a)Each and every runner must have had 5 starts at least, you assess your
selection off the last 5 starts - it's a system.
(b)If your query turns up more than 4 qualifiers, move on to the next race.
Ok, I haven't researched that but picking 5, or 7 or more seems
desperate somewhat, needy almost.
(c) 8 starters, at least, each race.
(d) no distance rule, but distance and numbers seems to work

It takes 3 minutes a race, tops, when done manually - I do it through a
download and it seems as quick as the speed of light, or better.



11/07/2019 results - selections should have 5 starts minimum
Kembla R5 had one qualifier Eleven Eleven which won (4.70) most of
the others did not have the 5 required runs.
Sale R5  - 3,6,8 - 1st 8 13.50 -stupid rule eliminated this race too
Grafton R6 - 10,11,12,14 - 1st 14 16.90
Grafton R7 - 9,10,11,12 - 1st 9 14.20
Dalby R7 - 4,5,7,10 -  2nd 7 23.40
Kembla R8- 1,9 - 1 1st 20.10 stupid rule eliminated this race also
Pinjarra  R5 - 1,4,9 - 4 2nd, 9 1st 18.50/27.10 stupid rule again
Grafton R8 -11,12,13 - 11 1st, 12 3rd 13.70/7.10
Pinjarra R6 - 3,4,8 - 3 1st, 4 2nd 5.10/25.30 stupid rule again
Pinjarra R9  - 2nd and 3rd picked but they were in a group of 6,
so the race was eliminated from play.

Summary: win 16.90,14.20,13.70. 

A system seller,author, composer, would tell you at this point that
we got 75% winners in eligible races

12/07/2019

Scone R5 fail
Ipswich R4 fail
Ipswich R5 fail
Geelong R6 fail
Ipswich R6 fail
Goulburn R8 - fail
Geelong R8 - fail
Carnarvon R5 - 1,4, - 3rd and 1st 5.10/3.60
Ipswich R7 - fail
Carnarvon R6, 1st and 3rd but again -too many selected(5)
Carnarvon R7 - 2,3,4,7 - 1st,2nd,3rd -12.70,7.00,3.70

13/07/2018

Doomben R1 fail
Caulfield R2 fail
Rosehill R2 fail
Caulfield R3 fail
Rosehill R3 fail
Gawler R2 -2 1st 4.70
Doomben 4 fail
Doomben R5 fail
Mackay R4 1st 2.70
Rosehill R6 fail
Doomben R6
Wyong R6 fail
Gawler R5 1st 11.90
MacKay R6 fail
Doomben R7 fail
Caulfield R8 fail
Wyong R7 1st 12.70
Gawler R6 1st 2.70
Rosehill R8 2nd and 3rd but fail
Caulfield R9 1st 11.30 and 3rd
Gawler R7 fail
Rosehill R9 fail

The Bounce? - it uses a theory espoused by Len Ragozin (google it) that
runners after an especially brutal effort 
may not repeat that for a few runs. I have used a placing of <4th as the
base, then sought two runs of >4 as the
basis for selection. Also it is the Ladies Championship  final at Wimbledon
and subliminally I may be getting a message, or somethink.

It failed, this system but the results don't show all the places, were there
is a dividend, and time and again the sub rules eliminated
winners, all runners must have a minimum of 5 runs, there must be 8 runners
at least. 

If anybody wants it, it is yours

Cheers

Tony








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