[AusRace] Jockeys generally

Wed Jan 23 09:44:52 AEDT 2019

Hi Lindsay

The A2E might be better on the corrected market odds versus actual winners
and then ROI.

I stand to be corrected lol, but I have used "corrected market odds" ie.
the overround has been removed.

Cheers Sean

On Wed, Jan 23, 2019 at 2:03 AM Race Stats <RaceStats at hotmail.com> wrote:

> Hi Sean,
>
> Very interesting stuff and a lot of work there!
>
> I’m interested and may well rate the jockeys, then the trainers, then
> jockey trainer combo’s to see a clearer picture of what’s what.
>
> The A2E might be better on the corrected market odds versus actual winners
> and then ROI.
>
> Just a suggestion.
>
> Lindsay
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *sean
> mclaren
> *Sent:* Tuesday, 22 January 2019 5:48 PM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally
>
>
>
> JockeyA2ETable
> Ascot
>
> Rider
>
> Distance
>
> A
>
> E
>
> NoOfRides
>
> A2E
>
> DAMIAN LANE
>
> 1000
>
> 4
>
> 4.81
>
> 166
>
> 0.83
>
> DAMIAN LANE
>
> 1200
>
> 8
>
> 23.88
>
> 218
>
> 0.34
>
> DAMIAN LANE
>
> 1400
>
> 2
>
> 7.31
>
> 193
>
> 0.27
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1000
>
> 5
>
> 22.00
>
> 193
>
> 0.23
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1100
>
> 4
>
> 8.20
>
> 84
>
> 0.49
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1200
>
> 16
>
> 25.94
>
> 316
>
> 0.62
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1400
>
> 22
>
> 28.44
>
> 452
>
> 0.77
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1500
>
> 3
>
> 5.33
>
> 55
>
> 0.56
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1600
>
> 14
>
> 14.58
>
> 260
>
> 0.96
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1800
>
> 11
>
> 10.97
>
> 96
>
> 1.00
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 2200
>
> 3
>
> 7.26
>
> 67
>
> 0.41
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1000
>
> 20
>
> 12.41
>
> 164
>
> 1.61
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1200
>
> 13
>
> 10.34
>
> 88
>
> 1.26
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1400
>
> 6
>
> 7.25
>
> 73
>
> 0.83
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1600
>
> 11
>
> 6.43
>
> 176
>
> 1.71
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1000
>
> 4
>
> 6.23
>
> 54
>
> 0.64
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1100
>
> 5
>
> 11.21
>
> 167
>
> 0.45
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1200
>
> 10
>
> 10.86
>
> 123
>
> 0.92
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1400
>
> 16
>
> 11.39
>
> 146
>
> 1.40
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1600
>
> 20
>
> 25.01
>
> 232
>
> 0.80
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1800
>
> 5
>
> 9.15
>
> 72
>
> 0.55
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 2150
>
> 1
>
> 5.39
>
> 130
>
> 0.19
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 2200
>
> 9
>
> 6.90
>
> 54
>
> 1.30
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1000
>
> 27
>
> 69.28
>
> 474
>
> 0.39
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1100
>
> 26
>
> 38.30
>
> 313
>
> 0.68
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1200
>
> 44
>
> 42.47
>
> 376
>
> 1.04
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1400
>
> 32
>
> 31.49
>
> 312
>
> 1.02
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1500
>
> 10
>
> 7.87
>
> 87
>
> 1.27
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1600
>
> 14
>
> 43.37
>
> 295
>
> 0.32
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1800
>
> 11
>
> 9.31
>
> 109
>
> 1.18
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 2200
>
> 10
>
> 6.70
>
> 70
>
> 1.49
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1000
>
> 45
>
> 57.42
>
> 408
>
> 0.78
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1100
>
> 46
>
> 86.10
>
> 630
>
> 0.53
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1200
>
> 115
>
> 105.53
>
> 695
>
> 1.09
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1400
>
> 104
>
> 101.94
>
> 623
>
> 1.02
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1500
>
> 30
>
> 31.23
>
> 164
>
> 0.96
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1600
>
> 85
>
> 77.78
>
> 541
>
> 1.09
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1800
>
> 38
>
> 39.50
>
> 196
>
> 0.96
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 2100
>
> 16
>
> 10.36
>
> 50
>
> 1.54
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 2150
>
> 2
>
> 6.87
>
> 138
>
> 0.29
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 2200
>
> 40
>
> 50.25
>
> 277
>
> 0.80
>
>
>
> Heres another extract of the SAME jocks in WA. The right hand column is
> the ROI for a $1.
>
> No caveat, these rides include ALL in the market.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, 22 Jan 2019 15:38 sean mclaren <seanmac4321 at gmail.com wrote:
>
> JockeyA2ETable
> AscotTrack
>
> Rider
>
> Distance
>
> Actual
>
> Expected
>
> Rides
>
> A2E
>
> DAMIAN LANE
>
> 1200
>
> 7
>
> 22.25
>
> 178
>
> 0.31
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1000
>
> 3
>
> 20.40
>
> 157
>
> 0.15
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1200
>
> 12
>
> 20.40
>
> 206
>
> 0.59
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1400
>
> 19
>
> 19.39
>
> 222
>
> 0.98
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1600
>
> 11
>
> 7.68
>
> 59
>
> 1.43
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1800
>
> 9
>
> 8.61
>
> 48
>
> 1.05
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1000
>
> 19
>
> 11.83
>
> 150
>
> 1.61
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1200
>
> 10
>
> 8.98
>
> 53
>
> 1.11
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1200
>
> 9
>
> 8.12
>
> 56
>
> 1.11
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1400
>
> 15
>
> 7.37
>
> 59
>
> 2.04
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1600
>
> 18
>
> 22.28
>
> 184
>
> 0.81
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1800
>
> 4
>
> 7.88
>
> 45
>
> 0.51
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1000
>
> 26
>
> 64.45
>
> 381
>
> 0.40
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1100
>
> 26
>
> 35.25
>
> 253
>
> 0.74
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1200
>
> 36
>
> 34.01
>
> 207
>
> 1.06
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1400
>
> 27
>
> 24.39
>
> 159
>
> 1.11
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1600
>
> 11
>
> 40.31
>
> 214
>
> 0.27
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1800
>
> 9
>
> 7.44
>
> 60
>
> 1.21
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1000
>
> 37
>
> 48.42
>
> 332
>
> 0.76
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1100
>
> 41
>
> 80.55
>
> 571
>
> 0.51
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1200
>
> 96
>
> 86.60
>
> 434
>
> 1.11
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1400
>
> 89
>
> 86.57
>
> 487
>
> 1.03
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1500
>
> 26
>
> 26.37
>
> 127
>
> 0.99
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1600
>
> 79
>
> 70.15
>
> 474
>
> 1.13
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1800
>
> 33
>
> 35.14
>
> 159
>
> 0.94
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 2200
>
> 38
>
> 45.77
>
> 246
>
> 0.83
>
>
>
>
>
> Here an extract of a few jocks in WA. The right hand column is the ROI for
> a $1.
>
> Caveat is these rides only include the first 5 in the market. Primitive
> means of extracting
>
> the outliers.
>
>
>
> Essentially the over round is taken out and the markets reset to 100%.
> From there an expected
>
> wins figure is arrived at. And ultimately checked against the actual.
> These have pulled at random.
>
> The first couple are interesting. Remembering these are in the first 5.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 5:13 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au>
> wrote:
>
> Tony,
>
>
>
> Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different
> rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.
>
>
>
> LBL
>
>
>
>
>
> 790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to
>
> expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame
>
> covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40%
> advanced
>
> on some others in this race.
>
>
>
> No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than
>
> that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a
>
> horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for
>
> statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a
>
> calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a
> good
>
> ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -
>
> .6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).
>
>
>
> Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is
>
> 0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is
>
> .31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign
>
> that value to it early in the calculation.
>
>
>
> Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of
>
> all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is
> a
>
> jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank
>
> jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so
>
> that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and
>
> I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all
>
> the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I
>
> individually determine an iv.
>
>
>
> There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is
>
> not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends
>
> in the sub $2 range, most of us really.
>
>
>
> This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under
>
> the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in
>
> 1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually
>
> Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is
> again
>
> divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These
>
> numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of
> the
>
> overall stat picture
>
>
>
> Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as
>
> jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from
>
> that.
>
>
>
> Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I
>
> multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.
>
> Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)
>
> Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win
>
> a race
>
> Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.
>
> Dylan Dunn = 1.1
>
>
>
> There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.
>
> This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting
>
> in it, nor do I suggest you do.
>
>
>
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