[AusRace] Jockeys generally

Wed Jan 23 09:35:40 AEDT 2019

Hi Lindsay & Roman

I work in Access and Excel.

Once you have the data in then it is a matter of running queries.

The more you do the queries, the better you get at constructing them.

I quite enjoyed Roman's questions.

But it was not my intention to bombard the list with tables.

Apart from the numbers, it also shows what you can do with a simple access
database.

Access has it's limitations in that your file cant go past 2 gig in size.

In WA, I have Ascot & Belmont in one file. I could split them. Then go to
single files for country provincial.

The beauty of Access allows you export queries etc into another file. Then
you can cut and paste the sql into
word, and find say "Ascot" and replace with say "Pinjarra". Then pull the
sql back in and the Pinjarra file is up and running.

My speed ratings that I have developed are derived from a very inefficient
method of a series of queries.

Each query generating tables for further use down the chain.

This is not the most efficient way I know. It is a convenient solution for
ME.

I will be moving across to PowerBI in time. I believe Nick Aubrey uses this
platform.

The problem is I am not as smart or clever as Nick lol.

Cheers Sean

On Wed, Jan 23, 2019 at 2:03 AM Race Stats <RaceStats at hotmail.com> wrote:

> Hi Sean,
>
> Very interesting stuff and a lot of work there!
>
> I’m interested and may well rate the jockeys, then the trainers, then
> jockey trainer combo’s to see a clearer picture of what’s what.
>
> The A2E might be better on the corrected market odds versus actual winners
> and then ROI.
>
> Just a suggestion.
>
> Lindsay
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *sean
> mclaren
> *Sent:* Tuesday, 22 January 2019 5:48 PM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally
>
>
>
> JockeyA2ETable
> Ascot
>
> Rider
>
> Distance
>
> A
>
> E
>
> NoOfRides
>
> A2E
>
> DAMIAN LANE
>
> 1000
>
> 4
>
> 4.81
>
> 166
>
> 0.83
>
> DAMIAN LANE
>
> 1200
>
> 8
>
> 23.88
>
> 218
>
> 0.34
>
> DAMIAN LANE
>
> 1400
>
> 2
>
> 7.31
>
> 193
>
> 0.27
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1000
>
> 5
>
> 22.00
>
> 193
>
> 0.23
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1100
>
> 4
>
> 8.20
>
> 84
>
> 0.49
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1200
>
> 16
>
> 25.94
>
> 316
>
> 0.62
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1400
>
> 22
>
> 28.44
>
> 452
>
> 0.77
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1500
>
> 3
>
> 5.33
>
> 55
>
> 0.56
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1600
>
> 14
>
> 14.58
>
> 260
>
> 0.96
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1800
>
> 11
>
> 10.97
>
> 96
>
> 1.00
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 2200
>
> 3
>
> 7.26
>
> 67
>
> 0.41
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1000
>
> 20
>
> 12.41
>
> 164
>
> 1.61
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1200
>
> 13
>
> 10.34
>
> 88
>
> 1.26
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1400
>
> 6
>
> 7.25
>
> 73
>
> 0.83
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1600
>
> 11
>
> 6.43
>
> 176
>
> 1.71
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1000
>
> 4
>
> 6.23
>
> 54
>
> 0.64
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1100
>
> 5
>
> 11.21
>
> 167
>
> 0.45
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1200
>
> 10
>
> 10.86
>
> 123
>
> 0.92
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1400
>
> 16
>
> 11.39
>
> 146
>
> 1.40
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1600
>
> 20
>
> 25.01
>
> 232
>
> 0.80
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1800
>
> 5
>
> 9.15
>
> 72
>
> 0.55
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 2150
>
> 1
>
> 5.39
>
> 130
>
> 0.19
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 2200
>
> 9
>
> 6.90
>
> 54
>
> 1.30
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1000
>
> 27
>
> 69.28
>
> 474
>
> 0.39
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1100
>
> 26
>
> 38.30
>
> 313
>
> 0.68
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1200
>
> 44
>
> 42.47
>
> 376
>
> 1.04
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1400
>
> 32
>
> 31.49
>
> 312
>
> 1.02
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1500
>
> 10
>
> 7.87
>
> 87
>
> 1.27
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1600
>
> 14
>
> 43.37
>
> 295
>
> 0.32
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1800
>
> 11
>
> 9.31
>
> 109
>
> 1.18
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 2200
>
> 10
>
> 6.70
>
> 70
>
> 1.49
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1000
>
> 45
>
> 57.42
>
> 408
>
> 0.78
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1100
>
> 46
>
> 86.10
>
> 630
>
> 0.53
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1200
>
> 115
>
> 105.53
>
> 695
>
> 1.09
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1400
>
> 104
>
> 101.94
>
> 623
>
> 1.02
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1500
>
> 30
>
> 31.23
>
> 164
>
> 0.96
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1600
>
> 85
>
> 77.78
>
> 541
>
> 1.09
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1800
>
> 38
>
> 39.50
>
> 196
>
> 0.96
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 2100
>
> 16
>
> 10.36
>
> 50
>
> 1.54
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 2150
>
> 2
>
> 6.87
>
> 138
>
> 0.29
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 2200
>
> 40
>
> 50.25
>
> 277
>
> 0.80
>
>
>
> Heres another extract of the SAME jocks in WA. The right hand column is
> the ROI for a $1.
>
> No caveat, these rides include ALL in the market.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, 22 Jan 2019 15:38 sean mclaren <seanmac4321 at gmail.com wrote:
>
> JockeyA2ETable
> AscotTrack
>
> Rider
>
> Distance
>
> Actual
>
> Expected
>
> Rides
>
> A2E
>
> DAMIAN LANE
>
> 1200
>
> 7
>
> 22.25
>
> 178
>
> 0.31
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1000
>
> 3
>
> 20.40
>
> 157
>
> 0.15
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1200
>
> 12
>
> 20.40
>
> 206
>
> 0.59
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1400
>
> 19
>
> 19.39
>
> 222
>
> 0.98
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1600
>
> 11
>
> 7.68
>
> 59
>
> 1.43
>
> DANIEL STAECK
>
> 1800
>
> 9
>
> 8.61
>
> 48
>
> 1.05
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1000
>
> 19
>
> 11.83
>
> 150
>
> 1.61
>
> LUCY WARWICK
>
> 1200
>
> 10
>
> 8.98
>
> 53
>
> 1.11
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1200
>
> 9
>
> 8.12
>
> 56
>
> 1.11
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1400
>
> 15
>
> 7.37
>
> 59
>
> 2.04
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1600
>
> 18
>
> 22.28
>
> 184
>
> 0.81
>
> PETER HALL
>
> 1800
>
> 4
>
> 7.88
>
> 45
>
> 0.51
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1000
>
> 26
>
> 64.45
>
> 381
>
> 0.40
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1100
>
> 26
>
> 35.25
>
> 253
>
> 0.74
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1200
>
> 36
>
> 34.01
>
> 207
>
> 1.06
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1400
>
> 27
>
> 24.39
>
> 159
>
> 1.11
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1600
>
> 11
>
> 40.31
>
> 214
>
> 0.27
>
> PETER KNUCKEY
>
> 1800
>
> 9
>
> 7.44
>
> 60
>
> 1.21
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1000
>
> 37
>
> 48.42
>
> 332
>
> 0.76
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1100
>
> 41
>
> 80.55
>
> 571
>
> 0.51
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1200
>
> 96
>
> 86.60
>
> 434
>
> 1.11
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1400
>
> 89
>
> 86.57
>
> 487
>
> 1.03
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1500
>
> 26
>
> 26.37
>
> 127
>
> 0.99
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1600
>
> 79
>
> 70.15
>
> 474
>
> 1.13
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 1800
>
> 33
>
> 35.14
>
> 159
>
> 0.94
>
> WILLIAM PIKE
>
> 2200
>
> 38
>
> 45.77
>
> 246
>
> 0.83
>
>
>
>
>
> Here an extract of a few jocks in WA. The right hand column is the ROI for
> a $1.
>
> Caveat is these rides only include the first 5 in the market. Primitive
> means of extracting
>
> the outliers.
>
>
>
> Essentially the over round is taken out and the markets reset to 100%.
> From there an expected
>
> wins figure is arrived at. And ultimately checked against the actual.
> These have pulled at random.
>
> The first couple are interesting. Remembering these are in the first 5.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 5:13 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au>
> wrote:
>
> Tony,
>
>
>
> Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different
> rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.
>
>
>
> LBL
>
>
>
>
>
> 790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to
>
> expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame
>
> covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40%
> advanced
>
> on some others in this race.
>
>
>
> No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than
>
> that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a
>
> horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for
>
> statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a
>
> calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a
> good
>
> ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -
>
> .6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).
>
>
>
> Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is
>
> 0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is
>
> .31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign
>
> that value to it early in the calculation.
>
>
>
> Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of
>
> all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is
> a
>
> jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank
>
> jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so
>
> that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and
>
> I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all
>
> the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I
>
> individually determine an iv.
>
>
>
> There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is
>
> not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends
>
> in the sub $2 range, most of us really.
>
>
>
> This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under
>
> the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in
>
> 1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually
>
> Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is
> again
>
> divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These
>
> numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of
> the
>
> overall stat picture
>
>
>
> Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as
>
> jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from
>
> that.
>
>
>
> Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I
>
> multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.
>
> Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)
>
> Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win
>
> a race
>
> Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.
>
> Dylan Dunn = 1.1
>
>
>
> There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.
>
> This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting
>
> in it, nor do I suggest you do.
>
>
>
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