[AusRace] Jockeys generally
Roman
kozza1950 at bigpond.com
Mon Jan 21 21:34:20 AEDT 2019
Hi all,
The fascination of it all is that two raters could have the same jockey
literally poles apart depending on criterias chosen.
I have never rated jockeys nor trainers as I wonder if there is all that
much between a number of them at the top level. If the SP figures is a solid
determinant of the overall structure of horse racing does it not figure
those jockeys that ride well on well fancied horses are giving the horses
the chance of winning the market determines. Say Jockey A has 100 rides in
races in town on favs and scores 35% of the time is he not a fraction better
than Jockey B who rides 32%. So the next time the two jockeys meet on say
favs at 2/1 and 9/4 (close) but the 32% jockey rides an on pacer and the 35%
jockey rides a chronic get back type where does the ratings look now. It
would be best to rate them all on their ability with leaders, on pacers, mid
fielders and get back types and another set of figures comes up far more
accurate, imho, than just a raw wins and wins and placings.
I look forward to Len's reply.
Roman Koz
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Monday, January 21, 2019 6:12 PM
To: tonymoffat at bigpond.com; racing at ausrace.com
Subject: [AusRace] Jockeys generally
Tony,
Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different
rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.
LBL
790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to
expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame
covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40% advanced
on some others in this race.
No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than
that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a
horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for
statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a
calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a good
ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -
.6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).
Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is
0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is
.31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign
that value to it early in the calculation.
Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of
all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is a
jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank
jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so
that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and
I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all
the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I
individually determine an iv.
There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is
not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends
in the sub $2 range, most of us really.
This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under
the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in
1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually
Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is again
divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These
numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of the
overall stat picture
Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as
jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from
that.
Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I
multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.
Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)
Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win
a race
Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.
Dylan Dunn = 1.1
There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.
This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting
in it, nor do I suggest you do.
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