[AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB

Wed Dec 18 13:44:21 AEDT 2019

And there is another example Peter,
BSP $2.48 minus commission, Best Tote $2.70, opened at $3.90, drifted to $4.00 before being backed in.
Mediated was opening favourite and ran nowhere.
The 14% quoted by Betfair is rubbish on favourites.
In this case you lost 8.1% plus commission betting with Betfair!
Lindsay

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Wednesday, 18 December 2019 12:55 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB

You can download final BSP on DO, and they display "Projected SP" (Win) during betting, which has a tenuous relationship to those displayed on BF's site - even with my refresh rate set at 5 sec, it is waste of time other than to capture finals, but I'll not be doing that. They don't display Projected SP (Place).

Nowhere have I seen a display of how much is matched at BSP, or even an indication, and I think it is misleading for BF to display:

[cid:image001.png at 01D5B5A8.CBA1A800]

which suggests, to me, that the volume matched for the BSP was $230,969/$11,472, when they were for the normal win and place bets, not BSP. Why are they not displaying BSP volume? Can't be too hard!

From: Racing On Behalf Of sean mclaren
Sent: Wednesday, 18 December 2019 7:30 AM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB

hello len

a wealth of info, as usual; i see.

i didn't see that coming i must admit.

Peter, i concede; that being able to predict the fav at 9.00 am; is difficult.

Can I preface that by, if you haven't tried.

I have data, lots of it. So I went and attempted to do just that, some time back.

The exercise was simply to improve my understanding of the wagering landscape.

At the time, it wasn't an attempt to form any sort of wagering strategy.

Can I predict the favourite? What factors contribute to the arrival of the fav?

Part of my daily routine sees me modelling, from time to time; different sets of data.

Sometimes it's a blessing, sometimes it can be a curse.

Having loads of data, that is. Getting lost in the sea of data lol.

The results were positive.

I would encourage you Peter, and anyone else for that matter; to simply practice.

Keep, what the MBA types call, a decision making journal. (michael mauboussin)

A notepad, a spreadsheet ..... whatever.

Draw up column headings with MAIN factors.

Don't go wide. Simply use a Form Guide. A wealth of information at a glance.
Yes, you can use the 100 Score/Rating that's published.

In arriving at MAIN factors, to start with, simply use what you THINK.

As you move forward, perhaps it ain't what it seems.

I think it's Rob W, who coined the phrase " the lie of the eye".

In this case, maybe "the lie of what you think".

As the results flow, perhaps leave as is, if some other factor pops up, then add to the side.

Even restart the cycle, with that added factor; if you want.

Peter, if you followed this exercise; your ability to predict the favourite; surely has changed.

Do I need to say, we are not looking at winning favs here, simply what is the FAV.

The purpose of me putting pen to paper, apologies for the wordiness; is to simply challenge people's thinking.

And hopefully lead to better wagering.

Ponder this, sitting there at 8.45 am and seeing that your top selection is on the 3rd line.

And, you predict your selection will be the SP Fav.

Ignore that it's your selection even.

Your selection is pre post Fav, and you predict another horse will be Fav.

Gotta stop. You can predict the fav. You won't do it with 100% accuracy.

The point is, your thinking has changed.

And it follows that you will make better wagering decisions.

.

having software would surely

On Tue, Dec 17, 2019 at 7:34 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au<mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au>> wrote:
Peter, you are still around!

Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?)

I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late scratchings (after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats.

4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate.

Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than TAB.

How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands.

Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and don't forget their disclaimer "Price comparison removes Betfair commission charges" - that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB dividend.

LBL

From: Racing On Behalf Of Peter Dean
Sent: Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB

Hi,

Looking for advice on how to avg. about  12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite.

Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on.

Thanks in advance,

Peter
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