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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#365F91">And there is another example Peter,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#365F91">BSP $2.48 minus commission, Best Tote $2.70, opened at $3.90, drifted to $4.00 before being backed in.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#365F91">Mediated was opening favourite and ran nowhere.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#365F91">The 14% quoted by Betfair is rubbish on favourites.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#365F91">In this case you lost 8.1% plus commission betting with Betfair!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#365F91">Lindsay<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:#365F91"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 18 December 2019 12:55 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">You can download final BSP on DO, and they display "Projected SP" (Win) during betting, which has a tenuous relationship to those displayed on BF's site - even with my refresh rate set
at 5 sec, it is waste of time other than to capture finals, but I'll not be doing that. They don't display Projected SP (Place).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Nowhere have I seen a display of how much is matched at BSP, or even an indication, and I think it is misleading for BF to display:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><img width="1066" height="136" id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image001.png@01D5B5A8.CBA1A800"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">which suggests, to me, that the volume matched for the BSP was $230,969/$11,472, when they were for the normal win and place bets, not BSP. Why are they not displaying BSP volume? Can't
be too hard!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US"> Racing
<b>On Behalf Of </b>sean mclaren<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 18 December 2019 7:30 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing@ausrace.com><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">hello len<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">a wealth of info, as usual; i see.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">i didn't see that coming i must admit.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Peter, i concede; that being able to predict the fav at 9.00 am; is difficult.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Can I preface that by, if you haven't tried.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">I have data, lots of it. So I went and attempted to do just that, some time back.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">The exercise was simply to improve my understanding of the wagering landscape.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">At the time, it wasn't an attempt to form any sort of wagering strategy. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Can I predict the favourite? What factors contribute to the arrival of the fav?<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Part of my daily routine sees me modelling, from time to time; different sets of data.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Sometimes it's a blessing, sometimes it can be a curse. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Having loads of data, that is. Getting lost in the sea of data lol.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">The results were positive. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">I would encourage you Peter, and anyone else for that matter; to simply practice.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Keep, what the MBA types call, a decision making journal. (michael mauboussin)<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">A notepad, a spreadsheet ..... whatever.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Draw up column headings with MAIN factors. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Don't go wide. Simply use a Form Guide. A wealth of information at a glance.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Yes, you can use the 100 Score/Rating that's published.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">In arriving at MAIN factors, to start with, simply use what you THINK. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">As you move forward, perhaps it ain't what it seems.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">I think it's Rob W, who coined the phrase " the lie of the eye".<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">In this case, maybe "the lie of what you think".<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">As the results flow, perhaps leave as is, if some other factor pops up, then add to the side.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Even restart the cycle, with that added factor; if you want.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Peter, if you followed this exercise; your ability to predict the favourite; surely has changed.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Do I need to say, we are not looking at winning favs here, simply what is the FAV.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">The purpose of me putting pen to paper, apologies for the wordiness; is to simply challenge people's thinking.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">And hopefully lead to better wagering. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Ponder this, sitting there at 8.45 am and seeing that your top selection is on the 3rd line.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">And, you predict your selection will be the SP Fav. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Ignore that it's your selection even.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Your selection is pre post Fav, and you predict another horse will be Fav.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Gotta stop. You can predict the fav. You won't do it with 100% accuracy. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">The point is, your thinking has changed. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">And it follows that you will make better wagering decisions.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">having software would surely <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On Tue, Dec 17, 2019 at 7:34 PM L.B.Loveday <<a href="mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au">lloveday@ozemail.com.au</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black">Peter, you are still around!</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black">Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?)</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black">I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late scratchings
(after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black">4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black">Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than TAB.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black">How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="color:black">Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and don't forget their disclaimer "</span><strong><span style="font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"">Price
comparison removes Betfair commission charges" </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";font-weight:normal">- that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB dividend.</span></strong><b><span style="color:black">
</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="color:black"> </span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="color:black">LBL</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="color:black"> </span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span style="color:black"> </span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><b><span lang="EN-US">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US"> Racing
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Peter Dean<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Hi,</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better
ways that people are happy to advise on.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Thanks in advance,</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black">Peter</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">_______________________________________________<br>
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