[AusRace] One for Len

Sat Dec 7 07:22:31 AEDT 2019

Len

maximising your price is better than not. it simply makes commercial sense.
let's not use "overs".

the ACTUAL selections will determine success or not, as long as you are
getting better prices than your OWN prices.

if you ain't got the selections you ain't got a chance to profit.

BTW the pundits say you can't make money betting into the early 120% plus
markets.

moreso with the introduction of the POC.

we both know that is not true. because that is what you do.

that is not to say, there is NO impact.

i suspect it's impact is much lesser, given the location of your fishing
spot.

i don't know how the pundits keep associating a line in the market with the
overround.

a horse at  $10 in 135% mkt versus a $10 in a 105% mkt.

the horse is $10, there is no guilt via association.

what it tells me, is they don't know their own "strike rates".

understanding your own "strike rates" means having a much
deeper understanding, well beyond using that nebulous term;
average.

put simply, the pundits don't have a clue what is value, and more
importantly; what is not.

apologies for the wordiness.

BTW my old habits comment was referring to the trip to the pub lol.

On Sat, Dec 7, 2019 at 5:25 AM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

> Sean,
>
>
>
> Again we see that "overs" is no guarantee of success (and that is so even
> long term in races, unlike, eg getting 2.10 on the toss of a coin where the
> odds are definitely evens; in races the final odds are determined by
> opinions and the amount of money backing those opinions) - for the 11 bets
> where there were no late scratchings, I averaged 25% better than top Final
> Fixed Odds, but lost comprehensively.
>
>
>
> A few days ago I had 18 bets which would have returned $17 for $18 outlay
> at level $1 stake, a smallish loss, but because of MBL, I could only get
> $31 on the only collect at 17.0 while having more on each of the 17 losers
> for a large loss.
>
>
>
> LBL
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *sean mclaren
> *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 16:30 PM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len
>
>
>
> old habits die hard lol
>
>
>
> On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 3:22 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au>
> wrote:
>
> Been out, returned just before the next bet (I've just 12 for the day)
> Mudgee 6/10, 2.20 with B365 at 9:00:20am (they don't bet before the MBL
> time).
>
>
>
> At scheduled jump time, 1.86 was top offered price and indicative BSP
> 1.71. Final top offered price 1.88 and BSP 1.98.  Final top Fixed Place
> price was 1.70 from TAB.
>
>
>
> The other 10 are:
>
>
>
> Mudge 7/5 3.10P
>
> Randw 4/8 7.50P
>
> Mudge 8/15 11.0P
>
> MtGmb 5/9 7.50P
>
> Randw 5/8 8.00P
>
> Devon 4/7 4.20P
>
> Randw 6/7 2.30P  LATE SCRATCHING, now 2 divs with Fixed Prices.
>
> MtGmb 8/1 2.50P
>
> MVall 4/1 4.00W
>
> SCoas 3/3 3.50P
>
>
>
> I'll be at the pub during the running of them all except Mudge 7, so no
> reports will be forthcoming!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *sean mclaren
> *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 15:38 PM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len
>
>
>
> Len
>
>
>
> The fact that you are doing this both before after the POC intro, is
> excellent.
>
>
>
> Like fishing, you have to know the right spot lol.
>
>
>
> rgds Sean
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 1:47 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au>
> wrote:
>
> I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price
> 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me.
>
>
>
> Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings
> (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of
> TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final
> Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor.
>
>
>
> The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13
> at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to
> MBL at any time.
>
>
>
> 5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and
> the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was
> $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP.
>
>
>
> At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01
>
>
>
> Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and
> final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on
> winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064).
> Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport.
>
>
>
> Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can
> get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea,
> but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price.
>
>
>
> I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my
> experience, typical.
>
>
>
> And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair,  you are competing
> with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair
> turnover!
>
>
>
> Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners,
> no late scratchings:
>
>
>
> Final Average Win% book
>
> 11/2015   108.1
>
> 11/2016   108.6
>
> 11/2017   109.1
>
> 11/2018   109.2
>
> 11/2019   110.6
>
>
>
> Final Average Win% book
>
> All 2015   107.8
>
> All 2016   108.1
>
> All 2017   109.1
>
> All 2018   109.9
>
> All 2019   109.7
>
>
>
> Final average Place% book
>
> 11/2015   108.5
>
> 11/2016   108.4
>
> 11/2017   109.2
>
> 11/2018   110.8
>
> 11/2019   110.8
>
>
>
> Final average Place% book
>
> All 2015   108.1
>
> All 2016   107.6
>
> All 2017   108.9
>
> All 2018   109.8
>
> All 2019   110.2
>
>
>
> AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by
> commission.
>
>
>
> In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the
> horse you want to back.
>
>
>
> For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more
> runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all):
>
>
>
> Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at
> Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 -
> from Dynamic Odds figures.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *Ken Blake
> *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM
> *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len
>
>
>
> Mike….I just don’t understand why anyone would have accounts with these
> thieves,
>
>
>
> They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most
> annoyingly act with impunity most of the time.
>
> I understand Len’s Modus Operandi is early bet placement…but what’s the
> point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers.
>
>
>
> I just don’t get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price
> against Corporate opening prices….over the journey you’re probably in front
> with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on.
>
>
>
> Ken
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>] *On Behalf Of *mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
> *Sent:* Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM
> *To:* racing at ausrace.com
> *Subject:* [AusRace] One for Len
>
>
>
>
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486
>
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