[AusRace] One for Len

Sat Dec 7 06:24:49 AEDT 2019

Sean,

Again we see that "overs" is no guarantee of success (and that is so even long term in races, unlike, eg getting 2.10 on the toss of a coin where the odds are definitely evens; in races the final odds are determined by opinions and the amount of money backing those opinions) - for the 11 bets where there were no late scratchings, I averaged 25% better than top Final Fixed Odds, but lost comprehensively.

A few days ago I had 18 bets which would have returned $17 for $18 outlay at level $1 stake, a smallish loss, but because of MBL, I could only get $31 on the only collect at 17.0 while having more on each of the 17 losers for a large loss.

LBL

From: Racing On Behalf Of sean mclaren
Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 16:30 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len

old habits die hard lol

On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 3:22 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au <mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au> > wrote:

Been out, returned just before the next bet (I've just 12 for the day) Mudgee 6/10, 2.20 with B365 at 9:00:20am (they don't bet before the MBL time).

At scheduled jump time, 1.86 was top offered price and indicative BSP 1.71. Final top offered price 1.88 and BSP 1.98.  Final top Fixed Place price was 1.70 from TAB.

The other 10 are:

Mudge 7/5 3.10P

Randw 4/8 7.50P

Mudge 8/15 11.0P

MtGmb 5/9 7.50P

Randw 5/8 8.00P

Devon 4/7 4.20P

Randw 6/7 2.30P  LATE SCRATCHING, now 2 divs with Fixed Prices.

MtGmb 8/1 2.50P

MVall 4/1 4.00W

SCoas 3/3 3.50P 

I'll be at the pub during the running of them all except Mudge 7, so no reports will be forthcoming!

From: Racing On Behalf Of sean mclaren
Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 15:38 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len

Len

The fact that you are doing this both before after the POC intro, is excellent. 

Like fishing, you have to know the right spot lol.

rgds Sean

On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 1:47 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au <mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au> > wrote:

I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me.

Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor.

The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13 at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to MBL at any time.

5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP.

At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01

Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064). Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport.

Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea, but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price.

I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my experience, typical.

And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair,  you are competing with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair turnover!

Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners, no late scratchings:

Final Average Win% book  

11/2015   108.1

11/2016   108.6

11/2017   109.1

11/2018   109.2

11/2019   110.6

Final Average Win% book  

All 2015   107.8

All 2016   108.1

All 2017   109.1

All 2018   109.9

All 2019   109.7

Final average Place% book 

11/2015   108.5

11/2016   108.4

11/2017   109.2

11/2018   110.8

11/2019   110.8

Final average Place% book 

All 2015   108.1

All 2016   107.6

All 2017   108.9

All 2018   109.8

All 2019   110.2 

AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by commission.

In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the horse you want to back.

For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all):

Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 - from Dynamic Odds figures.

From: Racing On Behalf Of Ken Blake
Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len

Mike….I just don’t understand why anyone would have accounts with these thieves,

They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most annoyingly act with impunity most of the time.

I understand Len’s Modus Operandi is early bet placement…but what’s the point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers.

I just don’t get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price against Corporate opening prices….over the journey you’re probably in front with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on.

Ken

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of mikemcbain at tpg.com.au <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au> 
Sent: Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> 
Subject: [AusRace] One for Len

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486

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