[AusRace] One for Len

Fri Dec 6 16:29:38 AEDT 2019

old habits die hard lol

On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 3:22 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

> Been out, returned just before the next bet (I've just 12 for the day)
> Mudgee 6/10, 2.20 with B365 at 9:00:20am (they don't bet before the MBL
> time).
>
>
>
> At scheduled jump time, 1.86 was top offered price and indicative BSP
> 1.71. Final top offered price 1.88 and BSP 1.98.  Final top Fixed Place
> price was 1.70 from TAB.
>
>
>
> The other 10 are:
>
>
>
> Mudge 7/5 3.10P
>
> Randw 4/8 7.50P
>
> Mudge 8/15 11.0P
>
> MtGmb 5/9 7.50P
>
> Randw 5/8 8.00P
>
> Devon 4/7 4.20P
>
> Randw 6/7 2.30P  LATE SCRATCHING, now 2 divs with Fixed Prices.
>
> MtGmb 8/1 2.50P
>
> MVall 4/1 4.00W
>
> SCoas 3/3 3.50P
>
>
>
> I'll be at the pub during the running of them all except Mudge 7, so no
> reports will be forthcoming!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *sean mclaren
> *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 15:38 PM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len
>
>
>
> Len
>
>
>
> The fact that you are doing this both before after the POC intro, is
> excellent.
>
>
>
> Like fishing, you have to know the right spot lol.
>
>
>
> rgds Sean
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 1:47 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au>
> wrote:
>
> I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price
> 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me.
>
>
>
> Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings
> (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of
> TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final
> Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor.
>
>
>
> The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13
> at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to
> MBL at any time.
>
>
>
> 5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and
> the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was
> $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP.
>
>
>
> At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01
>
>
>
> Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and
> final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on
> winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064).
> Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport.
>
>
>
> Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can
> get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea,
> but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price.
>
>
>
> I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my
> experience, typical.
>
>
>
> And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair,  you are competing
> with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair
> turnover!
>
>
>
> Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners,
> no late scratchings:
>
>
>
> Final Average Win% book
>
> 11/2015   108.1
>
> 11/2016   108.6
>
> 11/2017   109.1
>
> 11/2018   109.2
>
> 11/2019   110.6
>
>
>
> Final Average Win% book
>
> All 2015   107.8
>
> All 2016   108.1
>
> All 2017   109.1
>
> All 2018   109.9
>
> All 2019   109.7
>
>
>
> Final average Place% book
>
> 11/2015   108.5
>
> 11/2016   108.4
>
> 11/2017   109.2
>
> 11/2018   110.8
>
> 11/2019   110.8
>
>
>
> Final average Place% book
>
> All 2015   108.1
>
> All 2016   107.6
>
> All 2017   108.9
>
> All 2018   109.8
>
> All 2019   110.2
>
>
>
> AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by
> commission.
>
>
>
> In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the
> horse you want to back.
>
>
>
> For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more
> runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all):
>
>
>
> Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at
> Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 -
> from Dynamic Odds figures.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *Ken Blake
> *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM
> *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len
>
>
>
> Mike….I just don’t understand why anyone would have accounts with these
> thieves,
>
>
>
> They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most
> annoyingly act with impunity most of the time.
>
> I understand Len’s Modus Operandi is early bet placement…but what’s the
> point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers.
>
>
>
> I just don’t get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price
> against Corporate opening prices….over the journey you’re probably in front
> with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on.
>
>
>
> Ken
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>] *On Behalf Of *mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
> *Sent:* Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM
> *To:* racing at ausrace.com
> *Subject:* [AusRace] One for Len
>
>
>
>
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486
>
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