[AusRace] Jockey Plan - a system

[norsaintpublishing at gmail.com]

Speaking of formguides and their arrival dates, Best Bets is now available
in a lot of places in Victoria at least, on Thursday morning.
However for some reason, it doesn't make Mornington (an hour from Melbourne
-  where it's printed) until Friday. I  used to have to  drive to Frankston
(10 minutes away) to pick it up on the Thursday. And yet the same
publication is available in Brisbane on Thursday mornings apparently. At
Cairns, it turns up on a Friday, the same as Mornington.
As the man says, go figure.

On Sun, 18 Aug 2019 at 13:38, Tony Moffat <tonymoffat at bigpond.com> wrote:

> This one was never for sale - it is/was the private plan of a man who
> tipped
> me the winner of the Adelaide Cup, this was in the 60's (Rainlover).
>
> What happened was this man was reading The Sportsman in the hotel on Friday
> -and that is amazing. Getting a newspaper on the day of publication in that
> town was impossible, rare, difficult.
>
> The Sportsman is published on Friday and it gets taken to the train for
> distribution across the state (NSW). There is a mail train that leaves at
> 2.00pm from Central for Albury and your paper might be on that, otherwise,
> it will be on one of three expresses leaving later in the day and evening.
> Everything, trainwise, pauses at Coota for the regulatory 2 minutes before
> the whistle goes and so does the train. Trouble is now it is evening, after
> closing of the shops, and most everything, and the papers sit there,
> bundles
> or rolled up and they are not collected until the following morning when
> they become available for sale.
>
>  Most Saturdays I rode the 41 miles from home to Cootamundra for The
> Sportsman, Fridays SMH, and anything else newsworthy and did the business
> at
> the rear door of the shop. I was home by 8.00am mostly. I worked in the
> hotel on Friday evenings, with the town SP as it happened, and this was as
> a
> volunteer for the football club. The man with the paper had stopped here on
> his way to Adelaide for the Cup I told you about before. I noticed the
> paper
> and the horse racing conversation went from there. His paper came from
> Parramatta, he drove the intervening hours to where we were, and he left
> the
> paper with me.
>
> His plan, there may have been several, was to use the stats in The
> Sportsman
> to choose the hot jockeys although his stats were from the previous 12
> months. There is/was a table in the paper which shows the money earned for
> the last 100 rides, the win and place stats for those, plus other
> information that he used. His plan is not centred around the win or place
> record of the riders although it is from the riders last 100 rides,  so it
> transcends the racing year which seems to reset itself in August. He uses
> either the win and place record of the riders last 100 rides, or, the money
> earned off the jockeys last 100 rides. The money clause was then only
> available for metro Melbourne and Sydney racing whereas the win/place
> record
> is available for most centres. The first 4 riders calculated off one set of
> data are often the same when using the other data, only the ranking between
> the sets differs. The money clause seemed to be stronger although he said
> it
> was a personal preference, it seemed to involve something others may not
> have been using (although the stats were provided exactly for that) After
> the best 4 riders were chosen, their rides were tested also on an average
> prizemoney (now API) and place ranking. From this he selected his bets, one
> of the best 4 riders, riding one of the best horses (off their API and
> place
> ranking)
>
> Summary:
> Riders - List the first 4 riders using their money earned off their last
> 100
> rides
> Horses- List the first 4 runners with the highest API and the biggest place
> strike rate per centage.
>
> Choose your bets from any rider (from their earnings) on any of the best
> horses (from their stats).
> How to avoid a blockage is your problem, occasionally the best two riders
> are on horses 3 and 4 in the stats
> Or some other combination of first and second or otherwise from the three
> data sets.
>
> It appears (seems) that the best of both are often the race favourite -
> read
> on
>
> The system picked the winners of
> Caulfield R1, R2,R3, R5, and R9
>
> Caulfield R9 17/08/19 - 5 Grey Shadow, 12 Victory Kingdom (this was
> Allen/Kah on 1/2nd choice off horse stats) 9.00/5.00
> This shows the conundrum, the blockage mentioned, decided by horse stats
> and
> not by rider ability solely - good luck with this.
> Caulfield R8 17/08/19 - 1 Hartnell perhaps and Kenedna but in effect there
> were others, including the winner who could be counted in
> Caulfield R7 17/08/19 - The winner was missed, rider choice 1 and 2
> ignored,
> and choice 3 and 4 on horse 1 and 2 ran into the places.
> Caulfield R6 17/08/19 - 4 Exhilarates won and it was 2nd on rider score and
> second on horse score. 7.00
> Caulfield R5 17/08/19 -  6 Age of Chivalry won - this was the system
> working
> as planned. 2.40
> Caulfield R4 17/08/19 -  The winner was missed, poor horse stats, nothing
> joyful happened when combining any of the data - stay out
> Caulfield R2 17/08/19 -  1st and 2nd chosen - this was the system working
> as
> planned
> Caulfield R1 17/08/19 -  1st and 2nd chosen - this was the system working
> as
> planned
>
> Who bets every race? anyway. Race 3 was ignored 6 runners (and no joy
> either) - I wouldn't evaluate this one off one days racing.
> Other meetings were similarly successful.
>
> I have sometimes regarded the jockey as a necessary requirement,  there to
> wear a colorful shirt, carry the correct weight,
> steer, and pull faces at the end, and blame the barrier when finishing
> further back than 4th. The top few jockeys made a difference here.
>
> The mans working on form in races is interesting. Next time.
>
> Cheers
>
> Tony
>
>
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