[AusRace] Jockey Plan - a system

[Tony Moffat]

This one was never for sale - it is/was the private plan of a man who tipped
me the winner of the Adelaide Cup, this was in the 60's (Rainlover). 

What happened was this man was reading The Sportsman in the hotel on Friday
-and that is amazing. Getting a newspaper on the day of publication in that
town was impossible, rare, difficult.

The Sportsman is published on Friday and it gets taken to the train for
distribution across the state (NSW). There is a mail train that leaves at
2.00pm from Central for Albury and your paper might be on that, otherwise,
it will be on one of three expresses leaving later in the day and evening.
Everything, trainwise, pauses at Coota for the regulatory 2 minutes before
the whistle goes and so does the train. Trouble is now it is evening, after
closing of the shops, and most everything, and the papers sit there, bundles
or rolled up and they are not collected until the following morning when
they become available for sale.

 Most Saturdays I rode the 41 miles from home to Cootamundra for The
Sportsman, Fridays SMH, and anything else newsworthy and did the business at
the rear door of the shop. I was home by 8.00am mostly. I worked in the
hotel on Friday evenings, with the town SP as it happened, and this was as a
volunteer for the football club. The man with the paper had stopped here on
his way to Adelaide for the Cup I told you about before. I noticed the paper
and the horse racing conversation went from there. His paper came from
Parramatta, he drove the intervening hours to where we were, and he left the
paper with me.

His plan, there may have been several, was to use the stats in The Sportsman
to choose the hot jockeys although his stats were from the previous 12
months. There is/was a table in the paper which shows the money earned for
the last 100 rides, the win and place stats for those, plus other
information that he used. His plan is not centred around the win or place
record of the riders although it is from the riders last 100 rides,  so it
transcends the racing year which seems to reset itself in August. He uses
either the win and place record of the riders last 100 rides, or, the money
earned off the jockeys last 100 rides. The money clause was then only
available for metro Melbourne and Sydney racing whereas the win/place record
is available for most centres. The first 4 riders calculated off one set of
data are often the same when using the other data, only the ranking between
the sets differs. The money clause seemed to be stronger although he said it
was a personal preference, it seemed to involve something others may not
have been using (although the stats were provided exactly for that) After
the best 4 riders were chosen, their rides were tested also on an average
prizemoney (now API) and place ranking. From this he selected his bets, one
of the best 4 riders, riding one of the best horses (off their API and place
ranking)

Summary:
Riders - List the first 4 riders using their money earned off their last 100
rides
Horses- List the first 4 runners with the highest API and the biggest place
strike rate per centage.

Choose your bets from any rider (from their earnings) on any of the best
horses (from their stats).
How to avoid a blockage is your problem, occasionally the best two riders
are on horses 3 and 4 in the stats
Or some other combination of first and second or otherwise from the three
data sets.

It appears (seems) that the best of both are often the race favourite - read
on

The system picked the winners of
Caulfield R1, R2,R3, R5, and R9

Caulfield R9 17/08/19 - 5 Grey Shadow, 12 Victory Kingdom (this was
Allen/Kah on 1/2nd choice off horse stats) 9.00/5.00
This shows the conundrum, the blockage mentioned, decided by horse stats and
not by rider ability solely - good luck with this.
Caulfield R8 17/08/19 - 1 Hartnell perhaps and Kenedna but in effect there
were others, including the winner who could be counted in
Caulfield R7 17/08/19 - The winner was missed, rider choice 1 and 2 ignored,
and choice 3 and 4 on horse 1 and 2 ran into the places.
Caulfield R6 17/08/19 - 4 Exhilarates won and it was 2nd on rider score and
second on horse score. 7.00
Caulfield R5 17/08/19 -  6 Age of Chivalry won - this was the system working
as planned. 2.40
Caulfield R4 17/08/19 -  The winner was missed, poor horse stats, nothing
joyful happened when combining any of the data - stay out
Caulfield R2 17/08/19 -  1st and 2nd chosen - this was the system working as
planned
Caulfield R1 17/08/19 -  1st and 2nd chosen - this was the system working as
planned

Who bets every race? anyway. Race 3 was ignored 6 runners (and no joy
either) - I wouldn't evaluate this one off one days racing.
Other meetings were similarly successful. 

I have sometimes regarded the jockey as a necessary requirement,  there to
wear a colorful shirt, carry the correct weight,
steer, and pull faces at the end, and blame the barrier when finishing
further back than 4th. The top few jockeys made a difference here.

The mans working on form in races is interesting. Next time.

Cheers

Tony


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