[AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3
Steve
essbee at internode.on.net
Wed Jun 20 14:15:08 AEST 2018
Why would you bother trying to do time for a jumps race?
Would it not be an exercise in futility?
Times are just one factor of zilions, and doubt they would be of much
use in a jumps race.
In brief....if your standard was perhaps 67.5 for 1200 at Somewheresville
and your expected class was maybe 99% of your standard
so your class figure in that case is going to be 90.
If they were to run the race in 68.5 then the raw speed will be ~85.4
rather than the expected 90
90-85.4 would have the track running 4.6 slow.
When you originally figured all the times and classes you would have
normalised then so that zero is neutral(neither fast or slow track).
Of course that difference does not necessarily mean the track was that
slow....it could have been won by a horse better/worse than average for
that class, or the pace could have had some effect, or, or or.
But you would have code to try and account for that stuff, and a meeting
is not just one race, so you might have 8 races, and did the above for
all of them and the adjustments for various extraneous things.
You could find the deviations between expected and actual for the
meeting and the smaller the deviation, then likely the more accurate.
Anyway, just assuming for this meet the track was measured as slow by 4.6
Another day it may be fast by some amount(-ve) and then another, might
tell you it was slow by 30, 40, 50, whatever.
Overall I am confident you get a better picture of the going than the
official.
Against that though, it's only AFTER the races that you know all this,
although you do it as the meet progresses to give you an idea.
But at the end of the day, it's just one thing, although those that do
the statistical models and have numbers that are done as well as
possible, usually have the time stuff as the most predictive of all form
factors.
I can't vouch for that, as I don't do the modelling, but that's what
they tell me.
SteveB
On 20/06/2018 12:27 PM, Race Stats wrote:
>
> Hi Steve,
>
> I know you’re the time guru, but your post has me scratching my head.
>
> How will your standards tell you the going, when it might be a number
> of Group 1 and Maiden races?
>
> Or in Melbourne most Group 1 races are run in Spring when the tracks
> are better going, and Open races are run all year round.
>
> Then there’s 3200m hurdles and steeples etc, obviously the time is
> going to be quite different to all flat races over 3200m, so the
> hurdles and steeples will seem Heavy 10 and the flat races will seem
> Firm 2…..just putting it out there, as that’s just an example of how
> deriving track condition from time is error prone.
>
> Lindsay.
>
> *From:*Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *Steve
> *Sent:* Wednesday, 20 June 2018 9:20 AM
> *To:* racing at ausrace.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3
>
> No you don't need a time for each going.
> If you dissected the times that Tony put up as an example, you would
> see that they are all over the place relatively.
> Most people that do it that way get, the same inconsistencies,
> And remember that word....relatively.....as it's the most important
> thing to consider when doing time
> One time for each distance at each track is all you need.
> That way your standards will tell you the going, probably more
> accurately than the official which is after all just an opinion of
> whoever is doing whichever track.
>
> Good luck though as there is so many inaccurate times, wrong
> distances, and three zillion ways of giving the section times.
>
> SteveB
>
> On 19/06/2018 11:41 PM, Race Stats wrote:
>
> Hi Nick,
>
> Regarding Len’s suggestions regarding par times, I thought I’d
> give you a little bit of extra information.
>
> Par times by themselves are pretty nebulous as Len suggests.
>
> If you’re familiar with Excel, here is my recommendation.
>
> Often you will find that track record times are often on many
> races one day at a venue, so obviously the track is faster than
> the rating.
>
> Forget Class records, they mean very little overall.
>
> Take the race times and dissect them into overall time, final
> sectional time and then race time minus sectional time, this will
> give you the pace time.
>
> You MUST have a par time for every going condition not just Soft,
> you need Soft5, Soft6, Soft7.
>
> Look at the top horses that won with fast race time, then fast
> last sectional, then pace time.
>
> You’ll soon see the impact of what is useful and what is not.
>
> You’ll also see where the track rating is obviously wrong when all
> or most races are above that par.
>
> Course manager must lodge the track going prior to 6.50am on race
> day, they cannot change the track rating for the day after that
> period, only the Stewards or Jockeys can suggest to Stewards a
> change in track rating. Ergo, there are many ratings that are not
> correct.
>
> Lindsay.
>
> *From:*Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of
> *norsaintpublishing at gmail.com <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Monday, 18 June 2018 9:33 PM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3
>
> Ok thanks Len. Not sure if I'm au fait enough with the concept to
> come up with anything so sophisticated as an algorithm. If I do,
> you'll be my first port of call.
>
> Did fiddle around with ideas by Gavin Haynes a few year's ago but
> his stats must be outdated by now.
>
> For some reason all the replies have come through aggregated which
> makes replying damned confusing.
>
>
>
>
>
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> 18/06/18, 21:27:22
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 9:26 PM norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
> <norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>> wrote:
>
> G'day Mike,
>
> Thanks for the suggestion. I got that email too but
> had forgotten all about it. Must be an age thing.
>
>
>
>
>
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> 18/06/18, 21:24:56
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> <mailto:racing-request at ausrace.com>> wrote:
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> Today's Topics:
>
> 1. Par times (norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>)
> 2. Re: Par times (mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
> <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au>)
> 3. Re: Par times (L.B.Loveday)
> 4. Re: Par times (Tony Moffat)
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
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> Message: 1
> Date: Sun, 17 Jun 2018 17:34:08 +1000
> From: "norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>"
> <norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>>
> To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: [AusRace] Par times
> Message-ID:
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> Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
>
>
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> Message: 2
> Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:03:10 +1000
> From: <mikemcbain at tpg.com.au <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au>>
> To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
> Message-ID: <001f01d406a0$20e59d80$62b0d880$@tpg.com.au
> <http://tpg.com.au>>
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> Norsaint
>
>
>
> Neale Yardley recently made the following comment in an
> email?.
>
>
>
> ?Again my thanks go to Steven Angelides from PPFA for
> providing the par times. Steven is back in Australia from
> Hong Kong and is touring Australia if anyone would like to
> catch up with him (he is happy to talk about Bet Selector,
> PPFA, Hong Kong or anything else racing related). Venues
> and dates are listed below but please note Steven has a
> new mobile number which is 0413164550. His email is still
> the same viz <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au
> <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au>> stavros at wn.com.au
> <mailto:stavros at wn.com.au>?
>
>
>
> Might be worth your while asking Steven?
>
>
>
> Mike.
>
>
>
>
>
> From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>> On Behalf Of
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
> Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 17:34
> To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: [AusRace] Par times
>
>
>
>
> <https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275>
>
>
>
> Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
>
>
>
>
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> Message: 3
> Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:49:07 +1000
> From: "L.B.Loveday" <lloveday at ozemail.com.au
> <mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au>>
> To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
> Message-ID:
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>
> Nick,
>
>
>
> "Par times" is, to me, a nebulous term - they can be
> calculated in various ways, times are affected by track
> condition (not only on the day, but by permanent upgrades
> such as at Gawler), rail positioning, wind direction,
> riding tactics, in-race mishaps such as a fall, the class
> of horses, whether there are zero, one, two? "natural"
> leaders and whether they vie for the lead, weight conditions??
>
>
>
> So I never consider them, but I do have a database of
> every Australian race for the past 20+ years, including:
>
>
>
> Date,
>
> Course,
>
> Distance,
>
> Class,
>
> Limit Weight,
>
> Weight carried by placegetters,
>
> Condition,
>
> No of starters,
>
> Prizemoney,
>
> and of course Time
>
>
>
> You determine an algorithm for calculating par times and
> I'll write a program and send you the results; otherwise
> you are just relying on someone else's methodology, almost
> certainly without knowing the basis of his determinations.
>
>
>
> LBL
>
>
>
> From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>> On Behalf Of
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
> Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 5:34 PM
> To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: [AusRace] Par times
>
>
>
>
> <https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275>
>
>
>
> Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
>
>
>
>
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> Message: 4
> Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 18:58:56 +0800
> From: "Tony Moffat" <tonymoffat at bigpond.com
> <mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com>>
> To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times
> Message-ID: <000001d406f3$5b558d60$1200a820$@bigpond.com
> <http://bigpond.com>>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
>
> Saintly ? I don?t know if the other mail made it through ?
> it was big
>
> Is this the type of info you need?
>
> Who does this?
>
> Cheers
>
> Tony
>
>
>
> Ball a rat
>
> 900 (firm) 51.8
>
> 900 (good) 52.5
>
> 900 (soft) 53.4
>
> 900 (heavy) 54.6
>
> 1000 (firm) 56.5
>
> 1000 (good) 57.9
>
> 1000 (soft) 59.1
>
> 1000 (heavy) 1.0.7
>
> 1100 (firm) 1.2.4
>
> 1100 (good) 1.3.9
>
> 1100 (soft) 1.5.7
>
> 1100 (heavy) 1.7.3
>
> 1200 (firm) 1.9.1
>
> 1200 (good) 1.10.3
>
> 1200 (soft) 1.12.0
>
> 1200 (heavy) 1.13.1
>
> 1400 (firm) 1.23.2
>
> 1400 (good) 1.24.5
>
> 1400 (soft) 1.26.3
>
> 1400 (heavy) 1.28.2
>
> 1500 (firm) 1.31.3
>
> 1500 (good) 1.32.6
>
> 1500 (soft) 1.34.3
>
> 1500 (heavy) 1.36.5
>
> 1600 (firm) 1.37.1
>
> 1600 (good) 1.37.8
>
> 1600 (soft) 1.40.0
>
> 1600 (heavy) 1.42.5
>
> 2000 (firm) 2.3.8
>
> 2000 (good) 2.6.1
>
> 2000 (soft) 2.7.7
>
> 2000 (heavy) 2.10.9
>
> 2200 (firm) 2.14.8
>
> 2200 (good) 2.17.7
>
> 2200 (soft) 2.20.6
>
> 2200 (heavy) 2.22.4
>
>
>
> From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>] On Behalf Of
> norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
> <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com>
> Sent: Sunday, June 17, 2018 3:34 PM
> To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: [AusRace] Par times
>
>
>
>
> <https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275>
>
>
>
> Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?
>
>
>
>
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