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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Why would you bother trying to do time
for a jumps race?<br>
Would it not be an exercise in futility?<br>
Times are just one factor of zilions, and doubt they would be of
much use in a jumps race.<br>
<br>
In brief....if your standard was perhaps 67.5 for 1200 at
Somewheresville<br>
and your expected class was maybe 99% of your standard<br>
so your class figure in that case is going to be 90.<br>
If they were to run the race in 68.5 then the raw speed will be
~85.4 rather than the expected 90<br>
90-85.4 would have the track running 4.6 slow.<br>
<br>
When you originally figured all the times and classes you would
have normalised then so that zero is neutral(neither fast or slow
track).<br>
Of course that difference does not necessarily mean the track was
that slow....it could have been won by a horse better/worse than
average for that class, or the pace could have had some effect,
or, or or.<br>
But you would have code to try and account for that stuff, and a
meeting is not just one race, so you might have 8 races, and did
the above for all of them and the adjustments for various
extraneous things.<br>
You could find the deviations between expected and actual for the
meeting and the smaller the deviation, then likely the more
accurate.<br>
<br>
Anyway, just assuming for this meet the track was measured as slow
by 4.6<br>
Another day it may be fast by some amount(-ve) and then another,
might tell you it was slow by 30, 40, 50, whatever.<br>
Overall I am confident you get a better picture of the going than
the official.<br>
Against that though, it's only AFTER the races that you know all
this, although you do it as the meet progresses to give you an
idea.<br>
<br>
But at the end of the day, it's just one thing, although those
that do the statistical models and have numbers that are done as
well as possible, usually have the time stuff as the most
predictive of all form factors.<br>
I can't vouch for that, as I don't do the modelling, but that's
what they tell me.<br>
SteveB<br>
<br>
On 20/06/2018 12:27 PM, Race Stats wrote:<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Hi
Steve,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">I
know you’re the time guru, but your post has me scratching
my head.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">How
will your standards tell you the going, when it might be a
number of Group 1 and Maiden races?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Or
in Melbourne most Group 1 races are run in Spring when the
tracks are better going, and Open races are run all year
round.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Then
there’s 3200m hurdles and steeples etc, obviously the time
is going to be quite different to all flat races over 3200m,
so the hurdles and steeples will seem Heavy 10 and the flat
races will seem Firm 2…..just putting it out there, as
that’s just an example of how deriving track condition from
time is error prone.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Lindsay.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style="border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF
1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext"
lang="EN-US">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext"
lang="EN-US"> Racing [<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Steve<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 20 June 2018 9:20 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18,
Issue 3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">No you don't need a time for each going.<br>
If you dissected the times that Tony put up as an example,
you would see that they are all over the place relatively.<br>
Most people that do it that way get, the same
inconsistencies,<br>
And remember that word....relatively.....as it's the most
important thing to consider when doing time<br>
One time for each distance at each track is all you need.<br>
That way your standards will tell you the going, probably
more accurately than the official which is after all just an
opinion of whoever is doing whichever track.<br>
<br>
Good luck though as there is so many inaccurate times, wrong
distances, and three zillion ways of giving the section
times.<br>
<br>
SteveB<br>
<br>
On 19/06/2018 11:41 PM, Race Stats wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Hi
Nick,</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Regarding
Len’s suggestions regarding par times, I thought I’d give
you a little bit of extra information.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Par
times by themselves are pretty nebulous as Len suggests.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">If
you’re familiar with Excel, here is my recommendation.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Often
you will find that track record times are often on many
races one day at a venue, so obviously the track is faster
than the rating.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Forget
Class records, they mean very little overall.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Take
the race times and dissect them into overall time, final
sectional time and then race time minus sectional time,
this will give you the pace time.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">You
MUST have a par time for every going condition not just
Soft, you need Soft5, Soft6, Soft7.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Look
at the top horses that won with fast race time, then fast
last sectional, then pace time.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">You’ll
soon see the impact of what is useful and what is not.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">You’ll
also see where the track rating is obviously wrong when
all or most races are above that par.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Course
manager must lodge the track going prior to 6.50am on race
day, they cannot change the track rating for the day after
that period, only the Stewards or Jockeys can suggest to
Stewards a change in track rating. Ergo, there are many
ratings that are not correct.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Lindsay.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""
lang="EN-US">From:</span></b><span
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""
lang="EN-US"> Racing [<a
href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b><a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, 18 June 2018 9:33 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue
3</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><img id="_x0000_i1025"
src="https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/9657c34d5b2928e9bab33187cf9885d7e3b5e49d.png?u=1035275"
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<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ok thanks Len. Not sure if I'm au fait
enough with the concept to come up with anything so
sophisticated as an algorithm. If I do, you'll be my first
port of call. <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Did fiddle around with ideas by Gavin
Haynes a few year's ago but his stats must be outdated
by now. <o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">For some reason all the replies have
come through aggregated which makes replying damned
confusing. <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>
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<o:p></o:p></p>
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<span style="font-size:1.0pt">18/06/18,
21:27:22</span> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 9:26 PM <a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">
norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a> <<a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">G'day Mike,<o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"> Thanks for the
suggestion. I got that email too but had forgotten
all about it. Must be an age thing.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><br>
<br>
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<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
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<span style="font-size:1.0pt">18/06/18,
21:24:56</span> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 8:59 PM
<<a href="mailto:racing-request@ausrace.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">racing-request@ausrace.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web,
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or, via email, send a message with subject or body
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When replying, please edit your Subject line so it
is more specific<br>
than "Re: Contents of Racing digest..."<br>
<br>
<br>
Today's Topics:<br>
<br>
1. Par times (<a
href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>)<br>
2. Re: Par times (<a
href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a>)<br>
3. Re: Par times (L.B.Loveday)<br>
4. Re: Par times (Tony Moffat)<br>
<br>
<br>
----------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>
Message: 1<br>
Date: Sun, 17 Jun 2018 17:34:08 +1000<br>
From: "<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>"
<<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>><br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID:<br>
<CAJfP4b2LkbzL_iqGSn9K+zgy6mwLw1POCwgUSY+pfzH2=<a
href="mailto:rSqgg@mail.gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">rSqgg@mail.gmail.com</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust
courses?<br>
<br>
<br>
[image: Mailtrack]<br>
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17/06/18,<br>
17:33:07<br>
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------------------------------<br>
<br>
Message: 2<br>
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:03:10 +1000<br>
From: <<a href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a>><br>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID: <001f01d406a0$20e59d80$62b0d880$@<a
href="http://tpg.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">tpg.com.au</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
<br>
Norsaint<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Neale Yardley recently made the following comment in
an email?.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
?Again my thanks go to Steven Angelides from PPFA
for providing the par times. Steven is back in
Australia from Hong Kong and is touring Australia if
anyone would like to catch up with him (he is happy
to talk about Bet Selector, PPFA, Hong Kong or
anything else racing related). Venues and dates are
listed below but please note Steven has a new mobile
number which is 0413164550. His email is still the
same viz <mailto:<a
href="mailto:stavros@wn.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">stavros@wn.com.au</a>>
<a href="mailto:stavros@wn.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">stavros@wn.com.au</a>?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Might be worth your while asking Steven?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Mike.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing <<a
href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>>
On Behalf Of
<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br>
Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 17:34<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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<br>
<br>
<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust
courses? <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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href="https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&"
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Mailtrack 17/06/18, 17:33:07
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<br>
<br>
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Message: 3<br>
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:49:07 +1000<br>
From: "L.B.Loveday" <<a
href="mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">lloveday@ozemail.com.au</a>><br>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID: <004701d406a6$8ec2dce0$ac4896a0$@<a
href="http://ozemail.com.au" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">ozemail.com.au</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
<br>
Nick,<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
"Par times" is, to me, a nebulous term - they can be
calculated in various ways, times are affected by
track condition (not only on the day, but by
permanent upgrades such as at Gawler), rail
positioning, wind direction, riding tactics, in-race
mishaps such as a fall, the class of horses, whether
there are zero, one, two? "natural" leaders and
whether they vie for the lead, weight conditions??<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
So I never consider them, but I do have a database
of every Australian race for the past 20+ years,
including:<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Date,<br>
<br>
Course,<br>
<br>
Distance,<br>
<br>
Class,<br>
<br>
Limit Weight,<br>
<br>
Weight carried by placegetters,<br>
<br>
Condition,<br>
<br>
No of starters,<br>
<br>
Prizemoney,<br>
<br>
and of course Time<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
You determine an algorithm for calculating par times
and I'll write a program and send you the results;
otherwise you are just relying on someone else's
methodology, almost certainly without knowing the
basis of his determinations.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
LBL<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing <<a
href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>>
On Behalf Of
<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br>
Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 5:34 PM<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a
href="https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275</a>>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust
courses? <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a
href="https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&</a>>
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Mailtrack 17/06/18, 17:33:07
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------------------------------<br>
<br>
Message: 4<br>
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 18:58:56 +0800<br>
From: "Tony Moffat" <<a
href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">tonymoffat@bigpond.com</a>><br>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID: <000001d406f3$5b558d60$1200a820$@<a
href="http://bigpond.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">bigpond.com</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
<br>
Saintly ? I don?t know if the other mail made it
through ? it was big<br>
<br>
Is this the type of info you need?<br>
<br>
Who does this?<br>
<br>
Cheers<br>
<br>
Tony<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Ball a rat<br>
<br>
900 (firm) 51.8<br>
<br>
900 (good) 52.5<br>
<br>
900 (soft) 53.4<br>
<br>
900 (heavy) 54.6<br>
<br>
1000 (firm) 56.5<br>
<br>
1000 (good) 57.9<br>
<br>
1000 (soft) 59.1<br>
<br>
1000 (heavy) 1.0.7<br>
<br>
1100 (firm) 1.2.4<br>
<br>
1100 (good) 1.3.9<br>
<br>
1100 (soft) 1.5.7<br>
<br>
1100 (heavy) 1.7.3<br>
<br>
1200 (firm) 1.9.1<br>
<br>
1200 (good) 1.10.3<br>
<br>
1200 (soft) 1.12.0<br>
<br>
1200 (heavy) 1.13.1<br>
<br>
1400 (firm) 1.23.2<br>
<br>
1400 (good) 1.24.5<br>
<br>
1400 (soft) 1.26.3<br>
<br>
1400 (heavy) 1.28.2<br>
<br>
1500 (firm) 1.31.3<br>
<br>
1500 (good) 1.32.6<br>
<br>
1500 (soft) 1.34.3<br>
<br>
1500 (heavy) 1.36.5<br>
<br>
1600 (firm) 1.37.1<br>
<br>
1600 (good) 1.37.8<br>
<br>
1600 (soft) 1.40.0<br>
<br>
1600 (heavy) 1.42.5<br>
<br>
2000 (firm) 2.3.8<br>
<br>
2000 (good) 2.6.1<br>
<br>
2000 (soft) 2.7.7<br>
<br>
2000 (heavy) 2.10.9<br>
<br>
2200 (firm) 2.14.8<br>
<br>
2200 (good) 2.17.7<br>
<br>
2200 (soft) 2.20.6<br>
<br>
2200 (heavy) 2.22.4<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing [mailto:<a
href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>]
On Behalf Of
<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br>
Sent: Sunday, June 17, 2018 3:34 PM<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a
href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a
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<br>
<br>
<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust
courses? <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a
href="https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&</a>>
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Mailtrack 17/06/18, 17:33:07
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