[AusRace] They never let up re crops, do they?

Fri Dec 7 07:41:50 AEDT 2018

I wish he's not made it! At that time I was pretty well "rating to lead, backing to win". That was really KISS.

It's of course rather more complicated nowadays - as indicated by this comment from the other Nick (Aubrey) 3 years ago:

Hi Len,

I can thank you for some insight you gave me some time ago on a "simple way" of estimating the Position At Turn. Its remarkably accurate but often of little value unless considered in conjunction with the other race runners.

Cheers,

AN

From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com> On Behalf Of norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
Sent: Thursday, 6 December 2018 1:34 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Cc: PhilM <punter at internode.on.net>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] They never let up re crops, do they?

Wish I'd seen the Bart quote. Always found him hard to catch but when leader bias became a factor, you could almost rule his out. Catelan Opening would have won a Newmarket, and there were others, who were cruelled by dynamite rails on big days. The old "Ron King" specials.

On 6 Dec. 2018 7:22 am, "L.B.Loveday" <lloveday at ozemail.com.au <mailto:lloveday at ozemail.com.au> > wrote:

Phil,

" following the Manuel bros..". I remember a particular occasion when Michael Webster played his "game" at Balaklava - JManuel started his run around the ring with a bet with Webster, many eyes watching, Webster drastically turned down a price, some owners of the eyes (not you I hope) rushed to bet that horse with other bookies while Manuel continued around the ring backing his horse, which was not the one Webster wound in - that was done to fool the eyes, including those of other bookies.

I used to closely watch the Manuels and other significant players and if they backed a horse I wanted, I'd be one of those rushing to get set with another bookie, but if it was not one I wanted, I'd smile and wait for mine to hopefully drift. So many different tactics, and as the ex-Manager, Premium Customer Services said of the 7 or so in the Randwick HV room, everyone has a different approach, but they can all win. But they would not, could not, all win if they all had the same system, which is why I read Scott carefully and chose to take a different approach.

How easily and quickly things can change was brought home pointedly to me when JBCummings was quoted as saying that racing tactics had changed and horses now much more needed to be leading/on pace (not that his suddenly did). There was an almost "overnight" reflection of that in odds and another edge reduced for me. 

In the Flemington Oaks, 3rd place getter Miner's Miss was predictably massive "unders" on Vic TAB (26.0/5.1) cf BetZero (151/23) and BF (201/18), unusual in a $1million race. Maybe Walter Gor Old ("Sepharial") had something when he wrote in "The Silver Key" of the influence of names - the reason it was predictable is imo much simpler than what he wrote.

LBL

From: PhilM <punter at internode.on.net <mailto:punter at internode.on.net> > 
Sent: Tuesday, 4 December 2018 6:55 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> 
Subject: Re: They never let up re crops, do they?

"You'll remember Bob Robinson, the IBM salesman who had access to and used a computer before they were commonly available, and was so successful he had a crowd following him to copy his bets (you still here Phil?)"

Yes Len, I haven't gone away just yet.... and quite correct, I was one of the most avid followers of "Mr Magic", Shirley and Co. .....to the point he referred to me as "bindi eyes" ;-) Like you, I changed betting strategies over the years many times, from following Robertson, following the Manuel bros; getting massive overs using teletext when interstate TAB's put up approximates, betting trebles and quadrellas for years based on early TAB odds just by comparing paper prices, then Betfair gave me the biggest lift possible in 2001 with some amazing returns in the first few years, flipping from place betting, to taking any overs bookies gave as compared to Betfair, moving from British racing, to Aussie racing as bookies closed down accounts, to correct score and 1st half/2nd half soccer odds for years until TABCorp finally woke up they were giving money away, then back to Aussie racing again. It finally got to the point that the hours worked were not worth the returns gained. I guess I stood still and got run over! I've had one bet in six months, the winner of the Melbourne Cup and have pretty much lost all interest if I can no longer make a decent dollar. Happy on the aged pension now with enough funds to tide me over and a wife that's more than happy as my "carer".

If you are still going well Len, then you've likely outdone every gambler out there! Congratulations!

Phil M

p.s. Sounds as if Bob Robertson (Robinson?) has fallen a long way to be called a "silly old bugger" by some bookie, betting $5 e/w! Seriously?

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