[AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of horses scratched at the barrier

[chiron1 at iinet.net.au]

 Message: 1
 Date: Thu, 12 Oct 2017 10:54:41 +1100
 From: "Rob Waterhouse" 
 To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" 
 Subject: Re: [AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases
of
 horses scratched at the barrier

 The new way of calculating is a source of contention and hated by
on-course bookies and ignored by the betting firms and TABs,
notwithstanding it is intellectually sound..

 This ?new way? is a black box (meaning it?s algorithm is secret)
answers, cleverly, the question: what would a new market look like
after a scratching?

 It has faults. Firstly, people don?t understand it. Secondly, an
eccentric bookmaker who only lays long-priced runners is very
short-changed. Thirdly, it answers the wrong question, which should be
how should the bookmaker be compensated for the loss of field money on
the scratching. Fourthly, through no fault of the ?new way? the
deductions are based on the large-percentage corporate betting market
rather than the razor sharp, low-margin on-course market. Fifthly,
when a horse is being considered to be scratched, it blows with the
corporates, and the deduction isn?t based on the price it was
averagely traded.

 Rob W

	TA: Thanks Rob. Everything you have said above accords with my
experience, including and particularly the reference to it as a
'secret algorithm'. I popped in on the betting steward 

	to ask a question or 2 and the first thing he did was lower the lid
of his notebook to hide the Excel spreadsheet from my prying eyes...
not that I would have had the capacity to remember an

	algorithm even  if it were visible. 

	I don't disagree with the deduction made from my bet, I'd
just wanted to know how it was arrived at, because it differered
significantly from the fixed odds TAB bet deduction. 

	In fact I think the bookie I wagered with was being looked after by
the betting stewards' formula for exactly the reasons you state ...the
bookie would be the epitome of one of 

	the "...razor sharp, low-margin on-course market" framers...

	He took my (place) bet which was at $5.00 place.. even on my crude
knowledge of how the deduction process works I understood it had to
be more than the 8c/in$1 of the win deduction 

	(the scratched horse was $12.00 when scratched) to cover 3 place
payouts at his mediumish-long prices. What was annoying initially was
that the TAB fixed odds service, which I think is 

	provided by William Hill to WATAB, paid the deduction as less 8c/$1
the win and same for the place for all 3 places... On turnover they
can probably offset losses from other bets. The small 

	bookie is vulnerable when the longer/medium priced ones get up if a
few punters jag a result. 

	-------------------------


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