[AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of horses scratched at the barrier

[Rob Waterhouse]

The new way of calculating is a source of contention and hated by on-course bookies and ignored by the betting firms and TABs, notwithstanding it is intellectually sound..

 

This ‘new way’ is a black box (meaning it’s algorithm is secret) answers, cleverly, the question: what would a new market look like after a scratching?

 

It has faults. Firstly, people don’t understand it. Secondly, an eccentric bookmaker who only lays long-priced runners is very short-changed. Thirdly, it answers the wrong question, which should be how should the bookmaker be compensated for the loss of field money on the scratching. Fourthly, through no fault of the ‘new way’ the deductions are based on the large-percentage corporate betting market rather than the razor sharp, low-margin on-course market. Fifthly, when a horse is being considered to be scratched, it blows with the corporates, and the deduction isn’t based on the price it was averagely traded.

 

Rob W

 

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of mikemcb at southcom.com.au
Sent: Thursday, 12 October 2017 8:46 AM
To: chiron1 at iinet.net.au; 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of horses scratched at the barrier

 

Welcome back Tony it has been a long time!

 

Your query sounds like it is perfectly matched to the skills of Nick so we will eagerly await his answer.

 

Keep winning

 

Mike.

 

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of chiron1 at iinet.net.au <mailto:chiron1 at iinet.net.au> 
Sent: Thursday, 12 October 2017 5:36 AM
To: racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> 
Subject: [AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of horses scratched at the barrier

 

Greetings ausracers. Long time no post. Was looking through recent postings 

in the archive a few days ago. Ausrace is still collectively the best pool of knowledge 

on all things racing. Have a question for the mathematically inclined, if anyone can help.

Had a small successful punt at Belmont today which had to be reduced from the 

face value because there was a scratching at the barrier. 

The scratched horse (St Bel) was at approx. $11.5/12.0win  when it was withdrawn 

(shortly before start time). 

 

My bet was with an on-course bookie and had a face value of $100 exactly (place bet). Post race the 

winning horse WITH BOOKIES, was paid out less 8c in $1 for win and less 11c in $1 for place; 

2nd horse was paid less 11c in $1 for place and 3rd horse less 14c in $1 for place.... as said, ONLY 

WITH ON COURSE BOOKIES.

 

Why the variation in rate for the 3rd place? 

 

The TAB fixed odds service which I think is provided by William Hill, paid less 8c win for the winner

and less 8c place for all 3 placegetters. 

 

The fixed odds TAB prices (win and place) were very similar to the on course bookies' market.... literally only 

very small SP variations.  The answer is probably staring me in the face but I can't see why the place deduction 

rate is variable instead of fixed for all 3 place dividends ala the TAB fixed odds figure.

 

The 3 placegetters were (memory) at PLACE ODDS of $2.50, $2.70, $5.00 PRIOR to the scratching.

 

Anyone? 

Regards, Tony 

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