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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>The new way of calculating is a source of contention and hated by on-course bookies and ignored by the betting firms and TABs, notwithstanding it is intellectually sound..<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>This ‘new way’ is a black box (meaning it’s algorithm is secret) answers, cleverly, the question: what would a new market look like after a scratching?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>It has faults. Firstly, people don’t understand it. Secondly, an eccentric bookmaker who only lays long-priced runners is very short-changed. Thirdly, it answers the wrong question, which should be how should the bookmaker be compensated for the loss of field money on the scratching. Fourthly, through no fault of the ‘new way’ the deductions are based on the large-percentage corporate betting market rather than the razor sharp, low-margin on-course market. Fifthly, when a horse is being considered to be scratched, it blows with the corporates, and the deduction isn’t based on the price it was averagely traded.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Rob W<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><a name="_MailEndCompose"><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></a></p><span style='mso-bookmark:_MailEndCompose'></span><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>mikemcb@southcom.com.au<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, 12 October 2017 8:46 AM<br><b>To:</b> chiron1@iinet.net.au; 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of horses scratched at the barrier<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Welcome back Tony it has been a long time!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Your query sounds like it is perfectly matched to the skills of Nick so we will eagerly await his answer.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Keep winning<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Mike.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US> Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b><a href="mailto:chiron1@iinet.net.au">chiron1@iinet.net.au</a><br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, 12 October 2017 5:36 AM<br><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a><br><b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of horses scratched at the barrier<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Greetings ausracers. Long time no post. Was looking through recent postings </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>in the archive a few days ago. Ausrace is still collectively the best pool of knowledge </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>on all things racing. Have a question for the mathematically inclined, if anyone can help.</span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Had a small successful punt at Belmont today which had to be reduced from the </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>face value because there was a scratching at the barrier. </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>The scratched horse (St Bel) was at approx. $11.5/12.0win when it was withdrawn </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>(shortly before start time). </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>My bet was with an on-course bookie and had a face value of $100 exactly (place bet). Post race the </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>winning horse WITH BOOKIES, was paid out less 8c in $1 for win and less 11c in $1 for place; </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>2nd horse was paid less 11c in $1 for place and 3rd horse less 14c in $1 for place.... as said, ONLY </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>WITH ON COURSE BOOKIES.</span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Why the variation in rate for the 3rd place? </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>The TAB fixed odds service which I think is provided by William Hill, paid less 8c win for the winner</span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>and less 8c place for all 3 placegetters. </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>The fixed odds TAB prices (win and place) were very similar to the on course bookies' market.... literally only </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>very small SP variations. The answer is probably staring me in the face but I can't see why the place deduction </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>rate is variable instead of fixed for all 3 place dividends ala the TAB fixed odds figure.</span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>The 3 placegetters were (memory) at PLACE ODDS of $2.50, $2.70, $5.00 PRIOR to the scratching.</span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Anyone? </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Regards, Tony </span><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></body></html>