[AusRace] Jockey Rating

[L.B.Loveday]

Saw this in Ausrace Archives:

 

 

Hi,

 

I am using a set of jockey ratings that have been calculated over a 12 mnth
history.

Naturally there are potentially some inaccuracies with jockeys currently out
of form or others recently improved and not commanding a high rating.

My question is has anyone ever done any analysis to determine the optimum
period over which to calculate the rating and how often to update it ?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

Peter

 

The " optimum period over which to calculate the rating" is something that I
have never heard a definitive answer to, because there is not, imo, one.
I've tested various periods of time, various number of rides, which to be
disregarded as "outliers" .. and have never satisfied myself as to "the
optimum"; maybe I'm just a hard taskmaster.

 

But " how often to update it" is easy - ideally after every race, if
impractical, then as often as possible. When ConK fielded, he used to keep
horses ridden by a jockey who rode the last winner short. I've not seen
published research into the Impact Value of such jockeys (I've done it, "of
course")  but there has been published research in other sports, such as
basketballers who missed/got their last penalty shot. Without doing the
research, or even knowing much about basketball, common sense tells me that
someone who goaled last shot has a better chance next time than if he missed
(referring to particular players, not lumping them all together when there
are varying levels of ability to be considered) - pot a hard shot, walk
tall, confidence up; miss a gimmee, head down, shoulders sagging, confidence
shot (OK, a bit of an exaggeration, but the point is, I hope, taken).

 

I've seen it at football - take a screamer, kick a 60m goal, and you're 7'
tall, while your opponent shrinks; miss a sitter from 15m and you feel 5'
short, and in either case play accordingly. Why would it not be the same
with a jockey who has just ridden a well-judged ride to land a winner
compared to after he's ridden a stinker? Of course people are different, but
that can be taken into some account by analysing individual jockeys.

 

To today's Bookmaker Joke - I backed MV 1/2 at 71.0 for MBL max with
Centrebet "Take Us On", they treated me with deserved lack of respect and
wind it to 126.0, but wouldn't take any more from me. Is there some sense to
that MO that I'm missing?

 

LBL

 

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