[AusRace] MC betting

Wed Nov 8 13:25:49 AEDT 2017

Sean,

You obviously remember the true sexists on this list labelling me a misogynist for pointing out that she was by objective measures certainly not a great rider, arguably not even an average one. "Anomaly Nick" and I, the only two on the list who have reported their own ratings, both had her below average prior to the MC. That win made no difference to my ratings as I ignore long-price winners as outliers; Nick I don't know. 

Water off a duck's back - people of the same ilk on this list called me a racist for calling Obama evil, based not on his being half-white, but on his being the only member of the Illinois legislature to vote against requiring doctors to provide medical care for a child, living independently of its mother but the result of a botched abortion (prior to the legislation they were placed in a room to die an agonising death, gasping for breath, needing a feed, and a comforting cuddle, as they are in Darwin).

To my programs, jockeys are just another input, and don't consider sex, indeed I didn't know in most cases who were females until I decided to analyse FvsM performances. So I asked someone to identify F jockeys and spent some time looking at recent riders on DynamicOdds web-site - but that's only a partial guide; I'm looking at the first today, and see Chris Nicoll on #5, and have no idea whether that F or M. Next race, Ashley Doyle on #5, ditto…. 

Anyway I came up with a list of female jockeys that all-but certainly missed some, but all-but certainly only contained Fs.  

I then analysed them using TRB ratings, and there was a significant AVERAGE drop off in rating when a F jockey replaced a non-F jockey who had ridden the horse last start, and a significant bounce on average in rating when a non-F jockey replaced a F jockey who had ridden the horse last start. I tested for various days between runs, down to 14 or less to get a more homogeneous group, and the results were always similar. Pretty conclusive? Not necessarily so according to the very astute Ausracer with whom I shared the results and who gave sensible possibilities for the results not necessarily being down to ability, while not claiming they were not. I'll leave you to ponder what those possibilities are.

I seldom watch races, and not only is my knowledge below that of most front-bar bettors, it proved yesterday below that of my mother whose last bet was 1/11/2016 when she asked me what my selection was and I replied #24, "That's Gai, isn't it, and that Berry boy", she said. "No idea" - I take no more personal notice of trainers than I do of jockeys. But I like what Gai once said - she's rather be known as a good trainer than a great female trainer. 

You may remember that another astute observer who does watch races told me that MichelPayne, prior to the MC diatribe, was given an easy run by "the boys" - heck if she smiled at me and wiggled her taunt arse, I'd let her off the fence at the right time too.

Whether he's right or wrong, these post-MC figures are not:

They have improved since I last looked - courtesy of 3 good-priced winners in her last 24 rides, but are still abysmal.

Rides, 334

Wins 28 (8.4%), which may be good, bad or indifferent depending on the horses, so a better guide is return at level stake SP:

SP return 49.2%, way below average, which still may not be too bad if she were riding long-shots, due to the long-shot effect - the longer the odds, the more negative the expected value of your bet. 

So, here's the cruncher, at my 100% market which properly adjusts for the long-shot effect:

100% market return 59.5% (average is of course 100%), which puts her in the 1st Decile. But still the sexists go pat, pat, good girlie, what a good jockey. Meanwhile those of us who go by results, not sex, have had a bonanza betting against her. Until the past 24 rides.

LBL

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of sean mclaren
Sent: Tuesday, 7 November 2017 1:27 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] MC betting

I'm disappointed that Michelle hasn't gotta a ride😢. Lol

On 6 Nov 2017 6:19 pm, "L.B.Loveday" <lloveday at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

Being the MC tomorrow, I thought I should have a bet on the obvious expected leader, #24.

Big International Bookmaker William Hill offered 26.00 (don't be fooled by the 61.00  - that's only available to expected losers).

Centrebet, "Take Us On" would take $8 @ 71.00. Boy, that's really letting us on!

BetZero, living up to their name, would take $0.00 at 51.00. $0.00 says it all.

Australia's self proclaimed biggest bookmaker, Sportsbet, does better, willing to take $80 @ 51.00. A solid bet on a maiden at Sunshine Coast tomorrow, but this is the MC, analysed "to death" by all and sundry, disclosed form, mature market, you are way below top odds, yet you will only stand a tired old man for $4k at the lowest odds on offer (well other than WH's 26.00)!

Next try, TopSport who took the request 150ew @ 61.00/16.00 

Can't report on the others as that was all I wanted.

The corporates are by and large a disgrace and bring discredit to racing. But I've got praise for one that I'll post anon - got to look up exact wording first.

LBL

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