[AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Robert Ford
kernow.fords at ntlworld.com
Sat May 20 02:26:11 AEST 2017
Hi Tony,
The first equation breaks down to M x D when speed is replaces by D/T.
Energy expended is not mass x distance.
The second equation is correct for KE but that is the energy of a body mass
M moving at a constant velocity V.
(like an imaginary train running on rails in a vacuum i.e. no energy losses,
100% efficiency).
KE increases linearly with the mass M - so if the body mass increase by 30Kg
the KE rises proportionately.
Racing results are often a matter of inches, and that increase alone can
certainly make a difference to the result.
A horse does not move at a constant velocity.
It is nowhere near a 100% efficient machine.
A horse spends far more energy each stride in moving its legs, neck and head
and raising its body and the jockey each stride,
Uses energy to pump blood from its heart and to expand its lungs, replaces
energy lost as hooves impact the ground and slip, expends energy against
gradients, curves and air resistance.
A horse does not produce energy at a constant rate - it builds up during the
race then falters at the finish.
A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight.
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20%
increase in body weight.
A variation of 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres is clearly wrong.
Unless you take all the factors into account, you get the wrong answers.
Robert
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 19 May 2017 16:50
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise that
weight, time and distance are linked.
The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where E = energy,
mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed = speed in
metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in junior
high school.
Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed
From these he showed that the horse weight, the several hundreds of
kilograms, was inconsequential by any comparison.
Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg
horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97) slowed these by a value of .19
lengths, as a demonstration.
By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600 kg the
variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.
Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also, and you can use the
calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or lengths.
This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified using
the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has been
confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and what that
true magnitude is
This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed
Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are
examined.
I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the text in
his book to quote that which I have written. Thank you Mr Biggs.
The book was written/published in 1998.
Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping My Way,
written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this also.
Cheers
Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist Off the scene for a few
days now
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Hi Tony,
There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself with
inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy production,
lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.
What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.
I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse is
recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time
differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths really
for flat racing).
In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the last two
furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what happened the
earlier stages.
Best wishes,
Robert
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all interest me
(and others I would hope)
Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument, and
with that also the wind resistance and almost everything associated with the
horse running as it did.
See Handicapping for 21 Century
I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but realise
that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish at the
600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now linked in form
here so it is meaningful.
It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at the
moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.
Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.
I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a standard
value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived from the product
of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or bettering it
should be considered.
In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method) -all
runners have the same value and you can correct that For each runner using
finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was
dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been
corrected.
The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different distances
run by this runner and having to correct it to todays distance.
It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance
divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may ramp
up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.
Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten
distance.
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same amendment
can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the first part of the
equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over many races, that it will
still leave your good horse in contention, although ranked elsewhere, so a
second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
Cheers
Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Tony,
Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is invaluable to
calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.
Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals, horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that section (you
now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and drafting. You can
observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.
Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the practical
details and that available energy is not produced evenly.
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that horse
differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels rise.
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it does not
happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle also.
I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing what
things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you cut
out 90% of racing.
Best wishes,
Robert
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian circuit
is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly does
here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that determined
or calculated, or is it from time+distance?
I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It describes a
scientific study of competitive running and develops a mathematical model
which balances the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources
with the energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and
overcome air resistance.
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between distance,
time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be evaluated.
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily adapted
to racing on other surfaces and tracks.
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to assess
performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on race
time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings) and
form ratings.
This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems".
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the development
of the model.
The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end of the
book.
However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."
Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on sight.
I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set race
where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race and
their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in the
village that these horses would run well, they did too.
I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead up
runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top raters.
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.
Cheers
Tony
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Lindsay,
The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between
races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a
lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage
arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge,
which can make a fool of the long odds based on apparent "form" when the
"unfancied" horse races next.
Robert
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Hi Tony,
"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in
the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."
Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so
the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at
a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.
"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap
race weight and wear a coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the
finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."
The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many
horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a
difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if
they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every
other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are
minimal.
Lindsay
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