[AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Sat May 20 01:50:06 AEST 2017

Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise
that weight, time and distance are linked.

The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where
E = energy, mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed =
speed in metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in
junior high school.

Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed 

 From these he showed that the horse weight,
the several hundreds of kilograms, was inconsequential by any
comparison.

Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg
horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97)
slowed these by a value of .19 lengths, as a demonstration. 

By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600
kg
the variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.

Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also,  and you can use the
calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or
lengths.

This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified
using the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has
been
confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and what
that true magnitude is

This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed
Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are
examined.

I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the
text in his book to quote that which I  have written. Thank you Mr
Biggs. 

The book was written/published in 1998.

Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping
My Way, written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this
also.

Cheers

Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist 
Off the scene for a few days now

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself
with inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and
cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy
production, lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.

What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.

I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse
is recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time
differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths
really for flat racing).

In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last
furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the
last two furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what
happened the earlier stages.

Best wishes,
Robert

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The
horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all
interest me (and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument,
and with that also the wind resistance and almost everything
associated with the horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but
realise that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish
at the 600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now
linked in form here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at
the moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a
standard value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived
from the product of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or
bettering it should be considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method)
-all runners have the same value and you can correct that For each
runner using finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was
dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been
corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different
distances run by this runner and having to correct it to todays
distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance
divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may
ramp up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths
per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten
distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same
amendment can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the
first part of the equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over
many races, that it will still leave your good horse in contention,
although ranked elsewhere, so a second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,

Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is
invaluable to calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals,
horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that
section (you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and
drafting. You can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the
practical details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that
horse differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels
rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it
does not happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle
also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing
what things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you
cut out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian
circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly
does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made
available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that
determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It
describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a
mathematical model which balances  the energy supply from both
anaerobic and aerobic sources with the energy required to accelerate
the body, sustain running, and overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between
distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be
evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily
adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to
assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on
race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings)
and form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the
development of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end
of the book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on
sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set
race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race
and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as
favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in
the village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead
up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top
raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production
between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next
with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further
advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that
knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent
"form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.

Robert

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race
Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than
in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most
races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally
run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type
races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting
that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the
handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the
crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so
many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly
makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first
if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to
every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences
are minimal.
Lindsay

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