[AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

[Tony Moffat]

The value 2.75 metres for each horse is suggested in order to get
started on the problem of what to do with times. I was interested in
using the value as the time, overall and sectional, is an inclusion in
form guides and I think that using that data may point us towards a
winner, or loser more often.

Fast horses win races is the conclusion you most often hear. However,
that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in the
final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need. Other form providers
may give you all the data for every metre of the running, I was just
using what was available for free for the time being. In this
instance, this month, I have used Racerate form guides.

I subscribe to a csv feed also although the 600 m time has been
replaced with a shorter distance time. The data supplier says that the
horse times are calculated from the winning horse time, it's lengths
per second times is used to calculate the following runner scores, as
lengths from the winner. As quick as I release the enter key the data
arrives and is calculated, for shorter distance though, not 600 m. I
used the 600m time so that readers could associate with that more
readily.

 The horse timers, an electronic device, is in the saddle cloth, so
half down the length of the horse. 

Nothing is precise in this game nor is it imprecise to generalise,
that's why they have odds. 

Perhaps the provision of the winning or losing lengths should be left
as metres, it's actually more functional but not a value that race
goers, punters even, can associate to. 
I find it interesting that race goers still talk in miles but have
universally stopped referring to furlongs and at least are talking in
kilograms because pounds avoirdupois is foreign, or at least old
school, to them. 

Often horses win a race from a pattern, fast start, mid race cruise,
moderate finish but strong, and then it is not ridden that way for 3-4
runs, almost certainly because of the jockey. This scoring of lengths
per second may highlight this pattern. Then if a positive jockey
switch occurs is it then time to plonk the hard earned down.

In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting
that is. They are just a requirement within the rules of racing,
provide the handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull
faces at the crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose.


I mentioned the calculation of mid race speed, that portion of the run
from the start to the point where the final 600 metres commences and
found that interesting. 
There is an upcoming treatise, well typewriting then, on time and
weight and time and distance whereby certain matters are examined. For
the time being I use the standard(mine), race distance divided by
16.25 to give me the standard(mine) of 6 lengths per second for any
distance and work or compare the runners mark or score with that. It
appears to cross over at about 1400 metres where a readily achievable
rate, lengths per second, is obtained, the whole race time 86.15
seconds, then becomes increasingly unattainable as distance increases.
The 96. barrier at 1600 metres proves elusive and tactics enter into
calculations, fast early, fast late and has your horse demonstrated
that?.
I don't use time in deciding my selections, this is just an interest
at the present time.
 Cheers

Tony


>From an earlier book
7-1 OLE AND THE BACKLINE SAGA++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 Next job was with a cattle shipping company. 
Their buyers would organise for truckloads of cattle to be bought to
the yards at the railway station were they would be sorted, drafted
and sent on their way. Some to butchers, some to a company property in
north east NSW and another in central Queensland. It was dusty fun and
required you to be able to count past 20, a challenge.

One day I was tasked to muster and load these cattle from a property.
There was just me initially to muster and push the cattle up into the
yards. 

Did I mention these were rodeo bulls?

 Well, I found this out later but the company car I was using, yes,
car, took upon itself to stop and not re start mid paddock behind the
sizeable rumps of angry bulls.

 I left the vehicle, and after determining it was an electrical fault
which required a new battery, I commenced to walk through the mob
towards the yards, the road and salvation. It was not to be.

 The bullock bullies turned on me and there was a period of side
steps, back and sideways avoidances, and I used a technique told to me
which is to slap and punch the side of the bulls and make a noise so
that they are intimidated and stop, although it is more because they
are diverted and confused, said a leather faced old stockman later.

 Some of those bulls were more tenderised by me than intimidated or
confused, the technique does not work and later, when the opportunity
to run at Pamplona arose I declined, citing the fact that I did not
have the uniform.

 Next, and only then, I begin a running for one's life towards the
fence.

 I was once a front row forward but now felt I had the fleet of foot
of an outside centre, all that was missing was the purse and the hair
style, but I made it. 

The noise, you know the roars the T Rex has in Jurassic Park 1-7 well
a couple of those bully boys did that.

 So, next night I go to footy training, I'm telling the coach what
happened, he is laughing like you wouldn't believe, so much so that
everybody stops, and I have to retell. They are all laughing now and
then I mention I want to be considered for the position of outside
centre, and there was pandemonium, seriously, a little bit insensitive
really, especially for a prospective backline player now.

 Back to the bulls. I am sitting on the fence, they are roaring at me,
and I feel like a smoke, smokes are in the car. So, I get off the
fence and walk into the yard and towards the paddock gate at the end
or start of the lane. 

First one then 5 or so of those cow boys see me and start running
towards me, into the laneway and towards the yard. This might work I
think. I stand there for an eternity, then when the male cows are near
me I spring onto, up and over the fence, run into the paddock and
close the gate into the laneway.

 Job done I reckon.

 I then realise I have company. Two staff employed by the truck owner
have arrived and have witnessed what just occurred. One said 'Ole'
which was probably appropriate. 

We use their vehicle to start my vehicle, I get my smoke and a drink,
we load the cattle and I trust they were good eating wherever they
went. The meat tenderness started with me. 

One of the men who loaded the cattle was a rodeo rider, it's a part
time occupation I guess, you spend a lot of time in free fall too, and
he spoke with an American accent. He was from Hay, y'all. 
He had never been to the US of A but just felt comfortable talking
like a cowboy.

 I have noticed this American accent thing several times and it often
occurs in music also. What a culture vulture I am.




---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com