[AusRace] Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
Nick at Twonix
nick.aubrey at twonix.com
Thu Mar 30 08:23:27 AEDT 2017
Thanks Paul. Yes you are right about 33% fav strike rate. I have now added
strike rate and betting analysis for Fav, Top2, Top3, Top4 , Top5 and Top6 .
But interesting how these stats change with track condition.
I will publish this with my update next Sunday.
Cheers,
AN
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Paul
Sent: Wednesday, 29 March 2017 8:38 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
G'day Nick
Thanks for that - interesting figures
I can't remember what years the book was about but the number that always
stood out in my mind was that only 10% of 3rd favourites won. Based on the
numbers I've just checked for 15, 16 and 17ytd in your data it's up over 13%
each year which lines up more with where it should be. There goes the plan
of laying all 3rd favs to make money lol
I find it fascinating that despite having so much more information these
days and computers to churn through the numbers favs still win around 33% of
races year in year out - although they are up a little more so far in 2017
i'd be surprised if it doesn't even out once again. Interestingly if you
backed every favourite using your best price figure you would've made a
small profit each year.
Overall, fascinating figures Nick - thanks very much for giving us access to
them
Paul
On 03/29/2017 06:46 AM, Nick at Twonix wrote:
Hi Paul,
Unfortunately 30k record export is a current Microsoft Power BI limitation.
However it can be overcome by dividing your export into 30 k chunks by using
the slicers. E.g. export by year .
I have added a column called "Odds Rank" plus a measure called Top5 which
shows the % of winners in the top5 of the market.
Enjoy,
AN
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Paul
Sent: Monday, 27 March 2017 3:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>
<racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
G'day Nick
Had a little look this afternoon and think it's kind of interesting.
Couple of things. Is the export limited to 30,000 records or is that just a
limitation at my end?
I was hoping to be able to check how some stats were holding up from a book
i had years ago around the first 5 in the market but your data doesn't seem
to have that? Well not without a bit more work anyway
Overall though, if anyone is big on stats they should have a look
Cheers
Paul
Sent from my Samsung GALAXY S5 on the Telstra Mobile Network
-------- Original message --------
From: Nick at Twonix <nick.aubrey at twonix.com <mailto:nick.aubrey at twonix.com>
>
Date: 26/03/2017 08:33 (GMT+10:00)
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
Hi All,
Still very slow on Ausrace . have not received a new post in over 2 weeks so
I thought I'd send one .
I have added TRACK CONDITION to the FLB query so you can now see how FLB
results change according to various track conditions. The results astounded
me. Especially useful with more heavy tracks forecast in Sydney for the
Championships. If you are interest just click on Is
<http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/2017/03/is-favourite-longshot-bias-dead/>
Favourite-Longshot Bias Dead and follow the prompts. It's all FREE !
I have now uploaded race results from yesterday (Saturday 25th Match) plus I
have extended the results back to the start of 2013. That's now OVER A
MILLION horse race records that can be queried in the twinkling of an eye. I
tell you what . Microsoft's Power BI application is a game changer for ANY
business . not just Horse Racing.
Enjoy,
AN
From: Nick at Twonix [mailto:nick.aubrey at twonix.com]
Sent: Sunday, 12 March 2017 11:41 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
Hi All,
Just to let you know that I'm now updating the EPI race results on a weekly
basis so that yesterday's Saturday races (11 March 2017) are there now.
Also for those that are interested I have just posed the question on my
website . is
<http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/2017/03/is-favourite-longshot-bias-dead/>
Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
Cheers,
AN
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Nick at Twonix
Sent: Saturday, 4 March 2017 8:18 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Access FREE race results ... and much more
Just to let everyone know that there is no software required to browse and
export the results available in EPI. All you need is a web browser.
Using EPI stats I have just made a post looking at Michelle Payne's
performance over the last 14 months. Interested to hear what Len thinks.
http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/2017/03/michelle-payne-the-good-the-bad-and-
the-ugly/
Cheers,
AN
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Nick at Twonix
Sent: Friday, 3 March 2017 6:55 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: [AusRace] Access FREE race results ... and much more
Hi All,
It looks like the Ausrace email list has run its course but thought I'd do
one last post to let you know about a new racing project of mine . see
below.
Cheers,
AN
----------------------------------------------------------
What started as a request from an Ausrace
<http://www.ausrace.com/mailing-list/ausrace-archives/> member to access
Australian race results has now expanded into far more than what I thought
was possible to deliver via the internet.
What does Extreme Punter Intelligence (E.P.I.) provide ?
* You can get results of all Australasian races run since January
2016 ... more than 233,000 horse race runs covering over 23,000 races ...
involving 38,000 horses.
* You can select results for a particular group of races ... or all
runs for a specific horse .. or all rides for a particular jockey ... or any
jockey / trainer combination.
* You can compare the performance of an infinite number of system
scenarios by using measures such as Strike Rate and the powerful A2E
statistic.
* You can export the results of any query into a CSV file.
And due to the power of Microsoft's hosting of their Power BI application
online (it's the BEST thing that Microsoft have ever done) a typical E.P.I
query only takes a few seconds ... amazing when you consider there are over
235,000 race result records !
To access E.P.I you need to be a registered Member . but its FREE to join
... click here
<http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/e-p-i-extreme-punter-intelligence/e-p-i-acc
ess-details/> to either register or login.
Oh and can you please use AUSRACE as the Member Group when registering.
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Doug Robb
Sent: Thursday, 9 February 2017 2:04 AM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Formatting
Just testing this for Mike. I've loosened up the post filters so we should
be able to post spreadsheets and/or pdf files around to make it easier to
read these sorts of posts. Also html mail should work as well so you can
post a more neatly formatted email rather than just plain text. This message
is html format with image embedded so you can see what I mean.
Re Len's posts if they are in the archive they will have been sent out so
maybe check junk email (or spam) on your local mailer. I did see one post
Len that was held because it was over the size limit of 250k but I can
increase this to 500k next time I look at the defaults.
Also a lot of addresses have triggered automatic block to send any more mail
(since the email addresses seem to be dead). This is an example below. If
your email is bouncing because the ISP is down and its bounced 5 posts back
its blocked and I will go through and delete off the list. The subscribe
page is on the website if you want to check you are subscribed at any time,
Doug
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of
mikemcb at southcom.com.au <mailto:mikemcb at southcom.com.au>
Sent: Sunday, 5 February 2017 5:12 PM
To: Ausrace Mailing List
Subject: [AusRace] Formatting
Try this one then I will give up if unsuccessful...
TRACK RN TN HORSE CALC1
FPOS WINDIV PLCDIV SYSTEMNAME
SUNSHINE COAST 1 5 Zukaz
68.33 1ST 1.9 1.2 BETFAIR
PLACE ONLY
SINGAPORE 2 1 One Kinabalu
60.54 3RD
1.1 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
SALE 8 4 Henry George
61.08 1ST 2.2 1.3 BETFAIR
PLACE ONLY
ALICE SPRINGS 1 1 Shivarchi
63.11 4TH
BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
ALICE SPRINGS 2 1 Kentucky Fireball
65 1ST 1.7 1.3 BETFAIR
PLACE ONLY
ALICE SPRINGS 3 1 Bel Maiya
66.32 2ND
1.7 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
MUDGEE 4 1 Sprezzatura
66.47 2ND
1.4 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
HOBART 5 4 Derasa 61.58
2ND
1.3 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
HOBART 7 1 Hot Dipped
63.33 1ST 1.7 1.2 BETFAIR
PLACE ONLY
HOBART 8 7 Big Duke 62.78
2ND
1.4 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
BORDERTOWN 2 1 Battistoni
62.22 1ST 3.5 2.3 BETFAIR
PLACE ONLY
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