[AusRace] Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
Paul
womble at internode.on.net
Wed Mar 29 20:37:37 AEDT 2017
G'day Nick
Thanks for that - interesting figures
I can't remember what years the book was about but the number that
always stood out in my mind was that only 10% of 3rd favourites won.
Based on the numbers I've just checked for 15, 16 and 17ytd in your data
it's up over 13% each year which lines up more with where it should be.
There goes the plan of laying all 3rd favs to make money lol
I find it fascinating that despite having so much more information these
days and computers to churn through the numbers favs still win around
33% of races year in year out - although they are up a little more so
far in 2017 i'd be surprised if it doesn't even out once again.
Interestingly if you backed every favourite using your best price figure
you would've made a small profit each year.
Overall, fascinating figures Nick - thanks very much for giving us
access to them
Paul
On 03/29/2017 06:46 AM, Nick at Twonix wrote:
>
> Hi Paul,
>
> Unfortunately 30k record export is a current Microsoft Power BI
> limitation. However it can be overcome by dividing your export into 30
> k chunks by using the slicers. E.g. export by year .
>
> I have added a column called “Odds Rank” plus a measure called Top5
> which shows the % of winners in the top5 of the market.
>
> Enjoy,
> AN
>
> *From:*Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *Paul
> *Sent:* Monday, 27 March 2017 3:10 PM
> *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
>
> G'day Nick
>
> Had a little look this afternoon and think it's kind of interesting.
>
> Couple of things. Is the export limited to 30,000 records or is that
> just a limitation at my end?
>
> I was hoping to be able to check how some stats were holding up from a
> book i had years ago around the first 5 in the market but your data
> doesn't seem to have that? Well not without a bit more work anyway
>
> Overall though, if anyone is big on stats they should have a look
>
> Cheers
>
> Paul
>
> Sent from my Samsung GALAXY S5 on the Telstra Mobile Network
>
>
>
> -------- Original message --------
> From: Nick at Twonix <nick.aubrey at twonix.com
> <mailto:nick.aubrey at twonix.com>>
> Date: 26/03/2017 08:33 (GMT+10:00)
> To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
>
> Hi All,
>
> Still very slow on Ausrace … have not received a new post in over 2
> weeks so I thought I’d send one …
>
> I have added TRACK CONDITION to the FLB query so you can now see how
> FLB results change according to various track conditions. The results
> astounded me. Especially useful with more heavy tracks forecast in
> Sydney for the Championships. If you are interest just click on *_Is
> _**_Favourite-Longshot Bias
> <http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/2017/03/is-favourite-longshot-bias-dead/>
> _**_Dead_* and follow the prompts. It’s all FREE !
>
> I have now uploaded race results from yesterday (Saturday 25^th Match)
> plus I have *extended the results back to the start of 2013.* That’s
> now OVER A MILLION horse race records that can be queried in the
> twinkling of an eye. I tell you what … Microsoft’s Power BI
> application is a game changer for ANY business … not just Horse Racing.
>
> Enjoy,
>
> AN
>
> *From:*Nick at Twonix [mailto:nick.aubrey at twonix.com]
> *Sent:* Sunday, 12 March 2017 11:41 PM
> *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> *Subject:* Is Favourite-Longshot Bias dead ?
>
> Hi All,
>
> Just to let you know that I’m now updating the EPI race results on a
> weekly basis so that yesterday’s Saturday races (11 March 2017) are
> there now.
>
> Also for those that are interested I have just posed the question on
> my website … is Favourite-Longshot Bias
> <http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/2017/03/is-favourite-longshot-bias-dead/>
> dead ?
>
> Cheers,
>
> AN
>
> *From:*Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *Nick
> at Twonix
> *Sent:* Saturday, 4 March 2017 8:18 AM
> *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Access FREE race results ... and much more
>
> Just to let everyone know that there is no software required to browse
> and export the results available in EPI. All you need is a web browser.
>
> Using EPI stats I have just made a post looking at Michelle Payne’s
> performance over the last 14 months. Interested to hear what Len thinks.
>
> http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/2017/03/michelle-payne-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/
>
> Cheers,
>
> AN
>
> *From:*Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *Nick
> at Twonix
> *Sent:* Friday, 3 March 2017 6:55 AM
> *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> *Subject:* [AusRace] Access FREE race results ... and much more
>
> Hi All,
>
> It looks like the Ausrace email list has run its course but thought
> I’d do one last post to let you know about a new racing project of
> mine … see below.
>
> Cheers,
>
> AN
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
> /What started as a request from an Ausrace
> <http://www.ausrace.com/mailing-list/ausrace-archives/> member to
> access Australian race results has now expanded into far more than
> what I thought was possible to deliver via the internet./
>
> //
>
> /What does Extreme Punter Intelligence (E.P.I.) provide ?/
>
> ·/You can get results of all Australasian races run since January
> 2016 ... more than 233,000 horse race runs covering over 23,000 races
> ... involving 38,000 horses./
>
> ·/You can select results for a particular group of races ... or all
> runs for a specific horse .. or all rides for a particular jockey ...
> or any jockey / trainer combination./
>
> ·/You can compare the performance of an infinite number of system
> scenarios by using measures such as Strike Rate and the powerful A2E
> statistic./
>
> ·/You can export the results of any query into a CSV file./
>
> //
>
> /And due to the power of Microsoft's hosting of their Power BI
> application online (it's the BEST thing that Microsoft have ever done)
> a typical E.P.I query only takes a few seconds ... amazing when you
> consider there are over 235,000 race result records !/
>
> /To access E.P.I you need to be a registered Member … but its FREE to
> join ... click here
> <http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/e-p-i-extreme-punter-intelligence/e-p-i-access-details/>to
> either register or login./
>
> /Oh and can you please use AUSRACE as the Member Group when registering./
>
> *From:*Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *Doug Robb
> *Sent:* Thursday, 9 February 2017 2:04 AM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com
> <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Formatting
>
> Just testing this for Mike. I've loosened up the post filters so we
> should be able to post spreadsheets and/or pdf files around to make it
> easier to read these sorts of posts. Also html mail should work as
> well so you can post a more neatly formatted email rather than just
> plain text. This message is html format with image embedded so you can
> see what I mean.
>
> Re Len's posts if they are in the archive they will have been sent out
> so maybe check junk email (or spam) on your local mailer. I did see
> one post Len that was held because it was over the size limit of 250k
> but I can increase this to 500k next time I look at the defaults.
>
> Also a lot of addresses have triggered automatic block to send any
> more mail (since the email addresses seem to be dead). This is an
> example below. If your email is bouncing because the ISP is down and
> its bounced 5 posts back its blocked and I will go through and delete
> off the list. The subscribe page is on the website if you want to
> check you are subscribed at any time,
>
> Doug
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of
> mikemcb at southcom.com.au <mailto:mikemcb at southcom.com.au>
> Sent: Sunday, 5 February 2017 5:12 PM
> To: Ausrace Mailing List
> Subject: [AusRace] Formatting
>
> Try this one then I will give up if unsuccessful...
>
> TRACK RN TN HORSE CALC1
>
> FPOS WINDIV PLCDIV SYSTEMNAME
>
> SUNSHINE COAST 1 5 Zukaz 68.33 1ST
> 1.9 1.2 BETFAIR
>
> PLACE ONLY
>
> SINGAPORE 2 1 One Kinabalu 60.54 3RD
>
> 1.1 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
>
> SALE 8 4 Henry George
> 61.08 1ST 2.2 1.3 BETFAIR
>
> PLACE ONLY
>
> ALICE SPRINGS 1 1 Shivarchi
> 63.11 4TH
>
> BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
>
> ALICE SPRINGS 2 1 Kentucky
> Fireball 65 1ST 1.7 1.3 BETFAIR
>
> PLACE ONLY
>
> ALICE SPRINGS 3 1 Bel
> Maiya 66.32 2ND
>
> 1.7 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
>
> MUDGEE 4 1 Sprezzatura 66.47 2ND
>
> 1.4 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
>
> HOBART 5 4 Derasa 61.58 2ND
>
> 1.3 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
>
> HOBART 7 1 Hot Dipped 63.33 1ST
> 1.7 1.2 BETFAIR
>
> PLACE ONLY
>
> HOBART 8 7 Big Duke 62.78 2ND
>
> 1.4 BETFAIR PLACE ONLY
>
> BORDERTOWN 2 1 Battistoni 62.22 1ST
> 3.5 2.3 BETFAIR
>
> PLACE ONLY
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> Racing mailing list
>
> Racing at ausrace.com <mailto:Racing at ausrace.com>
>
> http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Racing mailing list
> Racing at ausrace.com
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