[AusRace] The Longshot Plan

Tony Moffat tonymoffat at bigpond.com
Fri Jul 7 17:30:21 AEST 2017


>From the Age of systems - the 50's and 60's.
The author here explains the procedures completely and advises you
must be temperamentally suited to 'play' a system, or else never
attempt to operate one in the first place.
Systems-operation is no sport for the chicken-hearted, he says
Also,You must have tenacity of purpose, repeated.
And, Systems fail because the operator hasn't got the tenacity of
purpose -this is repeated.
Then there are usually examples of bad runs, and straight away, good
runs demonstrations.
The XX Longshot Plan - you work on 7 races throughout the year.
(a)	Grand National Steeplechase -the selection is the runner which
finished 4th or 5th or 6th in the Kensington Steeplechase a week
earlier. If the runner who came 4th is entered, it is the selection.
Disregard other entries. If there are no runners from the Q race there
is no bet on the GN
(b)	Footscray Steeplechase - if there is a runner in this that
came 4th or 5th or 6th in the Kensington Steeplechase then it becomes
the selection. Disregard other entries.
(c)	Australian Steeplechase - the selection is the horse which won
the Godfrey Watson Steeplechase or the horse which ran second in that
race.
(d)	Spring Stakes - the selection is the topweight.
(e)	Caulfield Guineas - same selection as the Spring Stakes but
only if it won the Spring Stakes.
(f)	Melbourne Cup - the selection is the runner who finished in
the Caulfield Cup
(g)	Sandown Guineas - the selection is the filly who did best of
the 4th,5th,6th in The Oaks.
A 400 pound bank is suggested and 10% of the highest level the bank
reached as the stake. 
1953 (a) won 11/4, out 40, in 150, win 110, bank 510
1953 (b) won 5/2, out 51, in178.5, win 127.5, bank 637.5
1953 C unplaced, out 63.75, bank 573.75
1953 (f) won 14/1, out 63.75, in 956.25, bank 1465.75
1954 (a) won 16/1, out  146.57,in 2491.69, bank 3810.87
1954 (b) 3rd, out 381, bank 3429
1954 C won 3/1, out 381, in 1524, bank 4572
1954 (d) won 6/4, out 457, in 1142.5,bank 5257.5
1954 (e) won 10/1, out 525, in 5775, bank 10507.5
1954 (f) unplaced, out 1050, bank 9457
1955 (a) unp ,out 1050, bank 8407
1955 (b) won 7/2, out 1050, in 4725, bank 12082
1955C won 4/1, out 1208, in 6040, bank 16914
1955 (f) unplaced, out 1691, bank 15223
1956 (a) unplaced, out 1691, bank 13701
1956 (b) won 12/1, out 1691, in 21983, bank 33993
1956 C won 9/4, out 3399, in 11046.75, bank 42640.75
1956 (f) won 15/1, out 4264, in 68224, bank 106600.75.
1957 (a) won 11/8,out 10660, in 25264, bank 146041
1957 (b) unplaced, out 14604, bank 131440
1957 C won 4/6, out 14604, in 24388, bank 141224
1957 (d) won 3/1, out 14604, in 58416, bank 185036
1957 (g) won 10/1, out 18503, in 203533, bank 370066.
1958 went unp,won6/1,won8/1,unp,unp.
1959 went unp,unp,won 7/1,won 2/1,won 20/1,unp,won 6/1
1960 went won 25/1,won 5/2, unp,unp,unp
1961 went unp,unp,unp,unp,won 20/1,unp
1962 went unp, won 9/2, won 4/1, unp,unp,unp
1963 went unp, unp, won 1/1,unp,won 25/1
1964 went unp,unp,unp,unp
1965 went won 7/1,unp, won 6/4, unp,unp,won 5/2
1966 unp,unp,unp, unp, won 14/1.
It got skinny towards the end, and off a million pound bank you
were betting 100,000 each time -that is tenacity of purpose.
Summary:
(a)	GN Steeple, 14 bets, 5 winners, 11-4,16-1,11-8,25-1,7-1
(b)	Footscray S, 9 bets, 4 winners, 5-2,7-2,12-1,9-2
(c)	Aust Stple, 14 bets,8 winners, 3-1,4-1,9-4,4-6,6-1,7-1,5-2,4-1
(d)	Spring Stks 10 bets, 6 winners,6-4,3-1,8-1,2-1,1-1,6-4
(e)	Caulfield Gns 4 bets, 2 winners, 10-1,20-1
(f)	Melbourne C, 13 bets,4 winners 14-1,15-1,20-1,25-1
(g)	Sandown Gns, 8 bets, 4 winners, 10-1,6-1,5-2,14-1
An assessment after a couple of years in would have resulted in you
wanting
To drop the MC bet, wouldn't it.
The race names have changed, the scheduling has changed so the races
don't appear on the
calendar as they once did. I don't know the basis of the selection
rules, they worked occasionally though, right.
Typed by the young lady with braces, tanks

Cheers

Tony

 



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