[AusRace] Phil's post on bookies prices

[Greg Conroy]

Hi Phil,

Insightful - you’re not too far wrong. I haven’t done the tests you have with multiple sample bets, but I know that Dynamic Odds is well and truly the tool of choice in most trading rooms. 

What you probably missed is the relation of Betfair prices to the fixed prices. Have you watched that?

I won’t give too much away here but that’s a very interesting dynamic and there are some bookies who will ensure they never offer higher than the last matched on BF.

So that’s totally automated. And it’s all about reducing the ‘arbers’ opportunity. Similar happens with SportsBetting -  where the margin is tighter so it’s even more important. Coys such as SportsRadar exist to provide those ‘intel’ feeds.

Cheers, Greg

>  
> From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>] On Behalf Of PhilM
> Sent: Wednesday, 11 January 2017 3:31 PM
> To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] test
>  
>  
> Thanks Doug... hope this gets through to everyone, I'd love some feedback.........
> I posted this article a week ago at least but never saw it come back into my e-mail box as an Ausrace post, so I'll send again with some editing....
> It's all hype as far as Centrebet accepting big bets go! William Hill/Centrebet, Crownbet,  Classicbet, TopSport, Luxbet, Unibet all have computerised systems running now where they will never be top odds on any racehorse when betting first opens.  My feeling is that they are working through Dynamic Odds. All of them wait for at least two bookies to put up their odds, almost always in order of TAB.com.au <http://tab.com.au/> which then get hit, with Sportsbet most times waiting to see their odds coming in second,. Bet365, who don't care less about either of them and throw up their own opinions, either before or after the other two, except trying to get on for more than pennies is the problem with them. TattsBet once were game to put up their prices at times before these three but that seems to have stopped in recent weeks. I have not followed Ladbrokes for a long time but they would sometimes put up odds first but the very instant another bookie put up their market Ladbrokes would quite often dramatically change their odds in close line with this bookie.
> I think it's getting to a point where it's like the stock market high frequency trading systems, these bookies are moving so rapidly to adjust their odds and I guarantee you that most times William Hill/ Centrebet, Crownbet,  Classicbet, TopSport, Luxbet, Unibet, Ladbrokes are not taking a single bet, regardless of what early fluctuations you see from them through Dynamic Odds. You can never take notice of their odds changes as if they have taken big bets on these horses.... they have absolutely not!
>  
> For example, Warwick Farm race 1 tlast Saturday TAB.com.au <http://tab.com.au/> puts up their odds...
>  
> Single Bullet 2.1
> Callmetrouble 8
> Colesberg  11
> Radiant Choice 4.6
> Dunaton 101
> Te Amo  3.5
> Charlie Chap 26
>  
> Bet365 on this occasion had their odds up before TABcorp , a huge difference with some.....
>  
> Single Bullet 1.4
> Callmetrouble 8
> Colesberg  16
> Radiant Choice 6.0
> Dunaton 101
> Te Amo  6.0
> Charlie Chap 101
>  
> Sportsbet came in later with this race....
>  
> Single Bullet 1.45
> Callmetrouble 11
> Colesberg  14
> Radiant Choice 6.0
> Dunaton 101
> Te Amo  5.5
> Charlie Chap 67
>  
> Crownbet and Centrebet/Hill both came in to the market when it settled a lot closer and their odds were both set around half way between these three above if there is variation, if prices were the same for the three they might give equal odds, but never higher odds. The very moment say Sportsbet shortens their odds... these list of followers immediately do the same without a bet being written, making sure they are under top odds or perfectly in between the high and low odds elsewhere! With Hill and Crown the change is almost instantaneous. They have zero opinion of their own, their computerised system has them smashing the odds without a single bet being struck. For a month or two Hill actually took on at least one horse in a race at both Melbourne and Sydney tracks and would be top odds, but that ended weeks ago now.
> I believe Sportsbet sometimes plays games with these followers, dropping the odds on something without a bet being taken and watch the rest follow like the sheep they are. I think there is big opportunity here for those that have an accurate assessment of any race to manipulate the odds and catch these weak mongrels out. I hope it's happening a lot already! Recently I did a little test with three bets on the same horse at the same time with Tabcorp, Luxbet, Topsport.. all to win under $100. They all came off the odds, and Hill, Crown and Unibet all dropped odds in unison without a bet being taken. Anyone would think there was a massive plunge in the early markets, not bets to win a total of under $300!
> So yeah, you might get on with Hill/Centrebet, but I assure you that you'll get better odds elsewhere at that very moment in time.
>  
> Phil M
> 
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> Wed, 11 Jan 2017 15:22:44 +1000
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> [AusRace] test
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> message received Phil
>  
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Greg Conroy, Inventor of Award Winning and Free:
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