[AusRace] Phil's post on bookies prices

Mon Feb 6 15:18:54 AEDT 2017

I'm more than confused with this new system.... I posted several times
expecting to see it back in my inbox through Ausrace so assumed
nothing was getting through, then Greg answers my post 16 days later.
Where you found it Greg I don't know! Added to that is a new e-mail
system with Internode that has me tearing my hair out and it's even
more confusing. OK I've replied to Greg and cc'd to racing at ausrace.com
....  will it come back to me this time?!With the relation to Betfair
prices, yeah I'm fully aware of that but I'm referring to a Wednesday
afternoon opening odds for Saturdays races when Betfair has not even
put up the fields. Even so, the amounts available on Betfair up to the
official racecourse betting are so low except for the big races that
the bookies take almost no notice of those early bets. As far as
arbing goes, I wish I'd just taken the "back" side of the bet for
years and I'd be far more in front. I now hope to grab the best early
odds and at the very most now will lay back half with a minute or so
before jump, and I'm now on the winning side with Betfair, but not by
a lot! Even so I've made some horrendous bets early, such as taking
26.0 on Our Meteor on Wednesday first up and it going off at 170 on
Betfair at the jump! When I stuff up like that, it's a waste of time
even bothering to lay anything back!Regards, Phil M
----- Original Message -----
From: "Greg Conroy" 
To:"Ausrace Racing" 
Cc:"PhilM" 
Sent:Fri, 27 Jan 2017 22:22:35 +1100
Subject:Phil's post on bookies prices

Hi Phil, 
 Insightful - you’re not too far wrong. I haven’t done the tests
you have with multiple sample bets, but I know that Dynamic Odds is
well and truly the tool of choice in most trading rooms.  
 What you probably missed is the relation of Betfair prices to the
fixed prices. Have you watched that? 
 I won’t give too much away here but that’s a very interesting
dynamic and there are some bookies who will ensure they never offer
higher than the last matched on BF. 
 So that’s totally automated. And it’s all about reducing the
‘arbers’ opportunity. Similar happens with SportsBetting -  where
the margin is tighter so it’s even more important. Coys such as
SportsRadar exist to provide those ‘intel’ feeds. 
 Cheers, Greg  

	   FROM: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com [1]] ON BEHALF
OF PhilM
SENT: Wednesday, 11 January 2017 3:31 PM
TO: AusRace Racing Discussion List
SUBJECT: Re: [AusRace] test

	Thanks Doug... hope this gets through to everyone, I'd love some
feedback.........

	I posted this article a week ago at least but never saw it come back
into my e-mail box as an Ausrace post, so I'll send again with some
editing....

	It's all hype as far as Centrebet accepting big bets go! William
Hill/Centrebet, Crownbet,  Classicbet, TopSport, Luxbet, Unibet all
have computerised systems running now where they will never be top
odds on any racehorse when betting first opens.  My feeling is that
they are working through Dynamic Odds. All of them wait for at least
two bookies to put up their odds, almost always in order
of TAB.com.au [2] which then get hit, with Sportsbet most times
waiting to see their odds coming in second,. Bet365, who don't care
less about either of them and throw up their own opinions, either
before or after the other two, except trying to get on for more than
pennies is the problem with them. TattsBet once were game to put up
their prices at times before these three but that seems to have
stopped in recent weeks. I have not followed Ladbrokes for a long time
but they would sometimes put up odds first but the very instant
another bookie put up their market Ladbrokes would quite often
dramatically change their odds in close line with this bookie.

	I think it's getting to a point where it's like the stock market high
frequency trading systems, these bookies are moving so rapidly to
adjust their odds and I guarantee you that most times William Hill/
Centrebet, Crownbet,  Classicbet, TopSport, Luxbet, Unibet, Ladbrokes
are not taking a single bet, regardless of what early fluctuations you
see from them through Dynamic Odds. You can never take notice of their
odds changes as if they have taken big bets on these horses.... they
have absolutely not!

	For example, Warwick Farm race 1 tlast Saturday TAB.com.au [3] puts
up their odds...

	Single Bullet 2.1

	Callmetrouble 8

	Colesberg  11

	Radiant Choice 4.6

	Dunaton 101

	Te Amo  3.5

	Charlie Chap 26

	Bet365 on this occasion had their odds up before TABcorp , a huge
difference with some.....

	Single Bullet 1.4

	Callmetrouble 8

	Colesberg  16

	Radiant Choice 6.0

	Dunaton 101

	Te Amo  6.0

	Charlie Chap 101

	Sportsbet came in later with this race....

	Single Bullet 1.45

	Callmetrouble 11

	Colesberg  14

	Radiant Choice 6.0

	Dunaton 101

	Te Amo  5.5

	Charlie Chap 67

	Crownbet and Centrebet/Hill both came in to the market when it
settled a lot closer and their odds were both set around half way
between these three above if there is variation, if prices were the
same for the three they might give equal odds, but never higher odds.
The very moment say Sportsbet shortens their odds... these list of
followers immediately do the same without a bet being written, making
sure they are under top odds or perfectly in between the high and low
odds elsewhere! With Hill and Crown the change is almost
instantaneous. They have zero opinion of their own, their computerised
system has them smashing the odds without a single bet being struck.
For a month or two Hill actually took on at least one horse in a race
at both Melbourne and Sydney tracks and would be top odds, but that
ended weeks ago now.

	I believe Sportsbet sometimes plays games with these followers,
dropping the odds on something without a bet being taken and watch the
rest follow like the sheep they are. I think there is big opportunity
here for those that have an accurate assessment of any race to
manipulate the odds and catch these weak mongrels out. I hope it's
happening a lot already! Recently I did a little test with three bets
on the same horse at the same time with Tabcorp, Luxbet, Topsport..
all to win under $100. They all came off the odds, and Hill, Crown and
Unibet all dropped odds in unison without a bet being taken. Anyone
would think there was a massive plunge in the early markets, not bets
to win a total of under $300!

	So yeah, you might get on with Hill/Centrebet, but I assure you that
you'll get better odds elsewhere at that very moment in time.

	Phil M

Links:
------
[1] mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com
[2] http://tab.com.au/
[3] http://tab.com.au/

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