[AusRace] Causes - software that no longer works

[Tony Moffat]

Causes - a data access program for horse racing information (that no longer
works)
'Causes' accessed AAP data through a common noticeboard -you didn't need to
subscribe to AAP, just purchase the software, install it, and away you went.
When the data supplier (AAP) either closed that portal, or, reacted to their
data being accessed without payment by some, most, the program and its
software went terminal.
'Causes' never drew conclusions from what was displayed, it just put a heap
of runner data up for perusal and you, the user, could come to your own
conclusions about the runner. 
First column (actually column G) was the win dividends ranked from lowest to
highest
Second column (H) was the place dividends ranked lowest to highest - both
used NSW Tab data which was updated by the minute, pre-race of course
Third column (I) was runners age ranked again, youngest got a 1
Fourth column (J) was barrier - 1 =1, 2=2, etc
Fifth column was runner winner % ranked, highest to lowest
Sixth column was runner place % ranked, highest to lowest
Seventh column was API, then columns for days since last start ranked, most
recent = 1, then weight allocated, ranked heaviest =1 no claims included,
then Jockey off their win record, trainer likewise.
Form data (previous starts information) was contentious and with there
being no FAQ/guide/support you had to reverse engineer some of the data to
ascertain how the values were arrived at. Assume the runner has four
previous starts and finished 1-2-3-4.
(P) was the four previous runs summed after subtracting off a base of 9 -
1-9 =A, A-2 =B, B-3 =C, C-4 = D  so -8, -7,-6,-5.-5 is the score for this
runner, all scores are ranked.
This, and subsequent values, are obtained off the writings of VDW, an
English form analyst, who did his darndest to complicate things, as you can
see.
(Q) was the form score subtracted from the finish position, essentially
showing how many runners the subject horse had beaten in each of the last 4
runs.
So 9-1+9-2+9-3+9-4 = 21 and this value was ranked in conjunction with all
the other values, high numbers helped here (meaning it beat home up to 32
previously if it achieved 1111. Ranked highest to lowest
(R) values are obtained when the scores are multiplied together (1*2*3*4 =
24) then divided by the worst score (24/4 =6) so this the value obtained
when the best 3 of the last 4 scores are used- Little numbers help, and the
results are ranked lowest to highest.
(S) is the fining down of the runners previous form (over 4 starts) so that
any 1 or 2 or 3 is given a value and these values are multiplied together
and the results ranked. There is a morning line worked out of this value
alone. It is a strong indicator of a result.
(T) an attempt to allocate a final value to the runners 3 best runs (out of
4) by multiplying the finish position with supplied values, the origin of
those values is not known (to me)
(U) This is an extrapolation of (R) whereby the finish of 1*2*3*4 is known
already (it's 24) however this seeks to increase this value by making the 4
a 5, then making the 4 a 3, and this numbers are multiplied together and the
result ranked. It is voodoo (as if all of this isn't already) but strange
new values do occur not that this seems to help us down the slippery slopes
of winner finding. This is the ranking of the values which occurred after
the last number was increased, the 4 became a 5
(V) This is the ranking of the values which occurred after the last number
was decreased, the 4 became a 3.
There are two other columns. Last start beaten margin is given a value and
ranked. The other column is the strong indicator of a probable appearance in
a finish. The Place dividend is divided by the win dividend and the result
multiplied by 100 to get a percentage ranking - big numbers are good a,d big
numbers are more likely to be involved with short dividends. It is an
indication of the amount of money ratio, has the win tote had more on this
than the place tote. While this factor, in various guises, has been around
for a while, there are books about it, it can be a dynamite indicator,
although not always (otherwise I wouldn't be telling you). Rankings greater
than 36 are good and above 41 is better.
The software doesn't work now, as sold, but I have copied its maths and
machinations onto a sheet from DynamicOdds and have used that for a while
now (5 years).
I typed this for the avowed purpose of being the last post for 2020
The software was published by Crash!Bang!Wallop! which were based in Fiji
The real purpose of the software was to select the winner (after the event
now) and read along its line to find out why it did what it did - it's an
education. The old chestnuts of win/place % and API have still got it. Long
priced winners arrive from almost anywhere. Generally a winner will arrive
when a lot of the data appears to be in its favour, say a total of 15 or
more when the score rankings are restricted to 3 or 4 across the 20 fields.
Cheers

Tony



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