[AusRace] Jockeys generally

Tue Jan 22 16:38:07 AEDT 2019

JockeyA2ETable
AscotTrack
Rider Distance Actual Expected Rides A2E
DAMIAN LANE 1200 7 22.25 178 0.31
DANIEL STAECK 1000 3 20.40 157 0.15
DANIEL STAECK 1200 12 20.40 206 0.59
DANIEL STAECK 1400 19 19.39 222 0.98
DANIEL STAECK 1600 11 7.68 59 1.43
DANIEL STAECK 1800 9 8.61 48 1.05
LUCY WARWICK 1000 19 11.83 150 1.61
LUCY WARWICK 1200 10 8.98 53 1.11
PETER HALL 1200 9 8.12 56 1.11
PETER HALL 1400 15 7.37 59 2.04
PETER HALL 1600 18 22.28 184 0.81
PETER HALL 1800 4 7.88 45 0.51
PETER KNUCKEY 1000 26 64.45 381 0.40
PETER KNUCKEY 1100 26 35.25 253 0.74
PETER KNUCKEY 1200 36 34.01 207 1.06
PETER KNUCKEY 1400 27 24.39 159 1.11
PETER KNUCKEY 1600 11 40.31 214 0.27
PETER KNUCKEY 1800 9 7.44 60 1.21
WILLIAM PIKE 1000 37 48.42 332 0.76
WILLIAM PIKE 1100 41 80.55 571 0.51
WILLIAM PIKE 1200 96 86.60 434 1.11
WILLIAM PIKE 1400 89 86.57 487 1.03
WILLIAM PIKE 1500 26 26.37 127 0.99
WILLIAM PIKE 1600 79 70.15 474 1.13
WILLIAM PIKE 1800 33 35.14 159 0.94
WILLIAM PIKE 2200 38 45.77 246 0.83

Here an extract of a few jocks in WA. The right hand column is the ROI for
a $1.
Caveat is these rides only include the first 5 in the market. Primitive
means of extracting
the outliers.

Essentially the over round is taken out and the markets reset to 100%. From
there an expected
wins figure is arrived at. And ultimately checked against the actual. These
have pulled at random.
The first couple are interesting. Remembering these are in the first 5.

On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 5:13 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

> Tony,
>
>
>
> Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different
> rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.
>
>
>
> LBL
>
>
>
>
>
> 790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to
>
> expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame
>
> covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40%
> advanced
>
> on some others in this race.
>
>
>
> No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than
>
> that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a
>
> horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for
>
> statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a
>
> calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a
> good
>
> ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -
>
> .6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).
>
>
>
> Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is
>
> 0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is
>
> .31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign
>
> that value to it early in the calculation.
>
>
>
> Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of
>
> all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is
> a
>
> jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank
>
> jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so
>
> that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and
>
> I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all
>
> the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I
>
> individually determine an iv.
>
>
>
> There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is
>
> not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends
>
> in the sub $2 range, most of us really.
>
>
>
> This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under
>
> the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in
>
> 1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually
>
> Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is
> again
>
> divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These
>
> numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of
> the
>
> overall stat picture
>
>
>
> Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as
>
> jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from
>
> that.
>
>
>
> Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I
>
> multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.
>
> Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)
>
> Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win
>
> a race
>
> Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.
>
> Dylan Dunn = 1.1
>
>
>
> There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.
>
> This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting
>
> in it, nor do I suggest you do.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Racing mailing list
> Racing at ausrace.com
> http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/attachments/20190122/b78f0ea3/attachment.html>