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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Len – 1,2,3 are always shown, but never 10,14 or 21 except usually just a zero (0). That was ‘down the back’ I was referring to.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>ALSO I used a cap of 9 in the mumbled explanation. 3 of 9 or 6 of 9. That is what I use. Manfroi went that extra yard and gave us 21 out of 24 (for a Cup, say).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br><b>Sent:</b> Friday, 27 January 2023 2:44 PM<br><b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Manfroi Methods - systems<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Tony,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>A new term for me after all these years (started betting on races as a 12yo).<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>What is " a result down the back"?<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>cheers,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>LBL<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><br>----- Original Message -----<o:p></o:p></span></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:#E4E4E4'><b><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>From:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:#E4E4E4'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>"AusRace Racing Discussion List" <racing@ausracecom><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>To:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>"AusRace Racing Discussion List" <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Cc:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Sent:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Fri, 27 Jan 2023 10:55:01 +0800<o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>Subject:<o:p></o:p></span></b></p></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica",sans-serif'>[AusRace] Manfroi Methods - systems<br><br><br>In the 60's Manfroi was a race horse form analysis tutor based in Melbourne.<br>He had a course you signed up to, paid your money, and went to school a<br>couple of days a month (week?)<br><br>He considered the horse as a tertiary ( he could have said third) element in<br>form analysis. First was the trainer then the jockey, then the horse. His<br>course notes are listed as primary, secondary, tertiary, quaternary (the<br>track), quinary (the distance), septenary (weight) etc .<br><br>Manfroi had quite a few systems. None of these will be examined in detail in<br>this.<br><br>One element he dwellt upon/over was barrier(s). This was sept something<br>(sepsis?).<br><br>He analysed form in a race in barrier order 1, then 2, etc. <br>First he found out how many runners (and so barriers) then deducted one from<br>that - say 11 contestants - 1 =10<br><br>10 was the 'baseline' and from this were deductions for form elements<br>considered helpful to the chance of the horse<br><br>1. runs since a spell - no more than 5 - although today can be its 6th run<br>(from a spell) and can be included if it has not had more than 5 runs (up to<br>this point in time?) 10 -1 = 9<br>2. age - no runner older than 5 years. 9-1 = 8<br>3. distance - if it has raced over the distance or similar. 8-1 =7<br>4. track - it it has run at the track. 7-1 =6<br>5. jockey- if todays jockey has ridden it any time = 6-1 = 5<br>6. barrier - if the barrier today is helpful. 5- 1 = 4<br><br>That was it, primarily. <br><br>To clarify the runs from a spell clause, today can be its 6th run and that<br>is acceptable, but the rules say one thing and the explanation says another<br>- no more than 5, or 6 if it has had 5 previous (which doesn't make much<br>sense)<br>Age, no older than 5, but in order to corral a good bet you could go to 6<br>years or 7 years if there was recent good form to draw upon, (and I don't<br>know what that means either), but it had to be a one off thing, once a race,<br>and applied to all runners.<br>Distance is self explanatory (D or d) in old form guides but that doesn't<br>allow for a run and a result down the back<br>Track is self explanatory (T or t) in old form guides but that doesn't allow<br>for a run and a result down the back<br>Jockey is self explanatory<br>Barrier is not explained - inside and including 7 is in the course notes.<br><br>Some results included<br><br>The jockey aspect was unique. Manfroi recorded the past 4 finish positions<br>of the jockeys under form investigation - eg the jockeys riding from<br>barriers 1 - 7 above and added that data to the other information to assist<br>him in deciding a bet. He used the last four starts.<br><br>At Sandown today, before racing started, Oliver had finish (form) figures of<br>3,2,6,1,3 - his last ride was a third, his second last ride was a win.<br>Manfroi took those finish figures and took them away from the number of<br>starters in each race. Last ride 3rd for Ollie shows he was in with 11<br>others in that race, 12 in all so he beat home 9 runners. Manfroi calculated<br>that he beat home 75% of the runners in that race (9/12 *100). He, Manfroi,<br>did that calculation for all 4 rides. The Oliver form finish figures are a<br>little bendable. This morning he was 32613, and next time out he will be<br>13308 after racing Thursday.<br><br>This morning Ollie had these figures (9-3<br>=6)+(9-2=7)+(9-6=3)+(9-1=8)+(9-3=6) and summing the residuals we got <br>6+7+3+8+6 = 30. He ran in races against 8 other runners (he made up the 9)<br>so he opposed 40 other runners (5* 8) and beat 30 of those home - 30/40 *100<br>= 75 per cent.<br><br>RewardBet has a page where you can download jockey figures on a daily basis.<br>Greg Conroy has approved its use here <br><br>See: <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/czh7rrm57fvwbi9/RB_Jockeyform.xlsm?dl=0">https://www.dropbox.com/s/czh7rrm57fvwbi9/RB_Jockeyform.xlsm?dl=0</a><br><br>Thanks Greg and RewardBet<br><br>There are several ways to use the form data for jockeys. Each race is a<br>different event not linked to the race before.<br><br>(a) The form figures could be multiplied together to get a mass total -<br>small numbers are better<br>(b) Divide the total by the two bigger numbers - you are crediting the<br>jockey with two substandard performances, either of his making or the horse<br>s/he rode. <br>(c) sum the form figures - small numbers are better. This was commonplace in<br>the hey day of systems.<br>(d) use slippage - using Ollies 32613 it goes 3-2+2-6+6-1+1-3 = 1+-4+5+-2 =<br>0. That shows that Ollie is neutral at this point. It also shows that races<br>are affected by results over time. They're not.<br><br>There is more - perhaps next time<br><br>Cheers<br><br>Tony<br><br><br><br><br><br>-- <br>This email has been checked for viruses by AVG antivirus software.<br><a href="http://www.avgcom">www.avgcom</a><br><br>_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausracecom/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com">http://ausracecom/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p></blockquote></div><div id="DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br /><table style="border-top: 1px solid #D3D4DE;"><tr><td style="width: 55px; padding-top: 13px;"><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><img src="https://s-install.avcdn.net/ipm/preview/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png" alt="" width="46" height="29" style="width: 46px; height: 29px;"/></a></td><td style="width: 470px; padding-top: 12px; color: #41424e; font-size: 13px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">Virus-free.<a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank" style="color: #4453ea;">www.avg.com</a></td></tr></table><a href="#DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2" width="1" height="1"> </a></div></body></html>