<html><body style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><div>Tony,</div><div><br /></div><div>A new term for me after all these years (started betting on races as a 12yo).</div><div><br /></div><div>What is " a result down the back"?</div><div><br /></div><div>cheers,</div><div><br /></div><div>LBL<br /></div><p> </p><br /><blockquote><br />----- Original Message -----<br /><div style="width:100%;background:rgb(228,228,228);"><div style="font-weight:bold;">From:</div> "AusRace Racing Discussion List" <racing@ausracecom></div><br /><div style="font-weight:bold;">To:</div>"AusRace Racing Discussion List" <racing@ausrace.com><br /><div style="font-weight:bold;">Cc:</div><br /><div style="font-weight:bold;">Sent:</div>Fri, 27 Jan 2023 10:55:01 +0800<br /><div style="font-weight:bold;">Subject:</div>[AusRace] Manfroi Methods - systems<br /><br /><br />
In the 60's Manfroi was a race horse form analysis tutor based in Melbourne.<br />
He had a course you signed up to, paid your money, and went to school a<br />
couple of days a month (week?)<br /><br />
He considered the horse as a tertiary ( he could have said third) element in<br />
form analysis. First was the trainer then the jockey, then the horse. His<br />
course notes are listed as primary, secondary, tertiary, quaternary (the<br />
track), quinary (the distance), septenary (weight) etc .<br /><br />
Manfroi had quite a few systems. None of these will be examined in detail in<br />
this.<br /><br />
One element he dwellt upon/over was barrier(s). This was sept something<br />
(sepsis?).<br /><br />
He analysed form in a race in barrier order 1, then 2, etc. <br />
First he found out how many runners (and so barriers) then deducted one from<br />
that - say 11 contestants - 1 =10<br /><br />
10 was the 'baseline' and from this were deductions for form elements<br />
considered helpful to the chance of the horse<br /><br />
1. runs since a spell - no more than 5 - although today can be its 6th run<br />
(from a spell) and can be included if it has not had more than 5 runs (up to<br />
this point in time?) 10 -1 = 9<br />
2. age - no runner older than 5 years. 9-1 = 8<br />
3. distance - if it has raced over the distance or similar. 8-1 =7<br />
4. track - it it has run at the track. 7-1 =6<br />
5. jockey- if todays jockey has ridden it any time = 6-1 = 5<br />
6. barrier - if the barrier today is helpful. 5- 1 = 4<br /><br />
That was it, primarily. <br /><br />
To clarify the runs from a spell clause, today can be its 6th run and that<br />
is acceptable, but the rules say one thing and the explanation says another<br />
- no more than 5, or 6 if it has had 5 previous (which doesn't make much<br />
sense)<br />
Age, no older than 5, but in order to corral a good bet you could go to 6<br />
years or 7 years if there was recent good form to draw upon, (and I don't<br />
know what that means either), but it had to be a one off thing, once a race,<br />
and applied to all runners.<br />
Distance is self explanatory (D or d) in old form guides but that doesn't<br />
allow for a run and a result down the back<br />
Track is self explanatory (T or t) in old form guides but that doesn't allow<br />
for a run and a result down the back<br />
Jockey is self explanatory<br />
Barrier is not explained - inside and including 7 is in the course notes.<br /><br />
Some results included<br /><br />
The jockey aspect was unique. Manfroi recorded the past 4 finish positions<br />
of the jockeys under form investigation - eg the jockeys riding from<br />
barriers 1 - 7 above and added that data to the other information to assist<br />
him in deciding a bet. He used the last four starts.<br /><br />
At Sandown today, before racing started, Oliver had finish (form) figures of<br />
3,2,6,1,3 - his last ride was a third, his second last ride was a win.<br />
Manfroi took those finish figures and took them away from the number of<br />
starters in each race. Last ride 3rd for Ollie shows he was in with 11<br />
others in that race, 12 in all so he beat home 9 runners. Manfroi calculated<br />
that he beat home 75% of the runners in that race (9/12 *100). He, Manfroi,<br />
did that calculation for all 4 rides. The Oliver form finish figures are a<br />
little bendable. This morning he was 32613, and next time out he will be<br />
13308 after racing Thursday.<br /><br />
This morning Ollie had these figures (9-3<br />
=6)+(9-2=7)+(9-6=3)+(9-1=8)+(9-3=6) and summing the residuals we got <br />
6+7+3+8+6 = 30. He ran in races against 8 other runners (he made up the 9)<br />
so he opposed 40 other runners (5* 8) and beat 30 of those home - 30/40 *100<br />
= 75 per cent.<br /><br />
RewardBet has a page where you can download jockey figures on a daily basis.<br />
Greg Conroy has approved its use here <br /><br />
See: https://www.dropbox.com/s/czh7rrm57fvwbi9/RB_Jockeyform.xlsm?dl=0<br /><br />
Thanks Greg and RewardBet<br /><br />
There are several ways to use the form data for jockeys. Each race is a<br />
different event not linked to the race before.<br /><br />
(a) The form figures could be multiplied together to get a mass total -<br />
small numbers are better<br />
(b) Divide the total by the two bigger numbers - you are crediting the<br />
jockey with two substandard performances, either of his making or the horse<br />
s/he rode. <br />
(c) sum the form figures - small numbers are better. This was commonplace in<br />
the hey day of systems.<br />
(d) use slippage - using Ollies 32613 it goes 3-2+2-6+6-1+1-3 = 1+-4+5+-2 =<br />
0. That shows that Ollie is neutral at this point. It also shows that races<br />
are affected by results over time. They're not.<br /><br />
There is more - perhaps next time<br /><br />
Cheers<br /><br />
Tony<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />
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