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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>This is the fourth action in a suite of 5 rules of a system named 'Finesse'<br>sold in Australia in the 70's.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(a)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]>Check to see if this race has entrants with form – all entrants must have 4 or more starts.<span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(b)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]>Race distance as per action 1 (they mean <=1800)<span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(c)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]>Select the entrant who has finished 6<sup>th</sup> or better in its career<span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(d)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]>Select the entrant who has finished within 5 lengths of the winner (or won?) in its career.<span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(e)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]>Record their names in the selection array (it’s a form you had to Xerox to use)<span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph style='text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2'><![if !supportLists]><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>(f)<span style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]>From these entrants (c+d selections) and using the criteria in section 1 make your selections<span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoListParagraph><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>The criteria are starting at the top weight select the first 5-6 horses which qualify under this rule.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>I checked a few races like that to get 99% (a guess) of placegetters (off 51 races) except some (only a few) races<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>had selections outside the top weights. Check it for yourself.<br><br><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'> cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com] <br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 30 January 2022 8:29 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> RE: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lindsay – that is what the book says – runners out for 46 days are now considered as first up (after a spell). The author also gives examples where other delays (returns to racing) can be found when examining a horse racing record. In the example I used the author shows a first up, then a delay of 9 days, 21 days then 37 days and he (the author) says the run on the 9 days is too far back in the form record to have an effect, a bearing, on the upcoming race. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Personally, I use the last 4 runs no matter (time span excluded and this may include a spell – I use the efforts in a race) and then only the 3 best of the four, no matter when those runs arrived in the form score time line.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>I have noticed that distance runners (Cup horses say) often have two runs in 14 days, and four runs in a month. Cam, once a neighbour and a trainer and a bookie, maintained that sprinters (up to 1400) need the extra time and oats to get their strength and speed. Distance horses need to be empty (do I have to explain) but hydrated and may have a large feed after a race but very little in the 48 hours before. None of this fascinating alimentary canal information is in the book btw.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>‘Finesse’ relies on horses resuming and gaining fitness through racing – it ain’t that scientifik really. There is plenty of research (statistical examinations I meant) – see Knowles, or Biggs in particular, both of whom did some number crunching to answer the question ‘what form value can you apply to day since last start’<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>How do you deal with the days away from racing – moderate, include or exclude the form data?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Racing [</span><a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Race Stats<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 30 January 2022 7:02 PM<br><b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <</span><a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>racing@ausrace.com</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Not too sure about this…<o:p></o:p></span></p><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>“</span><span style='color:black'>Horses running on or after the 46th day are considered to be first up. First<o:p></o:p></span></pre><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>up is a bonus. There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise called<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>results) that shows first uppers win races, more than expected, calculated,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>more than their share, more than people (other form tutors) give them credit<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>for.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lindsay<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Racing <</span><a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Tony Moffat<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 30 January 2022 7:05 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <</span><a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>racing@ausrace.com</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Northerly – yes to Blakemore see: </span><a href="http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/2020-October/001115.html"><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/2020-October/001115.html</span></a><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Wonder what didn’t happen back then. I spoke with Mr Blakemore and got his permission to quote from his books. I sent some information through to him, essentially the email composition which appeared on Ausrace later, then had a reply ready to go regarding a mail from LBL but, for completeness sent it through to Mr Blakemore for information/involvement/approval and heard nothing back – although he had been responding readily to that point. I had tacit approval to continue with the discussion of his books, and the expose of what he was on about, but the steam went out of the discussion because of his silence. I have rung twice subsequently but no answer. I moved on. I hope he is ok.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>As to success of “Finesse” perhaps I’ll watch it for a while – I have it on an Excel sheet with data updating from Punting Form and when the next $101 winner arrives (there have been others) I’ll tell youse about it agin<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Racing [</span><a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>] <b>On Behalf Of </b></span><a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 30 January 2022 3:26 PM<br><b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <</span><a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>racing@ausrace.com</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Tony, I presume you've got Barry Blakemore's <i>Fitness the Key to Winning?</i><o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>It was interesting at the time. I tried to test a few of his findings a few years ago but either they didn't hold up or I didn't program it properly.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Plus stayers are prepared differently these days, which doesn't really help. <o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Sun, 30 Jan 2022 at 16:24, Tony Moffat <<a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com">tonymoffat@bigpond.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal>So, how did it go? Selections made after the race.<br><br>Rosehill - nil selections<br>MV - Race 8 Lunar Hero - 15.00 2nd<br>I checked some other meetings - nil contenders<br><br>Apologies for sending that other mail (Carnival) - more on that later m'be<br>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Racing [mailto:<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat<br>Sent: Saturday, 29 January 2022 9:12 AM<br>To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>Subject: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse<br><br>This is the third action in a suite of 5 rules of a system named 'Finesse'<br>sold in Australia in the 70's.<br><br>(a) for each 'entrant' find the date of its last spell<br>(b) count the number of runs it has had since resuming from a spell<br>(c) add 1 to the number ascertained - first up is 1, 2nd up is 2<br>(d) sort the horses carrying over the average weight allocated to 'entrants'<br>- (sum the weights then divide by number of runners) The selections (for<br>further consideration) come from the top weights with the most runs after a<br>spell The selections (for further consideration) come from the top weights<br>showing as greater than 9/1 in the pre post (it says morning line)<br><br>Selections are backed to PLACE only. Don't meddle with the rules, most races<br>will not have a qualifier but over 3 years of record keeping, the system<br>averaged 3 selections a week which were paying well.<br>++++++++++++++++++++++++<br><br> Typed that as shown on the piece of paper you spent $50 (+postage) to get.<br><br>Using the 9/1 rule ($10) and in the top weights is speedier and you get a<br>pick more often but the rules are linked viz most runs + >$10.<br><br>Cheers<br><br>Tony<br><br><br><br>--<br>This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.<br><a href="https://www.avg.com" target="_blank">https://www.avg.com</a><br><br><br>_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com" target="_blank">http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><br><br><br>-- <br>This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.<br><a href="https://www.avg.com" target="_blank">https://www.avg.com</a><br><br><br>_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com" target="_blank">http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div><div id=DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellpadding=0 style='border:none;border-top:solid #D3D4DE 1.0pt'><tr><td width=58 style='width:41.25pt;border:none;padding:9.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=46 height=29 id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://ipmcdn.avast.com/images/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png" alt="https://ipmcdn.avast.com/images/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png"></span></a><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=473 style='width:352.5pt;border:none;padding:9.0pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:13.5pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#41424E'>Virus-free. </span><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#4453EA'>www.avg.com</span></a><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#41424E'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>