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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Sticking to the mathematical "more than their share", for the past 7 years (I could go back further), sample size 1,167,305:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Horses with this run on or after the 46th day since their last run won 9.54%, compared to 10.37% for the others.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>If first starters (are they first-uppers?) are ignored, the figure for others becomes 10.47%.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Racing <b>On Behalf Of </b>Race Stats<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 30 January 2022 22:02 PM<br><b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Not too sure about this…<o:p></o:p></span></p><pre><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>“</span><span style='color:black'>Horses running on or after the 46th day are considered to be first up. First<o:p></o:p></span></pre><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>up is a bonus. There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise called<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>results) that shows first uppers win races, more than expected, calculated,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>more than their share, more than people (other form tutors) give them credit<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>for.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Lindsay<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#365F91;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Tony Moffat<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 30 January 2022 7:05 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Northerly – yes to Blakemore see: <a href="http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/2020-October/001115.html">http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/2020-October/001115.html</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Wonder what didn’t happen back then. I spoke with Mr Blakemore and got his permission to quote from his books. I sent some information through to him, essentially the email composition which appeared on Ausrace later, then had a reply ready to go regarding a mail from LBL but, for completeness sent it through to Mr Blakemore for information/involvement/approval and heard nothing back – although he had been responding readily to that point. I had tacit approval to continue with the discussion of his books, and the expose of what he was on about, but the steam went out of the discussion because of his silence. I have rung twice subsequently but no answer. I moved on. I hope he is ok.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>As to success of “Finesse” perhaps I’ll watch it for a while – I have it on an Excel sheet with data updating from Punting Form and when the next $101 winner arrives (there have been others) I’ll tell youse about it agin<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif;color:#1F497D;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b><a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 30 January 2022 3:26 PM<br><b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>Tony, I presume you've got Barry Blakemore's <i>Fitness the Key to Winning?</i><o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal>It was interesting at the time. I tried to test a few of his findings a few years ago but either they didn't hold up or I didn't program it properly.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Plus stayers are prepared differently these days, which doesn't really help. <o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Sun, 30 Jan 2022 at 16:24, Tony Moffat <<a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com">tonymoffat@bigpond.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal>So, how did it go? Selections made after the race.<br><br>Rosehill - nil selections<br>MV - Race 8 Lunar Hero - 15.00 2nd<br>I checked some other meetings - nil contenders<br><br>Apologies for sending that other mail (Carnival) - more on that later m'be<br>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Racing [mailto:<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat<br>Sent: Saturday, 29 January 2022 9:12 AM<br>To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>Subject: [AusRace] Fitness requirement - a system named Finesse<br><br>This is the third action in a suite of 5 rules of a system named 'Finesse'<br>sold in Australia in the 70's.<br><br>(a) for each 'entrant' find the date of its last spell<br>(b) count the number of runs it has had since resuming from a spell<br>(c) add 1 to the number ascertained - first up is 1, 2nd up is 2<br>(d) sort the horses carrying over the average weight allocated to 'entrants'<br>- (sum the weights then divide by number of runners) The selections (for<br>further consideration) come from the top weights with the most runs after a<br>spell The selections (for further consideration) come from the top weights<br>showing as greater than 9/1 in the pre post (it says morning line)<br><br>Selections are backed to PLACE only. Don't meddle with the rules, most races<br>will not have a qualifier but over 3 years of record keeping, the system<br>averaged 3 selections a week which were paying well.<br>++++++++++++++++++++++++<br><br> Typed that as shown on the piece of paper you spent $50 (+postage) to get.<br><br>Using the 9/1 rule ($10) and in the top weights is speedier and you get a<br>pick more often but the rules are linked viz most runs + >$10.<br><br>Cheers<br><br>Tony<br><br><br><br>--<br>This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.<br><a href="https://www.avg.com" target="_blank">https://www.avg.com</a><br><br><br>_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com" target="_blank">http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><br><br><br>-- <br>This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.<br><a href="https://www.avg.com" target="_blank">https://www.avg.com</a><br><br><br>_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com" target="_blank">http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div><div id=DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellpadding=0 style='border:none;border-top:solid #D3D4DE 1.0pt'><tr><td width=55 style='width:41.25pt;border:none;padding:9.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=46 height=29 style='width:.4791in;height:.302in' id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://ipmcdn.avast.com/images/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png"></span></a><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=470 style='width:352.5pt;border:none;padding:9.0pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:13.5pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#41424E'>Virus-free. <a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='color:#4453EA'>www.avg.com</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>