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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoPlainText>Tony,<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>He got this wrong, at least in the context of Australian Thoroughbred races:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise called results) that shows first uppers win races, more than expected, calculated, <span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>****more than their share****</span>, more than people (other form tutors) give them credit for.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Wrong, unconditionally wrong.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I analysed 190,000+ first-uppers (excluding first-starters) in field of 8 or more (so I can also compare Place performance, which I mostly bet), in races I have rated since 2005.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>First Ups win (and place) very significantly less than their share - 8.6%, 25.8% cf 9.3%, 28.1% for all runners, and significantly less than 2nd up (9.0, 26.9), and even more so than 3rd up (10.0, 29.3). Quickly, why are there more 2nd ups than First ups, but less 3rd ups than 2nd ups?<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>However, the market factors in the well-know (well I thought so) fact that first ups win much less than their share, and so the level stake return at SP of first ups is not significantly different to that of all runners.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>LBL<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat<br>Sent: Friday, 23 October 2020 1:27 AM<br>To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br>Subject: [AusRace] Fitness - The Key to Winning - a system</span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Fitness -The Key to Winning<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Barry J Blakemore wrote a series of horse racing form study books. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I have contacted the author and obtained his permission to quote from his books Copyright Barrymore Publications - PO Box 673 BUDERIM Queensland 4556 Thank you Mr Blakemore Ref 07 5476***2 <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>"Fitness -The Key to Winning" 1993 (56 pages) says this:- 52% winning runners (from multiple runners) when runners conform with an exposed frequency, when runners start within a few days of a previous run their winning chances improve, markedly - I did not know that and it's in the book. Yes it is specific and applicable to a select group but it is a powerful stat and one that is repeated over various distances of races.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The author uses FITNESS PATTERNS to show and explain the likely capability of horses generally, and specifically, if runners have attributes shown to enable them to win, run above expectations, or tire and lose.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Runners, and their re-appearance at the races are categorized (simplified) as thus, these are the FITNESS PATTERNS<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>1 to 9 days - simplified to 7 days<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>10 to 17 days - simplified to 14 days<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>18 to 24 days - simplified to 21 days<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>On up to<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>39 to 45 days - simplified to 42 days<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Horses running on or after the 46th day are considered to be first up. First up is a bonus. There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise called<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>results) that shows first uppers win races, more than expected, calculated, more than their share, more than people (other form tutors) give them credit for.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>An example of how the book shows us FITNESS PATTERNS - a runner with 9 days until its next run, then another run on the 19th day along until a third run on the 39th day in is shown as 9/19/39 which simplifies to 35/21/7 ( see above). Runs before the 9th day appearance are disregarded, considered to be<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>too far back in the form score to affect its endeavours now. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The author then divides races into divisions (1000/1100m- 1200m-1300/1400m, 1500/1600m, etc. until races over 2100m+ are dealt with as a large group.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Nonetheless, within those divisions there are FITNESS PATTERNS/niches that have percentage scores way over and above other PATTERNS around them. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>So in each race you have runners who had their last starts some days ago, varying, and those gaps in the days have a value that increases, or decreases, dependent on the time gap, and also affected by the distance of the race to be contested. The authors research has shown, or revealed, niches where runners are more likely to prove competitive, or importantly, when and where they can be discounted as possibilities. Sprinters need time to recuperate, distance runners need racing to keep them ticking along, first uppers over sprint distances are dynamite (I said that), 3 runs in 31 days can be a good thing, or a bad thing, a great thing or an occasion when a judgement is required - it's in the book.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Further reviews of the authors other books will be posted soon.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>The Key Factor is Fitness 1997 - Barrymore Publications The Key Factor is Fitness - The System 1997 82 pages - Barrymore Publications The Secrets of Class and other Key Factors 2000 180 pages - Barrymore Publications The Secrets of Class - The System 2001 -80 pages - Barrymore Publications Weights Right 2004 136 pages - Barrymore Publications These publications are an intellectual investment in winner finding, horse racing generally, honest and earnest reasoning regarding the punt. The Secrets of Class (both) are well researched and well written. The same can be said of Weights Right. The others are a little dated. All books hold true to the method(s) written about in The Key Factor is Fitness. They are all out of print.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Thank you Mr Blakemore<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Cheers<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Tony<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>--<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="https://www.avg.com"><span style='color:black;text-decoration:none'>https://www.avg.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Racing mailing list<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com"><span style='color:black;text-decoration:none'>Racing@ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com"><span style='color:black;text-decoration:none'>http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>