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Thanks for the thoughts and feedback Sean. <br>
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I am not really trying to find the favourite but just looking for a few more percent of odds on selections, alternatively I need to reduce losers in the selection set. For me, using all the standard things of form attributes/ratings to eliminate selections
does nothing but reduce the quantity of bets without really changing the POT. <br>
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If I monitor the betting movements before betting I can successfully reduce the selection set but that means I need to spend more time than I am prepared to invest watching computer screens. Lifes short and that is not how I am prepared to use it.
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If the opportunity to find the extra percentage is too challenging perhaps people may be prepared to share what they have found to be the most influential criteria when reducing the number of losing selections in a set that the market does not focus on. For
my selection sets I wont bet outside track rating 3,4,5 or 6 as history for me shows the market overbets the other track conditions. I dont mind betting in mdns where there is a zero winning % but then if outside a mdn I want to know selections have a greater
than 10% strike rate as I have also found the 1-10% range of horses are overbet and typically occupied by non winners/triers.
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I am sure there are things out there that have not occurred to me and wondering if others are prepared to share their thoughts.<br>
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Peter<br>
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<div id="divRplyFwdMsg" dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="font-size:11pt" color="#000000"><b>From:</b> Racing <racing-bounces@ausrace.com> on behalf of sean mclaren <seanmac4321@gmail.com><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, December 18, 2019 7:29:55 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing@ausrace.com><br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB</font>
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<div dir="ltr">hello len
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<div>a wealth of info, as usual; i see.</div>
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<div>i didn't see that coming i must admit.</div>
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<div>Peter, i concede; that being able to predict the fav at 9.00 am; is difficult.</div>
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<div>Can I preface that by, if you haven't tried.</div>
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<div>I have data, lots of it. So I went and attempted to do just that, some time back.</div>
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<div>The exercise was simply to improve my understanding of the wagering landscape.</div>
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<div>At the time, it wasn't an attempt to form any sort of wagering strategy. </div>
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<div>Can I predict the favourite? What factors contribute to the arrival of the fav?</div>
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<div>Part of my daily routine sees me modelling, from time to time; different sets of data.<br>
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<div>Sometimes it's a blessing, sometimes it can be a curse. </div>
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<div>Having loads of data, that is. Getting lost in the sea of data lol.</div>
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<div>The results were positive. <br>
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<div>I would encourage you Peter, and anyone else for that matter; to simply practice.</div>
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<div>Keep, what the MBA types call, a decision making journal. (michael mauboussin)</div>
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<div>A notepad, a spreadsheet ..... whatever.</div>
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<div>Draw up column headings with MAIN factors. </div>
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<div>Don't go wide. Simply use a Form Guide. A wealth of information at a glance.</div>
<div>Yes, you can use the 100 Score/Rating that's published.</div>
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<div>In arriving at MAIN factors, to start with, simply use what you THINK. </div>
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<div>As you move forward, perhaps it ain't what it seems.<br>
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<div>I think it's Rob W, who coined the phrase " the lie of the eye".</div>
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<div>In this case, maybe "the lie of what you think".</div>
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<div>As the results flow, perhaps leave as is, if some other factor pops up, then add to the side.<br>
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<div>Even restart the cycle, with that added factor; if you want.</div>
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<div>Peter, if you followed this exercise; your ability to predict the favourite; surely has changed.</div>
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<div>Do I need to say, we are not looking at winning favs here, simply what is the FAV.</div>
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<div>The purpose of me putting pen to paper, apologies for the wordiness; is to simply challenge people's thinking.</div>
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<div>And hopefully lead to better wagering. </div>
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<div>Ponder this, sitting there at 8.45 am and seeing that your top selection is on the 3rd line.</div>
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<div>And, you predict your selection will be the SP Fav. </div>
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<div>Ignore that it's your selection even.</div>
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<div>Your selection is pre post Fav, and you predict another horse will be Fav.</div>
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<div>Gotta stop. You can predict the fav. You won't do it with 100% accuracy. </div>
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<div>The point is, your thinking has changed. </div>
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<div>And it follows that you will make better wagering decisions.</div>
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<div>having software would surely </div>
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<div dir="ltr" class="x_gmail_attr">On Tue, Dec 17, 2019 at 7:34 PM L.B.Loveday <<a href="mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au">lloveday@ozemail.com.au</a>> wrote:<br>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">Peter, you are still around!<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?)<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late scratchings (after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW,
Vic, Tas, SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than TAB.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black">Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and don't forget their disclaimer "</span><strong><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif">Price comparison removes Betfair commission charges"
</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif; font-weight:normal">- that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB dividend.</span></strong><b><span style="color:black">
<u></u><u></u></span></b></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><b><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></b></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><b><span style="color:black">LBL<u></u><u></u></span></b></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><b><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></b></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><b><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></b></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US"> Racing
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Peter Dean<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
<b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:black">Hi,<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:black">Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:black">Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:black">Thanks in advance,<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:black"><u></u> <u></u></span></p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12pt; color:black">Peter<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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