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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Been out, returned just before the next bet (I've just 12 for the day) Mudgee 6/10, 2.20 with B365 at 9:00:20am (they don't bet before the MBL time).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>At scheduled jump time, 1.86 was top offered price and indicative BSP 1.71. Final top offered price 1.88 and BSP 1.98. Final top Fixed Place price was 1.70 from TAB.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>The other 10 are:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Mudge 7/5 3.10P<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Randw 4/8 7.50P<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Mudge 8/15 11.0P<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>MtGmb 5/9 7.50P<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Randw 5/8 8.00P<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Devon 4/7 4.20P<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Randw 6/7 2.30P LATE SCRATCHING, now 2 divs with Fixed Prices.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>MtGmb 8/1 2.50P<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>MVall 4/1 4.00W<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>SCoas 3/3 3.50P <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>I'll be at the pub during the running of them all except Mudge 7, so no reports will be forthcoming!<br><br><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US> Racing <b>On Behalf Of </b>sean mclaren<br><b>Sent:</b> Friday, 6 December 2019 15:38 PM<br><b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] One for Len<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Len<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>The fact that you are doing this both before after the POC intro, is excellent. <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Like fishing, you have to know the right spot lol.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>rgds Sean<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div><div><p class=MsoNormal>On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 1:47 PM L.B.Loveday <<a href="mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au">lloveday@ozemail.com.au</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0cm'><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13 at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to MBL at any time.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064). Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea, but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my experience, typical.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair, you are competing with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair turnover!</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners, no late scratchings:</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>Final Average Win% book </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>11/2015 108.1</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>11/2016 108.6</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>11/2017 109.1</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>11/2018 109.2</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>11/2019 110.6</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>Final Average Win% book </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>All 2015 107.8</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>All 2016 108.1</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>All 2017 109.1</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>All 2018 109.9</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>All 2019 109.7</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:blue'>Final </span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>average Place% book </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>11/2015 108.5</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>11/2016 108.4</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>11/2017 109.2</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>11/2018 110.8</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>11/2019 110.8</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:blue'>Final </span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>average Place% book </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>All 2015 108.1</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>All 2016 107.6</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>All 2017 108.9</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>All 2018 109.8</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>All 2019 110.2</span><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by commission.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the horse you want to back.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all):</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'>Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 - from Dynamic Odds figures.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:black'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span lang=EN-US>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US> Racing <b>On Behalf Of </b>Ken Blake<br><b>Sent:</b> Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] One for Len</span><o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'>Mike….I just don’t understand why anyone would have accounts with these thieves,</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'>They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most annoyingly act with impunity most of the time.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'>I understand Len’s Modus Operandi is early bet placement…but what’s the point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'>I just don’t get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price against Corporate opening prices….over the journey you’re probably in front with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'>Ken</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span style='color:#1F497D'> </span><o:p></o:p></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span lang=EN-US>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US> Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b><a href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au" target="_blank">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a><br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM<br><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a><br><b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] One for Len</span><o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486" target="_blank">https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486</a><o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal>_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com" target="_blank">http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></body></html>