<html><head></head><body><div style="font-family: Verdana;font-size: 12.0px;"><div>right on the $ with trainers and their names.</div>
<div>I discovered 5 different ways of sexing the rider out of the form guides</div>
<div>Mr, Mrs,Miss,Ms, and nothing</div>
<div>About the only thing more exciting is keeping tabs on tracks with a sponsor.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In my list of things that should win, L Meech shows a lousy profit, so i think she is overbet.</div>
<div>
<div>53 races last year, wins 19, and a return of $54.05.</div>
<div>it could be my software, but:</div>
<div>j stanley 83 races, wins 35, return $97.5</div>
<div>b avdulla 50 races 25 wins, return $59.0</div>
<div> </div>
<div>your rider ranker post was illuminating. thanks.</div>
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<div style="margin:0 0 10px 0;"><b>Sent:</b> Friday, January 25, 2019 at 2:03 PM<br/>
<b>From:</b> "L.B.Loveday" <lloveday@ozemail.com.au><br/>
<b>To:</b> "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <racing@ausrace.com><br/>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">I find analysing trainers, let alone incorporating them into ratings, much more problematical than jockeys. The data I receive is far less consistent, and while I hunt down who the jockey actually was when there is the all too often discrepancy, and ensure, as far as I can, accuracy and consistency, I don't undertake the same effort wrt trainers.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">From Roman's 7,516 runs for Weir, I figure he's using data from about the start of 2017, which raises the question of how far back do you go - in both time and runs. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Here's some trainers in my data who may be the D Hayes Roman refers to - </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">D Hayes </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">D J Hayes </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">D & B Hayes & T </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">David Hayes </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">David Hayes & To</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">D, B & T Hayes &</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Apart from the difficulty of determining who's who, there is the question of who is actually training and the continuity of "dynasties" - CS, Peter and David Hayes, the Cummings's, Hawkes's … When an heir apparent takes over as the listed trainer, do you start rating afresh?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">How different from jockeys - there is just one, discrete jockey on each runner. MBeadman did not continue the riding of his father - he started from scratch and there was no phasing in or continuity from D to B.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">I presume these are all for Gai Waterhouse, but it's beyond the ability of this number cruncher to be sure:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">G Waterhouse & A</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Ms G Waterhouse </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">G & A Waterhouse</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Then, what about when Gai is at Royal Ascot or on a skiing holiday and she does not run her expert eye over the horses or give final instructions to jockeys? You can be the named trainer while 20,000km away, but is the same job done? With a jockey, who is named is who you get.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">D K Weir is at least unambiguous in my data, BUT, I looked at several public-domain sites and their figures are all over the place. So, I looked at darrenweirracing.com and they claim 3535 winners at a strike rate of 20.58, from which I infer 17,177 runners. BUT, my data has D K Weir with 24,740 runners since 1/1/1995 for 3,896 winners (I can't be bothered looking at my archived data to go back further).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">I'll leave rating trainers to those who have personal, as distinct from digital only, data.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">LBL</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span>From:</span></b><span> Racing <racing-bounces@ausrace.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Roman<br/>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, 25 January 2019 8:51 AM<br/>
<b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br/>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Hi Tony,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">I respect the fact you have your way that works for you as Sean has his. That’s how the punt goes for those keen enough to go past “pluck a duck” with a cursory ten minute look or listen to various tipsters.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">The one constant I can quote is that the racetrack market is what I call “linear”. I assume that’s the correct term where I mean favs win more times than 2<sup>nd</sup> favs who win more than 3<sup>rd</sup> favs and so on. Thus the SP figure is linear in that $2.50 chances win more than $4 chances who win more than $7 chances and so on. I am sure we all agree that this general premise is correct in the high 90’s percentage wise.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Therefore, the rating of jockeys and trainers can be aligned to this premise and their LOT or POT should give a reasonably clear picture of whether they are up to the market assessment. Where this can go asunder a fraction is that top trainers runners are overbet by a lazy public who think the likes of Waller Hayes and Weir can train every favourite to win. As most on this site realise many of their horses are “unders”. Nevertheless that can be factored in.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">In the file I have DKWeir 7516 runners for minus 23.8%LOT, D Hayes 4710 for -17.6% LOT however at $3 or less Weir 1053 runners for -5.1% whilst Hayes with 529 runners is -11.2%.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">So, if betting all odds, as I assume you do, you would use the larger set you would credit Hayes with more points. The favs punters would give DKW a better figure.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">These figures are, of course, open to all sorts of personal interpretation if I add that overall from 7513 runners at $3 or less covering all trainers the LOT is 8.1%. I am not sure but would 5.1 divided by 8.1% give a figure or should it be vice versa.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Naturally, a similar process for jockeys would find some riders of $3 or less chances, for instance, better than others. From there some jockey/trainer combos would be another facet i.e. Yendall/Weir, Allen/Weir, Bowman/Waller et al but a downside for some combos would be not enough runs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">However, all said above is just one way!!</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Cheers</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Roman</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">From:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;"> Racing [</span><a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Tony Moffat<br/>
<b>Sent:</b> Friday, January 25, 2019 1:59 AM<br/>
<b>To:</b> </span><a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:racing@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">racing@ausrace.com</span></a><br/>
<span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Len – thanks</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Kozzi’s assertion that the iv are poles apart does not hold up here – I have similar scores to yours. I leave mine at 1.15 for Guymer and you promote him by multiplying by a hundred (de-decimate?) to get 115 (I guess).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">I wanted a score in the here and now and that is how/why I came to derive the iv, it is contemporaneous with other riders in this race, their presence affects its score somewhat, a little, and never majorly. It is not uniquely mine, by the way. It involves the use of all the placings, I had included the win record only, then added second place(s) to see how that ran and have reverted to this input now.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">My calculations are in the mould of ‘ok, what can you do’, looking forward, and others can be described as ‘look what I done’.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">The inclusion of performance at price bands might be the best but I don’t have that data, the prices of past endeavors. I can access it, the prices, but choose not to manually enter it, and who would do that. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Yes, I do iv for jockeys (as you know) and also trainer, horse, distance and form and multiply these to get a value for each runner – highest is best. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Form is a two part process. I involve their last 4 runs by multiplying the places together, remove the worst result, then rank that – this appears to be strong information, and has always been.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">As a factor in a weight rating process used, I again involve their places but this time I start from a base of 9 (the worst there can be) then subtract each succeeding run from the previous product until I get a score from which I can calculate a rating to win. So 6214, comes out as -3,-4,-1,3 and when summed this is -3+-4+-1+3 = -5. The -3(minus three) came from 6-9 = -3, the -4 (minus 4) came from 6-2 = -4, the -1 (minus 1) came from 2-1 =-1, and the (+)3 came from 4 minus 1 = +3. The -5 for this runner, and the calculated scores for all runners is then multiplied by 1.5 to give a weight rating variation and this product is then added to the limit weight for this race and the allocated weight deducted from that. The best result, the highest/biggest number resulting from that is considered the best for this race, and you can zero that against the other calculated weights to sort out the weight rated best ranking.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">I use a variation of this method in my own punting, having streamlined a few of the calculations, but the principles are the same, and the selections also. I back more than one runner in each chosen race, often a quinella now, and for several years, with a saver on some of the quinella inclusions. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">I don’t use or include the iv selections in my punting yet, I may do soon, and include it here only for information and comment.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Cheers</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Tony</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">FROM THE ARCHIVES</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>From: </span><a href="mailto:ausrace-bounces@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:ausrace-bounces@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span>ausrace-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span> [</span><a href="mailto:ausrace-bounces@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:ausrace-bounces@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span>mailto:ausrace-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span>] On Behalf Of Nick at Twonix</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>Sent: Thursday, 5 November 2015 1:29 PM</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>To: 'AusRace Mailing List' <</span><a href="mailto:ausrace@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:ausrace@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span>ausrace@ausrace.com</span></a><span>>; 'L.B.Loveday'</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span><</span><a href="mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au'; return false;" target="_blank"><span>lloveday@ozemail.com.au</span></a><span>></span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>Subject: Re: [AusRace] Michelle Payne</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>I did an analysis of 271 K Aus races rides over last 2-3 years and discovered that Male jockeys have a 2% better strike rate and a 3% better A2E (think POT betting to prices).</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>However Apprentices ( both Male and Female) have the same Strike Rate and A2E . Licensed Male jockeys have a 6% better A2E compared to Female jockeys.</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>Category Rides Wins S/Rate ExpW</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>A2E</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>Aus Races 271,662 35,340 13% 40,474 -13%</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> Female 40,478 4,626 11% 5,448 -15%</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> Apprentice 21,840 2,549 12% 2,930 -13%</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> Licensed 18,638 2,077 11% 2,518 -18%</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> Male 231,184 30,714 13% 35,026 -12%</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> Apprentice 54,329 6,789 12% 7,840 -13%</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> Licensed 176,855 23,925 14% 27,186 -12%</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>AN</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span>Len, I was able to distinguish Female jockeys in AAP data as they all start with "Ms ". I am assuming that MS Dhoni doesn't ride in Aus :-)</span></p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span>From:</span></b><span> Racing [</span><a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span>mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br/>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, January 22, 2019 9:50 AM<br/>
<b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <</span><a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:racing@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span>racing@ausrace.com</span></a><span>><br/>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">"Raw wins and wins and placings" don't mean much in absence of prices - it's easy to back winners; just back every runner at 1/1 or less and you'll back around 56% of winners, and "just" lose about 5.5%.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Nor is just looking at past returns enough - factors such as those you list, and eg, track, trainer should be considered.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Here's a simplistic look at some figures that could be used:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Considering the last 1000 rides for jockeys who have had at least 1000 rides in the past 14 years (a somewhat different picture arises if only considering since the advent of SOP rather than traditional SP as SOP markets have lower market%s, especially away from Sydney/Melbourne tracks):</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Best returns @ SP: </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SThornton 101</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">MJWalker 103</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">WD'Avila 103</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">CParnham 104</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">VWong 104</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">DMoor 105</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">PWells 105</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">DWBallard 107</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SFawke 113</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SGuymer 115</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JOliver 117</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">Considering only rides on horses "in the market" - gets rid of outliers like 125/1 winners:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JPStanley 100</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JPracey-Holm 100</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JTaylor 100</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">MWeir 100</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">RFradd 100</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">RonStewart 100</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">KWalters 102</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SLisnyy 102</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">LJMeech 103</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">TPannell 103</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">CGallagher 104</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">RMaloney 106</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">CHall 107</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">BWerner 108</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">DWBallard 108</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JLyon 109</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">PWells 109</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SThornton 109</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">CNutman 110</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">VBolozhinsky 112</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">Worst returns @SP:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">LGHenry 21</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JeffKehoe 31</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">DPitomac 33</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">TJeffries 33</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SBayliss 34</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JMissen 36</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">MJStephens 37</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">ABadger 38</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">NRose 38</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SStarley 38</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">ECockram 39</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JKeating 39</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">MHackett 39</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">RYetimova 39</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SParnham 39</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">Considering only rides on horses "in the market" (as I've previously said LGHenry is in a class of her own):</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">LGHenry 27</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">MJStephens 32</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SBayliss 36</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">CBryen 41</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JMissen 43</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SGalvin 45</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SStarley 45</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">ABadger 46</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">DPitomac 46</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">BPowell 47</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">MHackett 47</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SParnham 47</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">BStower 48</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">PaulPayne 49</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">CQuilty 50</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">The big gaps - All "in market"</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SFawke 113 79</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">WD'Avila 103 75</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">MJWalker 103 76</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JOliver 117 91</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">BMertens 88 63</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JTaylor 69 100</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">NPunch 60 95</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">JeffKehoe 31 72</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">SLisnyy 61 102</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">CHall 66 107</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Courier New";color: black;">VBolozhinsky 70 112</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span>From:</span></b><span> Racing <</span><a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span>racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Roman<br/>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, 21 January 2019 9:34 PM<br/>
<b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <</span><a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:racing@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span>racing@ausrace.com</span></a><span>>; </span><a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span>tonymoffat@bigpond.com</span></a><br/>
<span><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Hi all,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">The fascination of it all is that two raters could have the same jockey literally poles apart depending on criterias chosen.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">I have never rated jockeys nor trainers as I wonder if there is all that much between a number of them at the top level. If the SP figures is a solid determinant of the overall structure of horse racing does it not figure those jockeys that ride well on well fancied horses are giving the horses the chance of winning the market determines. Say Jockey A has 100 rides in races in town on favs and scores 35% of the time is he not a fraction better than Jockey B who rides 32%. So the next time the two jockeys meet on say favs at 2/1 and 9/4 (close) but the 32% jockey rides an on pacer and the 35% jockey rides a chronic get back type where does the ratings look now. It would be best to rate them all on their ability with leaders, on pacers, mid fielders and get back types and another set of figures comes up far more accurate, imho, than just a raw wins and wins and placings.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">I look forward to Len’s reply.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);">Roman Koz</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: rgb(31,73,125);"> </span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">From:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;"> Racing [</span><a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br/>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, January 21, 2019 6:12 PM<br/>
<b>To:</b> </span><a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">tonymoffat@bigpond.com</span></a><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">; </span><a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" onclick="parent.window.location.href='mailto:racing@ausrace.com'; return false;" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;">racing@ausrace.com</span></a><br/>
<span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: Tahoma , sans-serif;"><b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] Jockeys generally</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Tony,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;">LBL</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40% advanced</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">on some others in this race.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a good</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">.6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">.31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">that value to it early in the calculation.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is a</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">individually determine an iv. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">in the sub $2 range, most of us really. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is again</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of the</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">overall stat picture</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">that.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">a race</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">Dylan Dunn = 1.1</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;font-family: "Courier New";">in it, nor do I suggest you do.</span></p>
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