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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Hi Tony,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'> I respect the fact you have your way that works for you as Sean has his. That’s how the punt goes for those keen enough to go past “pluck a duck” with a cursory ten minute look or listen to various tipsters.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>The one constant I can quote is that the racetrack market is what I call “linear”. I assume that’s the correct term where I mean favs win more times than 2<sup>nd</sup> favs who win more than 3<sup>rd</sup> favs and so on. Thus the SP figure is linear in that $2.50 chances win more than $4 chances who win more than $7 chances and so on. I am sure we all agree that this general premise is correct in the high 90’s percentage wise.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Therefore, the rating of jockeys and trainers can be aligned to this premise and their LOT or POT should give a reasonably clear picture of whether they are up to the market assessment. Where this can go asunder a fraction is that top trainers runners are overbet by a lazy public who think the likes of Waller Hayes and Weir can train every favourite to win. As most on this site realise many of their horses are “unders”. Nevertheless that can be factored in.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>In the file I have DKWeir 7516 runners for minus 23.8%LOT, D Hayes 4710 for -17.6% LOT however at $3 or less Weir 1053 runners for -5.1% whilst Hayes with 529 runners is -11.2%.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>So, if betting all odds, as I assume you do, you would use the larger set you would credit Hayes with more points. The favs punters would give DKW a better figure.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>These figures are, of course, open to all sorts of personal interpretation if I add that overall from 7513 runners at $3 or less covering all trainers the LOT is 8.1%. I am not sure but would 5.1 divided by 8.1% give a figure or should it be vice versa.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Naturally, a similar process for jockeys would find some riders of $3 or less chances, for instance, better than others. From there some jockey/trainer combos would be another facet i.e. Yendall/Weir, Allen/Weir, Bowman/Waller et al but a downside for some combos would be not enough runs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>However, all said above is just one way!!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Roman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Tony Moffat<br><b>Sent:</b> Friday, January 25, 2019 1:59 AM<br><b>To:</b> racing@ausrace.com<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Len – thanks<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Kozzi’s assertion that the iv are poles apart does not hold up here – I have similar scores to yours. I leave mine at 1.15 for Guymer and you promote him by multiplying by a hundred (de-decimate?) to get 115 (I guess).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I wanted a score in the here and now and that is how/why I came to derive the iv, it is contemporaneous with other riders in this race, their presence affects its score somewhat, a little, and never majorly. It is not uniquely mine, by the way. It involves the use of all the placings, I had included the win record only, then added second place(s) to see how that ran and have reverted to this input now.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>My calculations are in the mould of ‘ok, what can you do’, looking forward, and others can be described as ‘look what I done’.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>The inclusion of performance at price bands might be the best but I don’t have that data, the prices of past endeavors. I can access it, the prices, but choose not to manually enter it, and who would do that. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Yes, I do iv for jockeys (as you know) and also trainer, horse, distance and form and multiply these to get a value for each runner – highest is best. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Form is a two part process. I involve their last 4 runs by multiplying the places together, remove the worst result, then rank that – this appears to be strong information, and has always been.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>As a factor in a weight rating process used, I again involve their places but this time I start from a base of 9 (the worst there can be) then subtract each succeeding run from the previous product until I get a score from which I can calculate a rating to win. So 6214, comes out as -3,-4,-1,3 and when summed this is -3+-4+-1+3 = -5. The -3(minus three) came from 6-9 = -3, the -4 (minus 4) came from 6-2 = -4, the -1 (minus 1) came from 2-1 =-1, and the (+)3 came from 4 minus 1 = +3. The -5 for this runner, and the calculated scores for all runners is then multiplied by 1.5 to give a weight rating variation and this product is then added to the limit weight for this race and the allocated weight deducted from that. The best result, the highest/biggest number resulting from that is considered the best for this race, and you can zero that against the other calculated weights to sort out the weight rated best ranking.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I use a variation of this method in my own punting, having streamlined a few of the calculations, but the principles are the same, and the selections also. I back more than one runner in each chosen race, often a quinella now, and for several years, with a saver on some of the quinella inclusions. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I don’t use or include the iv selections in my punting yet, I may do soon, and include it here only for information and comment.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>FROM THE ARCHIVES<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText>From: ausrace-bounces@ausrace.com [mailto:ausrace-bounces@ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Nick at Twonix<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Sent: Thursday, 5 November 2015 1:29 PM<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>To: 'AusRace Mailing List' <ausrace@ausrace.com>; 'L.B.Loveday'<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><lloveday@ozemail.com.au><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Subject: Re: [AusRace] Michelle Payne<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I did an analysis of 271 K Aus races rides over last 2-3 years and discovered that Male jockeys have a 2% better strike rate and a 3% better A2E (think POT betting to prices).<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>However Apprentices ( both Male and Female) have the same Strike Rate and A2E . Licensed Male jockeys have a 6% better A2E compared to Female jockeys.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Category Rides Wins S/Rate ExpW<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>A2E<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Aus Races 271,662 35,340 13% 40,474 -13%<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> Female 40,478 4,626 11% 5,448 -15%<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> Apprentice 21,840 2,549 12% 2,930 -13%<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> Licensed 18,638 2,077 11% 2,518 -18%<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> Male 231,184 30,714 13% 35,026 -12%<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> Apprentice 54,329 6,789 12% 7,840 -13%<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText> Licensed 176,855 23,925 14% 27,186 -12%<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>AN<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Len, I was able to distinguish Female jockeys in AAP data as they all start with "Ms ". I am assuming that MS Dhoni doesn't ride in Aus :-)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br><b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, January 22, 2019 9:50 AM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'>"Raw wins and wins and placings" don't mean much in absence of prices - it's easy to back winners; just back every runner at 1/1 or less and you'll back around 56% of winners, and "just" lose about 5.5%.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'>Nor is just looking at past returns enough - factors such as those you list, and eg, track, trainer should be considered.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'>Here's a simplistic look at some figures that could be used:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'>Considering the last 1000 rides for jockeys who have had at least 1000 rides in the past 14 years (a somewhat different picture arises if only considering since the advent of SOP rather than traditional SP as SOP markets have lower market%s, especially away from Sydney/Melbourne tracks):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'>Best returns @ SP: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SThornton 101<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>MJWalker 103<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>WD'Avila 103<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>CParnham 104<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>VWong 104<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>DMoor 105<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>PWells 105<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>DWBallard 107<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SFawke 113<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SGuymer 115<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JOliver 117<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Considering only rides on horses "in the market" - gets rid of outliers like 125/1 winners:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JPStanley 100<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JPracey-Holm 100<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JTaylor 100<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>MWeir 100<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>RFradd 100<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>RonStewart 100<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>KWalters 102<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SLisnyy 102<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>LJMeech 103<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>TPannell 103<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>CGallagher 104<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>RMaloney 106<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>CHall 107<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>BWerner 108<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>DWBallard 108<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JLyon 109<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>PWells 109<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SThornton 109<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>CNutman 110<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>VBolozhinsky 112<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Worst returns @SP:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>LGHenry 21<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JeffKehoe 31<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>DPitomac 33<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>TJeffries 33<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SBayliss 34<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JMissen 36<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>MJStephens 37<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>ABadger 38<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>NRose 38<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SStarley 38<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>ECockram 39<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JKeating 39<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>MHackett 39<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>RYetimova 39<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SParnham 39<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Considering only rides on horses "in the market" (as I've previously said LGHenry is in a class of her own):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>LGHenry 27<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>MJStephens 32<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SBayliss 36<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>CBryen 41<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JMissen 43<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SGalvin 45<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SStarley 45<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>ABadger 46<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>DPitomac 46<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>BPowell 47<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>MHackett 47<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SParnham 47<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>BStower 48<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>PaulPayne 49<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>CQuilty 50<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>The big gaps - All "in market"<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SFawke 113 79<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>WD'Avila 103 75<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>MJWalker 103 76<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JOliver 117 91<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>BMertens 88 63<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JTaylor 69 100<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>NPunch 60 95<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>JeffKehoe 31 72<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>SLisnyy 61 102<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>CHall 66 107<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>VBolozhinsky 70 112<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b>From:</b> Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Roman<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, 21 January 2019 9:34 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>>; <a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com">tonymoffat@bigpond.com</a><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Hi all,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>The fascination of it all is that two raters could have the same jockey literally poles apart depending on criterias chosen.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I have never rated jockeys nor trainers as I wonder if there is all that much between a number of them at the top level. If the SP figures is a solid determinant of the overall structure of horse racing does it not figure those jockeys that ride well on well fancied horses are giving the horses the chance of winning the market determines. Say Jockey A has 100 rides in races in town on favs and scores 35% of the time is he not a fraction better than Jockey B who rides 32%. So the next time the two jockeys meet on say favs at 2/1 and 9/4 (close) but the 32% jockey rides an on pacer and the 35% jockey rides a chronic get back type where does the ratings look now. It would be best to rate them all on their ability with leaders, on pacers, mid fielders and get back types and another set of figures comes up far more accurate, imho, than just a raw wins and wins and placings.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I look forward to Len’s reply.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Roman Koz<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> Racing [</span><a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</span></a><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br><b>Sent:</b> Monday, January 21, 2019 6:12 PM<br><b>To:</b> </span><a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>tonymoffat@bigpond.com</span></a><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>; </span><a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>racing@ausrace.com</span></a><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'><br><b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] Jockeys generally<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'>Tony,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'>Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'>LBL<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40% advanced<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>on some others in this race.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a good<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>.6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>.31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>that value to it early in the calculation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is a<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>individually determine an iv. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>in the sub $2 range, most of us really. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is again<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of the<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>overall stat picture<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>a race<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Dylan Dunn = 1.1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>in it, nor do I suggest you do.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-AU style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div id=DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellpadding=0 style='border:none;border-top:solid #D3D4DE 1.0pt'><tr><td width=55 style='width:41.25pt;border:none;padding:9.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='border:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in;text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=46 height=29 id="_x0000_i1025" src="cid:image001.jpg@01D4B486.A9CA6CE0" alt="Image removed by sender."></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=470 style='width:352.5pt;border:none;padding:9.0pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:13.5pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#41424E'>Virus-free. <a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='color:#4453EA'>www.avg.com</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>